Leroy Grant Regatta

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 62 37 99
2 Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 77 36 113
3 William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 87 41 128
4 Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 51 82 133
5 Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 68 72 140
6 University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 46 115 161
7 Hampton University Hampton University Pirates 78 97 175
8 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 108 97 205
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 TOT Sailors
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 2 6 3 1 4 2 3 4 3 6 6 2 1 1 1 1 46 Joshua Prucnal '16
Brandon Gotwalt '15
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 1 1 2 2 2 1 7 3 1 4 8 5 5 2 3 4 51 Zachary Schippe '14
Sean Hartigan '13
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 6 3 6 3 5 8 2 1 4 2 3 4 2 7 4 2 62 Domenic Re '15
Caroline Carney '16
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 7 7 4 6 1 4 6 2 2 3 2 3 6 4 5 6 68 John Shanahan '16
Eliza Crawford '14
Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 4 2 5 4 7 3 4 6 6 1 5 6 3 8 6 7 77 Peter Soosalu '12
William Schwenger '13
Hampton University Hampton University Pirates 3 5 1 5 3 5 1 5 7 5 7 8 7 3 8 5 78 Giuditta Di Laghi '16 [1-16]
Ramatoulie Sallah-Mohammed '15 [1-10]
Vendula Strakova '15 [11-16]
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 5 4 7 7 8 7 5 7 5 8 4 1 4 5 2 8 87 Bill Parker '14
Diana Kong-Wasielewski '14
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 8 8 8 8 6 6 8 8 8 7 1 7 OCS 6 7 3 108 Harmen Rockler '13
Katherine Frega '16
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 TOT Sailors
Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 1 1 3 2 3 3 2 3 5 5 1 3 1 1 1 1 36 Matthew Sullivan '13
Eric Goldfarb '14
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 2 5 1 1 2 1 3 1 1 1 2 4 3 2 4 4 37 Sarah Celone '13
Scott Barnhill '14
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 3 3 2 OCS 1 2 1 2 3 2 3 1 2 3 2 2 41 Scott Guinn '15 [1-16]
Kaitlynn Menoche '15 [1-4]
Ella Cahill '15 [5-16]
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 5 2 5 4 5 6 4 4 7 4 5 2 5 4 3 7 72 Chris Pomerleau '16
Mackenzie Nelson '15
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 6 4 4 6 4 5 7 6 2 3 4 5 6 5 7 8 82 Nicholas Rinaldi '14
Anthony Favo '13
Hampton University Hampton University Pirates 4 6 7 3 7 7 8 7 6 6 7 7 4 7 6 5 97 Jela-Ni Mccarthy '16
Joshua Gopeesingh '14
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 7 7 6 5 8 8 5 5 4 7 8 6 7 6 5 3 97 Nicholas Woviotis '15
Tiffany Powell '15
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 8 8 8 7 6 4 6 8 8 8 6 8 8 8 8 6 115 Jackson Dunitz '16
Kelly Grover '13
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (16 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division B

Team11B12B13B14B15B16B
Hampton UniversityHampton University Pirates666666
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps888888
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings111111
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions444444
Queen's UniversityQueen's University Gaels777777
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange222222
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats555555
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe333333

Conditions — 04/13/2013 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1014.0 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 65°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.5 kn
avg  ·  max 7.1 kn
Gusts to 15.0 kn
From SE (125°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover54% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1014.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 6 kn · E 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Christopher Newport: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.20 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christopher Newport by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (24 labelled days at Christopher Newport).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →