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# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 14–2
2 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 13–3
3 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 7–9
4 University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 4–12
5 Hampton University Hampton University Pirates 2–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 6,654 team race matches sailed before 2016-03-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 33 of 40 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.395 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.16 ± 0.27: a typical event, more orderly than 26% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1St. Mary's College of Maryland
Seahawks		29.36
school +0.65		Jonathan Lutz / Elizabeth Dennison 3.02
Liam Mccarthy / Kaisey Mccallion
Carolyn Smith / Kate Bjerregaard 2.76		69%14–2 (88%)+2.9
2Georgetown University
Hoyas		110.73Andy Reiter / Hollis Dana 3.43
Roger Dorr / Maggie Kelly 3.42
Campbell D'Eliscu / Mary Kate Mezzetti 3.81		92%13–3 (81%)−1.7
3Old Dominion University
Monarchs		38.62
school −0.29		Jeremy Herrin / Abigail Lockler 3.02
Jack Elkin / Stephen Guglielmo 3.19
Alec Chicoine / Dane Pedersen 2.58		55%7–9 (44%)−1.8
4University of Virginia
Wahoos		46.98
school −0.12		Christopher Craven / Callie Hern 2.39
Alexander Singh / Eliza Schuett
Colin Suvak / Waverlee Harvey		26%4–12 (25%)−0.2
5Hampton University
Pirates		55.77
school −0.14		Maximilian Kuester / Giuditta Di Laghi 3.03
Luca Taglialegne / Elisabeth Kuester
Jela-Ni Mccarthy / Miles Braden 0.23		8%2–14 (12%)+0.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1St. Mary's College of Maryland9.3611.1514–211.1+1.793.63%
5Hampton University5.776.332–141.3+0.560.338%
4University of Virginia6.986.894–124.2−0.090.069%
3Old Dominion University8.627.717–98.8−0.911.295%
2Georgetown University10.739.6813–314.7−1.051.497%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Carolyn SmithSt. Mary's College of Maryland2.764.5514–211.1+1.793.63%
Maximilian KuesterHampton University3.033.582–141.3+0.560.338%
Luca TaglialegneHampton University2.262.822–141.3+0.560.338%
Jela-Ni MccarthyHampton University0.230.792–141.3+0.560.338%
Christopher CravenUniversity of Virginia2.392.304–124.2−0.090.069%
Alexander SinghUniversity of Virginia2.282.194–124.2−0.090.069%
Colin SuvakUniversity of Virginia1.941.854–124.2−0.090.069%
Jeremy HerrinOld Dominion University3.022.117–98.8−0.911.295%
Alec ChicoineOld Dominion University2.581.677–98.8−0.911.295%
Andy ReiterGeorgetown University3.432.3813–314.7−1.051.497%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Old Dominion UniversityHampton University96%
12Georgetown UniversitySt. Mary's College of Maryland85%
13University of VirginiaHampton University73%
14Georgetown UniversityOld Dominion University89%
15St. Mary's College of MarylandUniversity of Virginia92%
16Georgetown UniversityHampton University99%
17St. Mary's College of MarylandOld Dominion University65%
18Georgetown UniversityUniversity of Virginia98%
19St. Mary's College of MarylandHampton University97%
110Old Dominion UniversityUniversity of Virginia85%
211Georgetown UniversityHampton University99%
212University of VirginiaOld Dominion University16%upset
213Georgetown UniversitySt. Mary's College of Maryland81%
214University of VirginiaHampton University77%
215St. Mary's College of MarylandOld Dominion University68%
216Georgetown UniversityUniversity of Virginia98%
217Old Dominion UniversityHampton University94%
218St. Mary's College of MarylandUniversity of Virginia91%
219Old Dominion UniversityGeorgetown University11%upset
220St. Mary's College of MarylandHampton University97%
321Georgetown UniversityUniversity of Virginia98%
322St. Mary's College of MarylandHampton University97%
323University of VirginiaOld Dominion University18%upset
324St. Mary's College of MarylandGeorgetown University22%upset
325Old Dominion UniversityHampton University94%
326St. Mary's College of MarylandUniversity of Virginia91%
327Georgetown UniversityHampton University99%
328St. Mary's College of MarylandOld Dominion University70%
329Hampton UniversityUniversity of Virginia23%upset
330Georgetown UniversityOld Dominion University89%
431St. Mary's College of MarylandUniversity of Virginia91%
432Georgetown UniversityOld Dominion University89%
433St. Mary's College of MarylandHampton University97%
434Old Dominion UniversityUniversity of Virginia82%
435Georgetown UniversityHampton University99%
436St. Mary's College of MarylandOld Dominion University70%
437Georgetown UniversityUniversity of Virginia97%
438Old Dominion UniversityHampton University94%
439St. Mary's College of MarylandGeorgetown University23%upset
440Hampton UniversityUniversity of Virginia22%upset

Round 1

TeamRec.SeahawksHoyasMonarchsWahoosPirates
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks3–1✕LWWW
Georgetown University Hoyas4–0W✕WWW
Old Dominion University Monarchs2–2LL✕WW
University of Virginia Wahoos1–3LLL✕W
Hampton University Pirates0–4LLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.SeahawksHoyasMonarchsWahoosPirates
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks3–1✕LWWW
Georgetown University Hoyas3–1W✕LWW
Old Dominion University Monarchs2–2LW✕LW
University of Virginia Wahoos2–2LLW✕W
Hampton University Pirates0–4LLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.SeahawksHoyasMonarchsWahoosPirates
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks4–0✕WWWW
Georgetown University Hoyas3–1L✕WWW
Old Dominion University Monarchs1–3LL✕LW
University of Virginia Wahoos1–3LLW✕L
Hampton University Pirates1–3LLLW✕

Round 4

TeamRec.SeahawksHoyasMonarchsWahoosPirates
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks4–0✕WWWW
Georgetown University Hoyas3–1L✕WWW
Old Dominion University Monarchs2–2LL✕WW
University of Virginia Wahoos0–4LLL✕L
Hampton University Pirates1–3LLLW✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Old Dominion University Monarchs 2-3-4 def. Hampton University Pirates 1-5-6
2 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-5 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3-4-6
3 University of Virginia Wahoos 1-2-6 def. Hampton University Pirates 3-4-5
4 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-6 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 3-4-5
5 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2-3-4 def. University of Virginia Wahoos 1-5-6
6 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-5 def. Hampton University Pirates 3-4-6
7 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1-3-5 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 2-4-6
8 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-3 def. University of Virginia Wahoos 4-5-6
9 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1-2-4 def. Hampton University Pirates 3-5-6
10 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-5 def. University of Virginia Wahoos 3-4-6
11 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-3 def. Hampton University Pirates 4-5-6
12 University of Virginia Wahoos 1-2-6 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 3-4-5
13 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-5 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3-4-6
14 University of Virginia Wahoos 1-2-6 def. Hampton University Pirates 3-4-5
15 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2-3-5 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-4-6
16 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-5 def. University of Virginia Wahoos 3-4-6
17 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-3-4 def. Hampton University Pirates 2-5-6
18 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1-2-5 def. University of Virginia Wahoos 3-4-6
19 Old Dominion University Monarchs 2-3-5 def. Georgetown University Hoyas 1-4-6
20 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1-2-4 def. Hampton University Pirates 3-5-6
21 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-3-4 def. University of Virginia Wahoos 2-5-6
22 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1-2-3 def. Hampton University Pirates 4-5-6
23 University of Virginia Wahoos 1-3-5 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 2-4-6
24 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3-4-5 def. Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-6 DSQ,DSQ
25 Old Dominion University Monarchs 2-3-5 def. Hampton University Pirates 1-4-6
26 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1-3-6 def. University of Virginia Wahoos 2-4-5
27 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-3 def. Hampton University Pirates 4-5-6
28 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1-3-6 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 2-4-5
29 Hampton University Pirates 1-3-6 def. University of Virginia Wahoos 2-4-5
30 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-5 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 3-4-6
31 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1-2-4 def. University of Virginia Wahoos 3-5-6
32 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-3-6 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 2-4-5
33 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2-3-4 def. Hampton University Pirates 1-5-6
34 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-3-5 def. University of Virginia Wahoos 2-4-6
35 Georgetown University Hoyas 2-3-4 def. Hampton University Pirates 1-5-6
36 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1-2-4 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 3-5-6
37 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-6 def. University of Virginia Wahoos 3-4-5
38 Old Dominion University Monarchs 2-3-4 def. Hampton University Pirates 1-5-6
39 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1-2-5 def. Georgetown University Hoyas 3-4-6
40 Hampton University Pirates 2-3-5 def. University of Virginia Wahoos 1-4-6 DNF

Conditions — 03/26/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1025.2 hPa

Temperature

53°F
↑ 55°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.3 kn
avg  ·  max 8.6 kn
Gusts to 18.7 kn
From NE (50°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1025.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Hampton — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Hampton in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hampton by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (26 labelled fleet-race days at Hampton).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →