University of Virginia '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.02 (fleet 2.80) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–23 (26%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 4–12 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 2 | 4–11 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (31 matches) the record is 8–23 against 7.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-03-26 | MAISA/SAISA | skipper | 2.39 | 2.30 | 4–12 | 4.2 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2014-03-01 | Georgetown Team Race | skipper | 2.62 | 3.70 | 3–7 | 1.4 | +1.07 | 1.3 | 15% |
| 2014-02-22 | Pirates 3 on 3 | skipper | 2.17 | 1.22 | 1–4 | 1.8 | −0.95 | 0.5 | 92% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 9 | 11.9 | 3.03 |
| MAISA/SAISA | Skipper | TR | 16 | 25% | — |
| Charleston Spring Coed | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.5 | 2.62 |
| America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs | Skipper | A | 17 | 12.2 | 2.61 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.1 | 3.37 |
| St. Mary's College of MD Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 18 | 15.1 | 1.73 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.8 | 3.48 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 12.9 | 2.70 |
| Henry Luce Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.5 | 2.63 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.4 | 2.43 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| South Spring Qualifier | Skipper | A | 13 | 1.9 | 3.40 |
| ODU Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.0 | 2.79 |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.2 | 1.96 |
| America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.2 | 3.79 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 8 | 15.1 | 1.40 |
| St. Mary's Fall Inter-Conference | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.1 | 2.92 |
| MAISA South Dinghy Fall Qualifier | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.3 | 2.58 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 7 | 9.9 | 1.96 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.1 | 2.73 |
| Luce Regatta | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.5 | 3.44 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Pirates 3 on 3 | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| MAISA/SAISA | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.6 | 2.73 |
| Gill National Champs 1st round-East | Skipper | B | 6 | 12.7 | 1.96 |
| Georgetown Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 30% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 8.6 | 2.97 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 14 | 11.7 | 2.73 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 11 | 7.5 | 3.01 |
| South #1 Dinghy Qualifier | Skipper | B | 11 | 5.5 | 2.25 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.5 | 2.05 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | B | 20 | 16.0 | 1.53 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 4 | 12.0 | 1.68 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
