Colony Cup

HostWilliam and Mary
Date09/27/2014
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Christopher Newport University	Captains Blue	9	20	29
2	Christopher Newport University	Captains Silver	22	16	38
3	William and Mary	Tribe	15	35	50
4	Hampton University	Pirates	49	8	57
5	University of Maryland	Terps	33	33	66
6	University of Virginia	Wahoos	34	38	72
7	Virginia Tech	Hokies	36	37	73
8	University of Maryland/Baltimore County	Retrievers	38	62	100
9	William and Mary	Griffin	60	41	101
10	St. John's College	Johnnies	55	49	104
11	Salisbury University	Seagulls	45	61	106

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Christopher Newport University	Captains Blue	3	1	1	1	2	1	9	Andrew Hall '17 Kaitlyn Reilly '18
William and Mary	Tribe	1	2	2	5	3	2	15	Patrick Mazzeo '18 Abraham Kruger '17
Christopher Newport University	Captains Silver	2	6	5	2	4	3	22	Amanda Attardi '17 Hanna Halleck-Pinkleton '18
University of Maryland	Terps	5	5	6	8	5	4	33	Joseph Crouse '16 Conor Waller '16
University of Virginia	Wahoos	9	3	3	4	9	6	34	Casey Firth '15 Macon Spruill '17
Virginia Tech	Hokies	4	11	4	9	1	7	36	Mckay Hanna '17 [1-6] Gillian Mccreedy '17 [1-4] Ashley Black '17 [5-6]
University of Maryland/Baltimore County	Retrievers	8	4	8	7	6	5	38	Samuel Haksteen '17 Ben Fosbaugh '17
Salisbury University	Seagulls	7	9	7	6	7	9	45	Simon Timmerman '16 Sarah Chase '16
Hampton University	Pirates	6	8	9	10	8	8	49	Jela-Ni Mccarthy '16 Joshua Williams '16
St. John's College	Johnnies	10	10	11	3	10	11	55	Nicole Pease '15 [1-6] Calida Howell '18 [1-2] Megan Mitchell '16 [3-4] Jack Cooper '18 [5-6]
William and Mary	Griffin	11	7	10	11	11	10	60	Kathleen Nelsen '17 Anna Li '17

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Hampton University	Pirates	3	1	1	1	1	1	8	Cristina Ortiz Vivas '18 Maximilian Kuester '18
Christopher Newport University	Captains Silver	1	3	4	3	2	3	16	Anders Hudson '17 [1-6] Laura Kilgore '17 [1-4] Hannah Cantolino '18 [5-6]
Christopher Newport University	Captains Blue	2	6	2	2	6	2	20	Shelby Locke '16 Benjamin Kempton '18
University of Maryland	Terps	6	4	3	6	9	5	33	Zachary Thomas '18 [1-4] Mark Shortz '15 [5-6] Dana Harriman '18 [1-4]
William and Mary	Tribe	4	5	7	8	5	6	35	Liam Farrell '18 Alexandra Tolleson '18
Virginia Tech	Hokies	8	9	5	4	3	8	37	Kris Rodriguez '15 [1-6] Ashley Black '17 [1-4] Gillian Mccreedy '17 [5-6]
University of Virginia	Wahoos	5	2	6	11	4	10	38	Turner Labrie '18 [1-6] Casey Russell '17 [1-4] Nathan Ray '17 [5-6]
William and Mary	Griffin	7	8	8	7	7	4	41	Elizabeth Ransone '18 Daniel Powers '18
St. John's College	Johnnies	9	7	11	5	8	9	49	Branham Talton '15 [1-6] Jacob Richey '18 [1-2] Nicholas Shaw '16 [3-4] Calida Howell '18 [5-6]
Salisbury University	Seagulls	DNF	10	9	9	10	11	61	Cameron Bale '15 [1-6] Sarah Chase '16 [1-2, 5-6] Anne Stanley '14 [3-4]
University of Maryland/Baltimore County	Retrievers	DSQ	DNF	10	10	11	7	62	Tina Nassehi '17 Castle Gushen '16

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.090+0.09

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Christopher Newport University Captains Blue	2	2	3	3	4	4
Christopher Newport University Captains Silver	1	1	2	2	3	3
Hampton University Pirates	3	3	4	4	5	5
University of Maryland Terps	6	6	7	7	8	8
University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers	7	7	8	8	9	9
Salisbury University Seagulls	4	4	5	5	6	6
St. John's College Johnnies	5	5	6	6	7	7
University of Virginia Wahoos	8	8	9	9	10	10
Virginia Tech Hokies	9	9	10	10	11	11
William and Mary Griffin	11	11	1	1	2	2
William and Mary Tribe	10	10	11	11	1	1

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Christopher Newport University Captains Blue	2	2	3	3	4	4
Christopher Newport University Captains Silver	1	1	2	2	3	3
Hampton University Pirates	3	3	4	4	5	5
University of Maryland Terps	6	6	7	7	8	8
University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers	7	7	8	8	9	9
Salisbury University Seagulls	4	4	5	5	6	6
St. John's College Johnnies	5	5	6	6	7	7
University of Virginia Wahoos	8	8	9	9	10	10
Virginia Tech Hokies	9	9	10	10	11	11
William and Mary Griffin	11	11	1	1	2	2
William and Mary Tribe	10	10	11	11	1	1

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Christopher Newport University	Andrew Hall '17	Kaitlyn Reilly '18
Captains Blue	Shelby Locke '16	Benjamin Kempton '18
Christopher Newport University	Amanda Attardi '17	Hanna Halleck-Pinkleton '18
Captains Silver	Anders Hudson '17 [1-6]	Laura Kilgore '17 [1-4] Hannah Cantolino '18 [5-6]
Hampton University	Jela-Ni Mccarthy '16	Joshua Williams '16
Pirates	Cristina Ortiz Vivas '18	Maximilian Kuester '18
Salisbury University	Simon Timmerman '16	Sarah Chase '16
Seagulls	Cameron Bale '15 [1-6]	Sarah Chase '16 [1-2, 5-6] Anne Stanley '14 [3-4]
St. John's College	Nicole Pease '15 [1-6]	Calida Howell '18 [1-2] Megan Mitchell '16 [3-4] Jack Cooper '18 [5-6]
Johnnies	Branham Talton '15 [1-6]	Jacob Richey '18 [1-2] Nicholas Shaw '16 [3-4] Calida Howell '18 [5-6]
University of Maryland	Joseph Crouse '16	Conor Waller '16
Terps	Zachary Thomas '18 [1-4] Mark Shortz '15 [5-6]	Dana Harriman '18 [1-4]
University of Maryland/Baltimore County	Samuel Haksteen '17	Ben Fosbaugh '17
Retrievers	Tina Nassehi '17	Castle Gushen '16
University of Virginia	Casey Firth '15	Macon Spruill '17
Wahoos	Turner Labrie '18 [1-6]	Casey Russell '17 [1-4] Nathan Ray '17 [5-6]
Virginia Tech	Mckay Hanna '17 [1-6]	Gillian Mccreedy '17 [1-4] Ashley Black '17 [5-6]
Hokies	Kris Rodriguez '15 [1-6]	Ashley Black '17 [1-4] Gillian Mccreedy '17 [5-6]
William and Mary	Kathleen Nelsen '17	Anna Li '17
Griffin	Elizabeth Ransone '18	Daniel Powers '18
William and Mary	Patrick Mazzeo '18	Abraham Kruger '17
Tribe	Liam Farrell '18	Alexandra Tolleson '18

Conditions — 09/27/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 64% · Pressure 1022.8 hPa

Temperature

72°F

↑ 76°F ↓ 62°F

Feels like 73°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.0 kn

avg · max 4.8 kn

Gusts to 12.1 kn

From NE (38°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover1% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1022.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 7 kn · E 5 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at William and Mary: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.12)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.02

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.07 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 10% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at William and Mary by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 10 labelled days at William and Mary, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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