U. S. Military Academy '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.68 (fleet 0.94) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 0–11 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 0–11 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (11 matches) the record is 0–11 against 0.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-11-08 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 0.69 | -2.31 | 0–11 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Greater NY Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 9.3 | -0.15 |
| Army Spring Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 2.5 | 0.97 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Shields Trophy Regatta Keelboat | Crew | A | 6 | 4.7 | — |
| McMillan Cup at Navy Keelboat | Crew | A | 3 | 7.0 | — |
| Kennedy Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 6 | 6.8 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| The Leroy Grant | Skipper | B | 9 | 12.0 | 0.03 |
| Greater New York Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.7 | 1.38 |
| Army Spring Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.0 | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Shields Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 7 | 7.6 | — |
| North Fall Qualifier | Skipper | B | 11 | 8.1 | 1.59 |
| McMillan Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 6 | 6.0 | — |
| MAISA Club Championship | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.6 | 1.19 |
| Henry Luce Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 10.9 | 0.97 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| ODU Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 14.8 | 0.09 |
| North Spring Qualifier | Skipper | A | 5 | 11.4 | 0.63 |
| Greater New York Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.0 | 0.18 |
| Army Spring Open | Skipper | B | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| NY Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.2 | 1.06 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 0% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
