The Leroy Grant

HostMonmouth
Date04/16/2016
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Hampton University	Pirates	39	33	72
2	Christopher Newport University	Captains	46	50	96
3	Washington College	Shoremen	43	63	106
4	Stevens Institute of Technology	Ducks	75	55	130
5	University of Maryland	Terps	57	75	132
6	Syracuse University	Orange	73	60	133
7	SUNY Stony Brook	Snailors	71	65	136
8	Villanova University	Wildcats	65	86	151
9	Columbia University	Lions	90	81	171
10	Virginia Tech	Hokies	93	95	188
11	William and Mary	Tribe	126	81	207
12	University of Buffalo	Bulls	122	93	215
13	U. S. Military Academy	Black Knights	102	126	228
14	Queen's University	Gaels	109	126	235
15	Drexel University	Dragons	140	128	268
16	Penn State University	Nittany Lions	112	161	273
17	Monmouth University	Hawks	168	153	321

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Hampton University	Pirates	1	1	3	2	3	7	3	2	15	2	39	Maximilian Kuester '18 Giuditta Di Laghi '16
Washington College	Shoremen	6	3	2	1	2	3	10	3	3	10	43	Eric Siegel '16 Lindsey Arnstein '18
Christopher Newport University	Captains	10	6	11	8	1	2	1	1	5	1	46	Austin Powers '17 [1-10] Matteo Murrelle '19 [1-2] Laura Kilgore '17 [3-10]
University of Maryland	Terps	2	5	1	5	16	9	2	7	1	9	57	Joshua Prucnal '16 [1-10] Dana Harriman '18 [1-6] Zachary Thomas '18 [7-10]
Villanova University	Wildcats	4	8	9	11	4	6	4	5	7	7	65	Trevor Koerwer '19 Elisabeth Day '18
SUNY Stony Brook	Snailors	7	2	6	3	8	11	11	10	10	3	71	Vidar Minkovsky '18 Micayla Beyer '19
Syracuse University	Orange	5	4	8	9	5	12	14	8	2	6	73	Nicholas Pardini '16 Kelly Brust '16
Stevens Institute of Technology	Ducks	8	7	4	6	6	4	13	11	8	8	75	Julian Fraize '18 [1-8] Matthew Roleke '19 [9-10] Thomas Slook '18 [1-4] Meredith Foor '18 [5-10]
Columbia University	Lions	3	13	5	DSQ	7	5	7	6	9	17	90	Paolo Bertolotti '16 Elizabeth Keeney '19
Virginia Tech	Hokies	11	14	10	10	13	14	8	4	4	5	93	Nicholas Price '17 Katherine Roberts '18
U. S. Military Academy	Black Knights	13	16	14	7	9	8	16	9	6	4	102	No Show Jennifer Suter '19
Queen's University	Gaels	14	9	16	13	12	1	6	12	13	13	109	Jonah Burke-Kleinman '16 Sean Magee-Saxton '16
Penn State University	Nittany Lions	9	12	7	12	10	10	9	13	16	14	112	John Shanahan '16 Kristen Einthoven '18
University of Buffalo	Bulls	12	10	15	14	11	13	5	16	11	15	122	Dante Iozzo '16 Emily Hann '17
William and Mary	Tribe	16	11	12	4	15	16	12	15	14	11	126	Chris Anderson '16 Hannah O'Neil '18
Drexel University	Dragons	15	15	13	15	14	15	15	14	12	12	140	Haley Clemson '20 Elizabeth Jarvie '18
Monmouth University	Hawks	17	17	17	16	17	17	17	17	17	16	168	Amanda Nuse '17 [1-6] Giuseppe Licata '17 [7-10] Ryan Hallak '18 [1-2] Katherine Foley '19 [3-10]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Hampton University	Pirates	9	1	1	3	7	1	2	4	2	3	33	Luca Taglialegne '20 Elisabeth Kuester '19
Christopher Newport University	Captains	12	4	6	1	1	11	1	1	3	10	50	Amanda Attardi '17 [1-2, 5-10] Anders Hudson '17 [3-4] Kaitlyn Reilly '18 [1-2, 5-10]
Stevens Institute of Technology	Ducks	2	6	3	8	8	3	9	6	6	4	55	Andrew O'Brien '19 Jesse Stevenson '19
Syracuse University	Orange	4	3	8	5	2	10	6	2	5	15	60	Barrie Joanna '19 Maeve Wurtz '19
Washington College	Shoremen	5	11	7	6	6	4	10	3	9	2	63	Alexander Smith '17 [1-6] Hannah Schmidt '17 [7-10] Allison Cochran '18 [1-6]
SUNY Stony Brook	Snailors	11	8	9	11	4	2	3	5	11	1	65	Brendan Brown-Mccue '16 No Show
University of Maryland	Terps	6	2	5	2	13	9	14	10	7	7	75	Matt Greenfield '17 [1-6] Andrew Bobbitt '18 [7-10] No Show [1-6]
William and Mary	Tribe	1	17	2	4	3	14	7	9	10	14	81	Patrick Mazzeo '18 Daniel Powers '18
Columbia University	Lions	3	5	12	10	11	7	5	11	8	9	81	Adam Devita '18 Luke Pelessone '18
Villanova University	Wildcats	14	15	10	7	5	6	4	7	12	6	86	Harrison Paige '19 Julianna Lee '17
University of Buffalo	Bulls	15	7	15	9	10	8	8	12	4	5	93	Rory Mess '16 Jessica Abriss '18
Virginia Tech	Hokies	10	10	4	13	15	13	13	8	1	8	95	Nathan Gibson '19 Ashley Black '17
U. S. Military Academy	Black Knights	8	13	13	12	9	12	OCS	15	15	11	126	Michael Danko '17 Jack Bui '19
Queen's University	Gaels	13	9	16	14	14	5	11	14	14	16	126	Victoria Restivo '17 Denby Mcdonnell '17
Drexel University	Dragons	7	12	14	15	12	15	15	13	13	12	128	Abigail Proko '20 [1-4] Barrett Adams '17 [5-6] No Show [7-10] Theodore Schon '19 [1-6] Barrett Adams '17 [7-10]
Monmouth University	Hawks	16	14	11	17	16	17	12	16	17	17	153	Veronica Lane '19 [1-10] Thomas Cahill '18 [1-2] Charlotte Molali '19 [3-4] Rachel Schwerd '19 [5-6] Kaitlyn Brennan '17 [7-10]
Penn State University	Nittany Lions	17	16	17	16	17	16	16	17	16	13	161	Justin Dillman '18 Jessie Miller '17

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.070+0.07

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A
U. S. Military Academy Black Knights	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	2	2
University of Buffalo Bulls	12	12	14	14	16	16	1	1	3	3
Christopher Newport University Captains	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
Columbia University Lions	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Drexel University Dragons	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Hampton University Pirates	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
University of Maryland Terps	13	13	15	15	17	17	2	2	4	4
Monmouth University Hawks	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
Penn State University Nittany Lions	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
Queen's University Gaels	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15
Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17
SUNY Stony Brook Snailors	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16
Syracuse University Orange	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	1	1
Villanova University Wildcats	14	14	16	16	1	1	3	3	5	5
Virginia Tech Hokies	15	15	17	17	2	2	4	4	6	6
Washington College Shoremen	16	16	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
William and Mary Tribe	17	17	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B
U. S. Military Academy Black Knights	12	12	14	14	16	16	1	1	3	3
University of Buffalo Bulls	13	13	15	15	17	17	2	2	4	4
Christopher Newport University Captains	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Columbia University Lions	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Drexel University Dragons	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Hampton University Pirates	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
University of Maryland Terps	14	14	16	16	1	1	3	3	5	5
Monmouth University Hawks	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
Penn State University Nittany Lions	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15
Queen's University Gaels	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16
Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	1	1
SUNY Stony Brook Snailors	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17
Syracuse University Orange	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	2	2
Villanova University Wildcats	15	15	17	17	2	2	4	4	6	6
Virginia Tech Hokies	16	16	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Washington College Shoremen	17	17	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
William and Mary Tribe	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Christopher Newport University	Austin Powers '17 [1-10]	Matteo Murrelle '19 [1-2] Laura Kilgore '17 [3-10]
Captains	Amanda Attardi '17 [1-2, 5-10] Anders Hudson '17 [3-4]	Kaitlyn Reilly '18 [1-2, 5-10]
Columbia University	Paolo Bertolotti '16	Elizabeth Keeney '19
Lions	Adam Devita '18	Luke Pelessone '18
Drexel University	Haley Clemson '20	Elizabeth Jarvie '18
Dragons	Abigail Proko '20 [1-4] Barrett Adams '17 [5-6] No Show [7-10]	Theodore Schon '19 [1-6] Barrett Adams '17 [7-10]
Hampton University	Maximilian Kuester '18	Giuditta Di Laghi '16
Pirates	Luca Taglialegne '20	Elisabeth Kuester '19
Monmouth University	Amanda Nuse '17 [1-6] Giuseppe Licata '17 [7-10]	Ryan Hallak '18 [1-2] Katherine Foley '19 [3-10]
Hawks	Veronica Lane '19 [1-10]	Thomas Cahill '18 [1-2] Charlotte Molali '19 [3-4] Rachel Schwerd '19 [5-6] Kaitlyn Brennan '17 [7-10]
Penn State University	John Shanahan '16	Kristen Einthoven '18
Nittany Lions	Justin Dillman '18	Jessie Miller '17
Queen's University	Jonah Burke-Kleinman '16	Sean Magee-Saxton '16
Gaels	Victoria Restivo '17	Denby Mcdonnell '17
SUNY Stony Brook	Vidar Minkovsky '18	Micayla Beyer '19
Snailors	Brendan Brown-Mccue '16	No Show
Stevens Institute of Technology	Julian Fraize '18 [1-8] Matthew Roleke '19 [9-10]	Thomas Slook '18 [1-4] Meredith Foor '18 [5-10]
Ducks	Andrew O'Brien '19	Jesse Stevenson '19
Syracuse University	Nicholas Pardini '16	Kelly Brust '16
Orange	Barrie Joanna '19	Maeve Wurtz '19
U. S. Military Academy	No Show	Jennifer Suter '19
Black Knights	Michael Danko '17	Jack Bui '19
University of Buffalo	Dante Iozzo '16	Emily Hann '17
Bulls	Rory Mess '16	Jessica Abriss '18
University of Maryland	Joshua Prucnal '16 [1-10]	Dana Harriman '18 [1-6] Zachary Thomas '18 [7-10]
Terps	Matt Greenfield '17 [1-6] Andrew Bobbitt '18 [7-10]	No Show [1-6]
Villanova University	Trevor Koerwer '19	Elisabeth Day '18
Wildcats	Harrison Paige '19	Julianna Lee '17
Virginia Tech	Nicholas Price '17	Katherine Roberts '18
Hokies	Nathan Gibson '19	Ashley Black '17
Washington College	Eric Siegel '16	Lindsey Arnstein '18
Shoremen	Alexander Smith '17 [1-6] Hannah Schmidt '17 [7-10]	Allison Cochran '18 [1-6]
William and Mary	Chris Anderson '16	Hannah O'Neil '18
Tribe	Patrick Mazzeo '18	Daniel Powers '18

Conditions — 04/16/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy

Humidity 44% · Pressure 1030.7 hPa

Temperature

53°F

↑ 59°F ↓ 44°F

Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.3 kn

avg · max 8.0 kn

Gusts to 19.8 kn

From NE (44°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover49% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity44% Pressure1030.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 9 kn* · NE 4 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Monmouth: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment −0.02 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.03

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.10 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Monmouth by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 12 labelled days at Monmouth, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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