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Army Spring Open

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 8 6 14
2 Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 14 16 30
3 Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 19 17 36
4 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 27 28 55
5 University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 29 28 57
6 Columbia University Columbia University Lions 33 33 66
7 University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Bulls 38 40 78
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 1 1 3 1 1 1 8 No Show
Jennifer Suter '19
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 2 2 1 4 2 3 14 Barrett Adams '17 [1-4]
John Ellis '19 [5-6]
John Ellis '19 [1-4]
Barrett Adams '17 [5-6]
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 3 3 2 3 3 5 19 Mitchell Nunn '18
Alina Robinson '17
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 5 4 5 5 6 2 27 Jessica Kurlander '18 [1-4]
Samantha Zito '18 [5-6]
Samantha Zito '18 [1-4]
Jessica Kurlander '18 [5-6]
University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 7 6 4 2 4 6 29 Hannah Babbitz '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Sean Crandall '19 [3-4]
Sean Crandall '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Hannah Babbitz '19 [3-4]
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 4 5 6 7 7 4 33 Luke Pelessone '18
Elizabeth Siegal '16
University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Bulls 6 7 7 6 5 7 38 No Show
Rachel Suitor '18
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 Michael Danko '17
Ruby Garcia '18
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 3 2 2 4 3 2 16 No Show
Elizabeth Jarvie '18
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 2 4 4 2 2 3 17 Nina Van De Vaarst '19
Angelina Graham '19
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 5 3 3 5 5 7 28 Samantha Mislinski '19 [1-6]
Brianna Cahill '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Hairuo Sun '19 [3-4]
University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 6 6 5 3 4 4 28 Martha Diezemann '18 [1-2]
Cathleen Murphy '19 [3-6]
Cathleen Murphy '19 [1-2]
Hali Gruber '17 [3-4]
Martha Diezemann '18 [5-6]
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 4 5 6 6 6 6 33 Catalina Feder '19
Louisa Sainz De La Maza '18
University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Bulls 7 7 7 7 7 5 40 Patrick Lageraaen '19
Peter Judson '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Black Knights151517171212
University of BuffaloUniversity of Buffalo Bulls161611111313
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions111113131515
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware Blue Hens171712121414
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons121214141616
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings131315151717
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves141416161111

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Black Knights161611111313
University of BuffaloUniversity of Buffalo Bulls171712121414
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions121214141616
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware Blue Hens111113131515
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons131315151717
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings141416161111
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves151517171212

Conditions — 04/30/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 58%  ·  Pressure 1022.5 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 46°F
Feels like 54°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.5 kn
avg  ·  max 4.4 kn
Gusts to 11.5 kn
From SSE (154°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover81% Sunshine8.9 hrs Humidity58% Pressure1022.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 6 kn · SE 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Army: a favourites’ day (+0.08)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.24
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.99 ± 0.30)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Army by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Army, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →