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Army Spring Open

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 4 2 6
2 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 3 7 10
3 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Snailers 6 6 12
4 Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 13 5 18
5 Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 9 13 22
6 University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Bulls 13 12 25
7 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 9 17 26
8 Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers 15 11 26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Black Knights1717
University of BuffaloUniversity of Buffalo Bulls1818
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons1111
Rochester Institute of TechnologyRochester Institute of Technology Tigers1212
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Ducks1515
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves1313
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Snailers1414
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange1616

Division B

Team1B2B
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Black Knights1313
University of BuffaloUniversity of Buffalo Bulls1414
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons1515
Rochester Institute of TechnologyRochester Institute of Technology Tigers1616
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Ducks1111
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves1717
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Snailers1818
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange1212

Conditions — 05/02/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 55%  ·  Pressure 1014.2 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.9 kn
avg  ·  max 4.6 kn
Gusts to 14.6 kn
From NNE (20°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover26% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1014.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 7 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Army: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.16
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.91 ± 0.41)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Army by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Army, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →