Kennedy Cup

HostNavy
Date11/05/2016
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatNavy 44
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	University of South Florida	Bulls	16	16
2	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	20	20
3	College of Charleston	Cougars	21	21
4	California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	26	26
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	33	33
6	University of Michigan	Wolverines	37	37
7	U. S. Military Academy	Black Knights	41	41
8	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	46	46
9	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	50	50
10	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers	50	50

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT
University of South Florida	Bulls	1	4	3	2	3	3	16
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	4	2	2	5	1	DSQ	20
College of Charleston	Cougars	8	5	4	1	2	1	21
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	2	1	1	9	DSQ	2	26
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	7	3	5	8	4	6	33
University of Michigan	Wolverines	3	7	6	6	DSQ	5	37
U. S. Military Academy	Black Knights	6	6	10	3	7	9	41
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	9	9	9	4	8	7	46
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	5	8	8	10	DSQ	8	50
Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers	10	DSQ	7	7	5	10	50

School	Team	Sailors
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	SkipperCorey Lynch '17 CrewNolan Van Dine '20 CrewFlora Van Der Schoot '20 CrewHarry Schmidt '20 CrewBritton Hammock '20 CrewBenjamin Rohr '19 CrewKelsey Tostenson '20 CrewJonathan Weil '20
College of Charleston	Cougars	ReserveNoah Blacker '17 ReserveCorinne Durocher '18 ReserveSean Hannigan '17 ReserveWilliam Hundahl '19 ReserveJulia Lines '18 ReserveHoward Meyers '17 ReserveTristan Nord '18 ReserveSam Tobio '20 ReserveJordan Wiggins '20
Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers	SkipperEmily Casella '17 [6] CrewFrank Reeg '19 [1] CrewMcKenna Jarvis '19 [3] CrewMatthew Schaefer '19 [3] CrewChristopher Mannka '17 [4] CrewJudson Yerkes '17 [6] CrewGeorge Luber '17 [6] ReserveEvan Bowen '19 ReserveRyan Novak-Smith '17
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	SkipperRiley Kernan '18 CrewPeter Mosconi '19 CrewJohn Ryder '18 CrewCaitlin Cummings '18 CrewAlexander Haim '17 CrewDavid Yonks '17 CrewGregory Ferguson '19 CrewChristian Perez '17
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	SkipperRiely Brande '18 CrewPeter Reeve '17 CrewJames Gigantelli '18 CrewWilliam Colomb '18 CrewZachary Groce '19 CrewAndrew Goetz '18 CrewJonathan Cardinal '19 CrewErin Wright '18 ReserveJean-Michel Depew '19
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	SkipperConnor Sexton '17 CrewBenjamin Manning '17 CrewMax Neubelt '17 CrewScott Johnston '18 CrewJacob Andrew '17 CrewEthan Neubelt '18 CrewJames Noel '18
U. S. Military Academy	Black Knights	SkipperAlbert Biddle '17 CrewMichael Danko '17 CrewEvan Crowell '20 CrewAlex Ramos '19 CrewNina Tucker '18 CrewJennifer Suter '19 CrewRuby Garcia '18 CrewBogue Waller '19 ReserveMatthew Lugo '20
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	SkipperMichael Sagan '17 CrewGeorge Davis '19 CrewK. Parriott '18 CrewJames Reynolds '17 CrewSean Rundle '17 CrewCarl Trampenau '17 CrewBenjamin Olson '17 CrewNathan Pearson '17
University of Michigan	Wolverines	SkipperLane Tobin '18 CrewVincent Wyborski '17 CrewColton Gerber '18 CrewMason Wolters '18 CrewMatthew Greydanus '19 CrewJo Hummel '19 CrewGrant Glover '19 CrewCharles Rogers '19 ReserveTyler Davidson '17
University of South Florida	Bulls	SkipperMichael Trebilcock '17 CrewAndrew Baird '18 CrewCameron Smith '19 CrewBrendan Feeney '18 CrewOrrin Starr '19 CrewSean Cornell '18 CrewMichael Sanandajian '18 ReserveScott Ewing '18

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 207 ICSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 10 boats · 6 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Michael Trebilcock '17	University of South Florida	6/6	1.94	2.64	+0.69	99th → 99th	1.2	15%	2.7 / 4.3
3	Michael Sagan '17	U. S. Naval Academy	6/6	1.67^u	2.73	+1.06	94th → 99th	2.2	38%	4.2 / 4.8
4	Corey Lynch '17	California Maritime Academy	6/6	2.12	2.14	+0.03	99th → 99th	0.0	65%	4.3 / 4.0
5	Riely Brande '18	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	6/6	1.58^u	1.47	−0.11	91st → 89th	0.0	66%	5.5 / 5.0
6	Lane Tobin '18	University of Michigan	6/6	1.11	1.55	+0.44	77th → 91st	0.5	67%	6.3 / 5.7
7	Albert Biddle '17	U. S. Military Academy	6/6	-0.51	0.78	+1.29	3rd → 63rd	3.6	14%	6.8 / 8.2
8	Connor Sexton '17	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	6/6	1.44^u	-0.22	−1.66	88th → 8th	8.2	94%	7.7 / 5.2
9	Emily Casella '17	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	6/6	1.04	-0.03	−1.07	75th → 15th	2.5	96%	8.3 / 5.8
9	Riley Kernan '18	SUNY Maritime College	6/6	0.53^u	0.58	+0.05	50th → 54th	0.0	86%	8.3 / 6.8

Conditions — 11/05/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 57% · Pressure 1025.4 hPa

Temperature

56°F

↑ 63°F ↓ 45°F

Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.7 kn

avg · max 6.2 kn

Gusts to 13.0 kn

From W (273°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1025.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu