University of South Florida '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.06 (fleet 2.83) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 11–25 (31%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 9–20 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 2–5 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (36 matches) the record is 11–25 against 8.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.8). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-06 | SAISA Team Race Conference Championships | skipper | 2.42 | 3.27 | 4–6 | 2.6 | +0.85 | 0.9 | 22% |
| 2019-03-02 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 2.15 | 2.82 | 5–14 | 3.1 | +0.67 | 1.0 | 18% |
| 2018-05-26 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.00 | 1.49 | 2–5 | 2.5 | −0.51 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Team Race Conference Championships | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | A | 2 | 13.5 | 2.54 |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 19 | 26% | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 15 | 27% | — |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | B | 11 | 3.6 | 2.83 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Match Race Championships Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 2.0 | — |
| Kennedy Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 5 | 2.8 | — |
| ICSA Match Race Nationals Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 3.0 | — |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 3 | 16.0 | 2.44 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | A | 3 | 2.7 | 3.96 |
| Kennedy Cup Keelboat | Reserve | A | 6 | 2.7 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #5 | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.8 | 1.41 |
| SAISA Coed Conference Championships | Skipper | B | 2 | 4.0 | 3.18 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 14 | 13.5 | 2.34 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #5 | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.2 | 2.49 |
| SAISA Open | Skipper | B | 3 | 6.3 | 1.76 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Crew | B | 9 | 5.7 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
