Dartmouth College '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.74 (fleet 3.79) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 18–14 (56%) as crew 0–9 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 18–14 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | — | 0–9 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (41 matches) the record is 18–23 against 17.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-04 | Barque Eagle Team Race | skipper | 3.08 | 2.79 | 8–6 | 8.9 | −0.29 | 0.2 | 79% |
| 2015-03-28 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.70 | 3.63 | 10–8 | 6.6 | +0.93 | 2.3 | 6% |
| 2014-03-22 | 2014 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | crew | 2.98 | -0.02 | 0–9 | 2.4 | ≤−3.00 | 4.0 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Mosbacher, Owen, Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 14 | 4.9 | 3.76 |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.5 | 3.51 |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.5 | 4.22 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.5 | 3.96 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.0 | 4.56 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.4 | 3.81 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.4 | 4.13 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.4 | 4.18 |
| 74th Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 12.6 | 2.66 |
| 33rd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.7 | 3.91 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 11.9 | 2.32 |
| Barque Eagle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 56% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.0 | 2.73 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 10.0 | 1.83 |
| Jesuit Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.3 | 3.10 |
| David Lee Arnoff/ HWS Fall Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.7 | 3.30 |
| Central Series 6 | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.3 | 3.94 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Veitor Trophy @ SRU | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.6 | 3.41 |
| Greater New York Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.8 | 3.71 |
| 70th Greater Boston Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 5.6 | 2.80 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.0 | 2.36 |
| 2014 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Crew | TR | 21 | 33% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| 71st Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 9 | 4.8 | — |
| Lake Champlain Open | Crew | B | 1 | 4.0 | — |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | B | 16 | 4.3 | 3.29 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.3 | 2.63 |
| Chris Loder | Skipper | B | 3 | 2.7 | 3.86 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Central Series | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.1 | 0.35 |
| Brian Doyle Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.0 | — |
| Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 17 | 10.5 | 2.75 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Roger Williams Invitational | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.0 | 2.72 |
| Central Series | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.4 | 1.57 |
| Boston Harbor Invitational | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.2 | 2.72 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
