| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Boston College | Eagles | 13–2 |
| 2 |  |
Harvard University | Crimson | 10–5 |
| 3 |  |
Bowdoin College | Polar Bears | 6–9 |
| 4 |  |
Brown University | Bears | 6–9 |
| 5 |  |
Dartmouth College | Big Green | 2–13 |
| 6 |  |
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears | 2–13 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 10,346 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-24, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 37 of 45 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.440 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.50 ± 0.31: an orderly event, more orderly than 93% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boston College | 8.87 | 9.52 | 13–2 | 11.7 | +0.65 | 0.6 | 32% |
| 2 | Harvard University | 8.65 | 9.07 | 12–3 | 11.0 | +0.42 | 0.3 | 40% |
| 3 | Bowdoin College | 7.66 | 7.86 | 8–7 | 7.4 | +0.20 | 0.1 | 47% |
| 4 | Brown University | 7.43 | 7.27 | 6–9 | 6.5 | −0.16 | 0.1 | 71% |
| 5 | Dartmouth College | 6.97 | 6.63 | 4–11 | 4.9 | −0.34 | 0.2 | 80% |
| 6 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 6.60 | 5.89 | 2–13 | 3.5 | −0.71 | 0.7 | 90% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Lyon | Boston College | 2.63 | 3.28 | 13–2 | 11.7 | +0.65 | 0.6 | 32% |
| Alexander Vasiliou | Bowdoin College | 2.57 | 2.77 | 8–7 | 7.4 | +0.20 | 0.1 | 47% |
| Alden Grimes | Bowdoin College | 2.52 | 2.72 | 8–7 | 7.4 | +0.20 | 0.1 | 47% |
| Michael Kann | Bowdoin College | 2.19 | 2.39 | 8–7 | 7.4 | +0.20 | 0.1 | 47% |
| Nathan Housberg | Brown University | 2.25 | 2.09 | 6–9 | 6.5 | −0.16 | 0.1 | 71% |
| Franco Bilik | Brown University | 2.73 | 2.57 | 6–9 | 6.5 | −0.16 | 0.1 | 71% |
| Max Clapp | Dartmouth College | 2.60 | 2.26 | 4–11 | 4.9 | −0.34 | 0.2 | 80% |
| Gage Schoenherr | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 2.25 | 1.23 | 1–11 | 2.3 | −1.02 | 0.9 | 93% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Eagles | Crimson | Bears | Bears | Green | Bears | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Harvard University Crimson | 3–2 | L | ✕ | W | L | W | W |
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 2–3 | L | W | L | ✕ | L | W |
| Dartmouth College Big Green | 2–3 | L | L | L | W | ✕ | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Eagles | Crimson | Bears | Bears | Green | Bears | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | 3–2 | ✕ | L | L | W | W | W |
| Harvard University Crimson | 5–0 | W | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears | 3–2 | W | L | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 3–2 | L | L | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Dartmouth College Big Green | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Eagles | Crimson | Bears | Bears | Green | Bears | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Harvard University Crimson | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears | 2–3 | L | L | ✕ | W | L | W |
| Brown University Bears | 1–4 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | L |
| Dartmouth College Big Green | 1–4 | L | L | W | L | ✕ | L |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 2–3 | L | L | L | W | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Polar Bears | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Big Green | 2-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Crimson | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Polar Bears | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Crimson | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Crimson | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Big Green | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Crimson | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Polar Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Big Green | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Bears | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Crimson | 2-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Big Green | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Crimson | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Polar Bears | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Crimson | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Crimson | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Polar Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Big Green | 1-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Crimson | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 1-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Big Green | 1-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Crimson | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Big Green | 2-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 2-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-4-5 |
| 32 | |
Crimson | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 2-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Bears | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 1-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Big Green | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Crimson | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Crimson | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 39 | |
Big Green | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Eagles | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Crimson | 1-4-6 |
| 41 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Big Green | 1-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 43 | |
Crimson | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Big Green | 4-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 45 | |
Polar Bears | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 1-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Boston College | Eagles | Colin Brego '20 Drake Lyon '18 Scott Rasmussen '20 |
Elizabeth Matheson '20 Eliza Wright '20 Megan Bamford '18 |
|
Harvard University | Crimson | Dylan Farrell '18 Henry Burnes '22 Nicholas Karnovsky '19 |
Lena Episalla '19 Emma Jakobson '21 Jessica Williams '20 |
|
Bowdoin College | Polar Bears | Alden Grimes '21 Alexander Vasiliou '18 Michael Kann '19 |
Nora Cullen '18 Jake Griffin '18 Julia Adams '21 |
|
Brown University | Bears | Franco Bilik '18 John Mastrandrea '20 Nathan Housberg '19 |
Megha Malpani '19 Elizabeth Rolfes '21 Sawyer Balint '20 |
|
Dartmouth College | Big Green | Max Clapp '21 Michael Tellini '21 Noah Simmons '20 |
Sarah Chong '21 Alyssa Berger '19 |
|
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears | Caelan Juckniess '20 Darden Purrington '20 Gage Schoenherr '21 Jesse Mcknight '21 |
Anna Maria Vaccaro '19 Philip Whittlesey '20 Erin Morgan '18 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 10% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
