U. S. Coast Guard Academy '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.63 (fleet 2.25) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–13 (13%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 2–13 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 2–13 against 3.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-24 | BC Team Race | skipper | 2.14 | 1.43 | 2–13 | 3.5 | −0.71 | 0.7 | 90% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.0 | 2.02 |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 12.3 | 1.54 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.1 | 2.19 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.1 | 2.32 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.6 | 2.30 |
| Jen Harris Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.0 | 2.06 |
| The Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy | Skipper | C | 3 | 14.7 | 1.26 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Wick/Shrew Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 12.6 | 2.18 |
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.0 | 4.47 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 17 | 11.4 | 2.58 |
| BC Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 13% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.0 | 1.63 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Backup Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 13.2 | 1.84 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.9 | 3.30 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.0 | 1.66 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Darden Purrington |  Norfolk Collegiate School |
'16 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
