Boston College '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.45 (fleet 3.39) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 37–22 (63%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 14–10 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | 5–0 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 10–8 | — |
| Fall 2016 | 1 | 8–4 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (58 matches) the record is 36–22 against 36.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-24 | BC Team Race | skipper | 2.63 | 3.28 | 13–2 | 11.7 | +0.65 | 0.6 | 32% |
| 2018-03-10 | Rudkin Team Race | skipper | 2.75 | -0.25 | 0–8 | 3.0 | ≤−3.00 | 5.2 | >99% |
| 2017-10-14 | Norman Reid Team Race | skipper | 2.95 | 5.95 | 5–0 | 4.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.5 | 32% |
| 2017-03-25 | NEISA/MAISA Team Race | skipper | 2.81 | 2.68 | 10–8 | 10.5 | −0.12 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 2016-11-05 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.56 | 2.96 | 8–4 | 6.9 | +0.40 | 0.3 | 36% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Rudkin Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 7% | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.9 | 4.14 |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 8 | 62% | — |
| BC Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 87% | — |
| The 82nd Annual Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 10 | 6.0 | 3.61 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 12.3 | 3.29 |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 100% | — |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 3.6 | 3.90 |
| Central Series | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.5 | 2.24 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.0 | 2.92 |
| NEISA/MAISA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 56% | — |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.7 | 3.81 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Penobscot Bay Open | Skipper | B | 5 | 5.2 | 2.57 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 72% | — |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.4 | 3.28 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.8 | 3.53 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.5 | 2.42 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | C | 11 | 7.5 | 3.22 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Penobscot Bay Open | Skipper | B | 7 | 9.3 | 1.58 |
| NEISA Men's Singlehanded Champs Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 18.5 | — |
| Central Series6 | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.4 | 2.48 |
| 4th Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | B | 11 | 4.0 | 3.92 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Central Series, Savin Hill | Skipper | B | 7 | 5.7 | 2.50 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| RI States, 3rd Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | B | 16 | 9.5 | 2.07 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.8 | 3.52 |
| Harvard Invitational 2 | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.3 | 2.56 |
| Central Series 6 | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.2 | 2.85 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
