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Southern Series 5

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 66
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 91
3 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 116
4 Brown University Brown University Bears 137
5 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 155
6 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 156
7 Sacred Heart University Sacred Heart University Pioneers 224
8 Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 306
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears A 2 8 2 6 1 1 1 2 4 27 August Sturm '19
Rebecca Edmonds '19
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks B 3 2 4 1 10 2 4 1 1 28 Daniel Petrovic '19
Connor Corgard '16
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos B 8 1 1 2 3 8 2 4 2 31 Samuel Shea '19
Marie-Louise Schnetz '19
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks A 1 4 6 3 5 4 5 5 5 38 Preston Duclos '19
Virginia Yeatts '19
Brown University Brown University Bears B 6 9 7 4 7 5 3 6 3 50 Nathan Housberg '19
Megha Malpani '19
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos A 11 7 5 5 2 3 10 8 9 60 Alexander Tong '17
Taylor Nathanson '18
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams B 4 5 9 7 4 6 6 12 8 61 Karel Mailloux-Kuz '18 [1-6]
Ryan Walker '19 [7-9]
Mariah Mcdonald '19 [1-6]
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels A 5 6 10 8 8 9 7 3 7 63 Phillip Rosenthall '18
Olivia Liebnick '16
Brown University Brown University Bears A 12 12 3 12 11 12 8 11 6 87 Meredith Morran '19
Davis Tantillo '19
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears B 10 3 8 13 13 11 14 7 10 89 Daniel Winter '16
Anna Maria Vaccaro '19
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels B 9 14 12 11 6 7 12 10 11 92 Albert Rodiger '18
Taryn Silver '19
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams A 7 10 14 9 9 13 11 9 13 95 Garrett Connelly '19 [1-5]
William Connelly '18 [6-9]
Samantha Hamilton '19 [1-5]
Sacred Heart University Sacred Heart University Pioneers A 14 11 11 10 12 14 9 13 14 108 Brian Reilly '16
Andrew Dill '17
Sacred Heart University Sacred Heart University Pioneers B 13 13 13 14 14 10 13 14 12 116 Rebecca Rutkiewicz '19
Kristen Lahaise '17
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals A DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 153 Abe Kipnis '18
Mika Braun '19
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals B DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 153 Kevin Winnie '16
Jenny Chelmow '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (54 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears111111111
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears777777777
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels222222222
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams888888888
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks444444444
Sacred Heart UniversitySacred Heart University Pioneers555555555
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos666666666
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals999999999

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears101010101010101010
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears161616161616161616
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels111111111111111111
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams171717171717171717
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks131313131313131313
Sacred Heart UniversitySacred Heart University Pioneers141414141414141414
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos151515151515151515
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals181818181818181818

Conditions — 04/16/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 51%  ·  Pressure 1030.5 hPa

Temperature

48°F
↑ 52°F   ↓ 42°F
Feels like 39°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
13.3 kn
avg  ·  max 14.4 kn
Gusts to 29.2 kn
From NNE (29°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover25% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1030.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 15 kn* · NE 12 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Rhode Island: a favourites’ day (+0.08)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.09
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.22 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Rhode Island by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (47 labelled days at Rhode Island).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →