Rudkin Team Race

HostRoger Williams
Date03/09/2019
TypeNOT ALLOWED Promotional
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	11–3
2	Roger Williams University	Hawks	9–5
3	Connecticut College	Camels	9–5
4	Boston College	Eagles	9–5
4	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	9–5
6	Eckerd College	Tritons	7–7
7	Yale University	Bulldogs	2–12
8	Salve Regina University	Seahawks	0–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 12,301 team race matches sailed before 2019-03-09, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 43 of 56 matches (77%) with a log-loss of 0.436 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.01 ± 0.26: a typical event, more orderly than 43% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	2	10.58 school +0.38	Alden Grimes / Marie Bergsund 3.32 6–2 Matt Safford / Julia Adams 3.05 6–2 Matthew Kaplan / Marie Bergsund 3.94 5–1 Christian Filter / Emily Gonzalez 3.35 5–1 Matt Safford / Louisa Lindgren 3.10 4–0 Matthew Kaplan / Louisa Lindgren 3.91 4–0 Christian Filter / Louisa Lindgren 3.33 2–2 Alden Grimes / Julia Adams 3.24 1–1	78%	11–3 (79%)	+0.0
2	Roger Williams University Hawks	1	10.90 school +0.23, home +0.39	Conner Harding / Jennifer Agell 3.91 Daniel Petrovic / Emily Gildea 3.13 Spencer Cartwright / Hallie Repeta 3.22	85%	9–5 (64%)	−2.8
3	Connecticut College Camels	5	8.82 school +0.14	Carter Pemberton / Cecilia Moreira 3.58 7–5 Cj Mckenna / Katherine (Katie) Rodger 2.87 8–4 Thomas Whittemore / Paige Dunlevy 2.63 5–5 Gordon Gurnell / Marion Lemay 2.08 5–1 Walter Henry / Thomas Whittemore 2–0	48%	9–5 (64%)	+2.3
4	Boston College Eagles	4	9.35 school +0.19	Peter Lynn / Lauren Seigel 3.26 Colin Brego / Eliza Wright 2.92 Thomas Walden / Caroline Downey 2.94	57%	9–5 (64%)	+1.1
4	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	3	9.44 school −0.07	Trevor Long / Kaila Pfrang 3.64 Stephen Duncan / Julia Cho 2.81 8–4 Ivan Shestopalov / Sameena Shaffeeullah 3.18 8–2 John Ped / Sameena Shaffeeullah 1–3 Ivan Shestopalov / Julia Cho 3.12 1–1	58%	9–5 (64%)	+0.8
6	Eckerd College Tritons	6	8.37 school +0.10	Karl Rasmus Sayre / Camryn Kennedy 3.24 5–7 Ian Willoughby / Kim Kusminsky 2.76 6–6 Daniel Vail / Caroline Puckette 2.42 5–5 Cameron Douglas / Camryn Kennedy 2.08 2–0 Daniel Vail / Kim Kusminsky 2.52 1–1 Ian Willoughby / Cameron Douglas 2.63 1–1 Daniel Vail / Carla Szeplaki 2.38 1–1	39%	7–7 (50%)	+1.5
7	Yale University Bulldogs	7	8.07 school +0.29	Dylan Dimarchi / Anisha Arcot 2.93 Nicholas Marwell / Helena Ware 2.72 Sam Tobin / Mina Cezairli 1.99	31%	2–12 (14%)	−2.4
8	Salve Regina University Seahawks	8	5.01 school −0.71	Alex Bowdler / Peter Cronin Grace Vincens / Jennifer Ryan 2.26 Anthony Root / Caroline King 1.81	4%	0–14 (0%)	−0.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	Connecticut College	8.82	9.74	9–5	6.7	+0.92	1.5	12%
6	Eckerd College	8.37	8.97	7–7	5.5	+0.59	0.6	25%
4	Boston College	9.35	9.81	9–5	7.9	+0.47	0.4	35%
4	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	9.44	9.78	9–5	8.2	+0.34	0.2	43%
1	Bowdoin College	10.58	10.60	11–3	11.0	+0.02	0.0	64%
2	Roger Williams University	10.90	9.52	9–5	11.8	−1.38	3.1	99%
7	Yale University	8.07	6.17	2–12	4.4	−1.90	2.8	99%
8	Salve Regina University	5.01	2.01	0–14	0.5	≤−3.00	0.7	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Thomas Whittemore	Connecticut College	2.63	3.34	5–5	3.6	+0.72	0.8	24%
Ian Willoughby	Eckerd College	2.76	3.35	7–7	5.5	+0.59	0.6	25%
Karl Rasmus Sayre	Eckerd College	3.24	3.79	5–7	3.7	+0.56	0.5	28%
Ivan Shestopalov	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.18	3.68	9–3	8.0	+0.50	0.4	36%
Trevor Long	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.64	3.98	9–5	8.2	+0.34	0.2	43%
Alden Grimes	Bowdoin College	3.32	2.61	7–3	8.1	−0.71	0.6	91%
Conner Harding	Roger Williams University	3.91	2.53	9–5	11.8	−1.38	3.1	99%
Spencer Cartwright	Roger Williams University	3.22	1.84	9–5	11.8	−1.38	3.1	99%
Dylan Dimarchi	Yale University	2.93	1.03	2–12	4.4	−1.90	2.8	99%
Sam Tobin	Yale University	1.99	0.09	2–12	4.4	−1.90	2.8	99%
Alex Bowdler	Salve Regina University	1.32	-1.68	0–14	0.5	≤−3.00	0.7	>99%
Grace Vincens	Salve Regina University	2.26	-0.74	0–14	0.5	≤−3.00	0.7	>99%
Anthony Root	Salve Regina University	1.81	-1.19	0–14	0.5	≤−3.00	0.7	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Eckerd College	Yale University	64%
1	2	Bowdoin College	Roger Williams University	47%	upset
1	3	Boston College	Salve Regina University	99%
1	4	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Connecticut College	59%
1	5	Bowdoin College	Yale University	94%
1	6	Boston College	Eckerd College	69%
1	7	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	84%
1	8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Salve Regina University	99%
1	9	Bowdoin College	Boston College	79%
1	10	Connecticut College	Yale University	66%
1	11	Eckerd College	Salve Regina University	92%
1	12	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	88%
1	13	Boston College	Connecticut College	70%
1	14	Bowdoin College	Salve Regina University	100%
1	15	Roger Williams University	Yale University	95%
1	16	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Eckerd College	66%
1	17	Connecticut College	Salve Regina University	90%
1	18	Boston College	Roger Williams University	17%	upset
1	19	Bowdoin College	Eckerd College	83%
1	20	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Yale University	82%
1	21	Roger Williams University	Salve Regina University	100%
1	22	Eckerd College	Connecticut College	31%	upset
1	23	Boston College	Yale University	78%
1	24	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	37%	upset
1	25	Roger Williams University	Eckerd College	92%
1	26	Yale University	Salve Regina University	95%
1	27	Connecticut College	Bowdoin College	17%	upset
1	28	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston College	56%
2	29	Eckerd College	Yale University	61%
2	30	Bowdoin College	Roger Williams University	47%	upset
2	31	Boston College	Salve Regina University	99%
2	32	Connecticut College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	44%	upset
2	33	Bowdoin College	Yale University	94%
2	34	Boston College	Eckerd College	69%
2	35	Connecticut College	Roger Williams University	17%	upset
2	36	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Salve Regina University	99%
2	37	Bowdoin College	Boston College	79%
2	38	Connecticut College	Yale University	66%
2	39	Eckerd College	Salve Regina University	91%
2	40	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	88%
2	41	Connecticut College	Boston College	33%	upset
2	42	Bowdoin College	Salve Regina University	100%
2	43	Roger Williams University	Yale University	94%
2	44	Eckerd College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	34%	upset
2	45	Connecticut College	Salve Regina University	89%
2	46	Roger Williams University	Boston College	82%
2	47	Bowdoin College	Eckerd College	83%
2	48	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Yale University	81%
2	49	Roger Williams University	Salve Regina University	100%
2	50	Connecticut College	Eckerd College	70%
2	51	Boston College	Yale University	77%
2	52	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	37%	upset
2	53	Eckerd College	Roger Williams University	8%	upset
2	54	Yale University	Salve Regina University	95%
2	55	Bowdoin College	Connecticut College	82%
2	56	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	44%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bears	Hawks	Camels	Eagles	Engineers	Tritons	Bulldogs	Seahawks
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	5–2	✕	W	L	W	L	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	5–2	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	3–4	W	L	✕	L	L	L	W	W
Boston College Eagles	5–2	L	W	W	✕	L	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	6–1	W	L	W	W	✕	W	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	3–4	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Salve Regina University Seahawks	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Bears	Hawks	Camels	Eagles	Engineers	Tritons	Bulldogs	Seahawks
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	6–1	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	4–3	L	✕	L	W	W	L	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	6–1	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	4–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	3–4	W	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	4–3	L	W	L	L	W	✕	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Salve Regina University Seahawks	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
2	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
3	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
4	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
5	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
6	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Tritons	1-5-6
7	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
8	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
9	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
10	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
11	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
12	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
13	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
14	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
15	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
16	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
17	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
18	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
19	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
20	Engineers	1-4-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-3-6
21	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
22	Tritons	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
23	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
24	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
25	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
26	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
27	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
28	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
29	Tritons	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
30	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
31	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
32	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
33	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
34	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
35	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
36	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
37	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
38	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
39	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
40	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
41	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
42	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
43	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
44	Tritons	1-4-5	def.	Engineers	2-3-6
45	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
46	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
47	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
48	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
49	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
50	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
51	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
52	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
53	Tritons	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
54	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
55	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
56	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Alden Grimes '21 Christian Filter '20 Matt Safford '20 Matthew Kaplan '19	Marie Bergsund '20 Julia Adams '21 Emily Gonzalez '20 Louisa Lindgren '19
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Conner Harding '19 Daniel Petrovic '19 Spencer Cartwright '22	Jennifer Agell '19 Emily Gildea '21 Hallie Repeta '19
Connecticut College	Camels	Carter Pemberton '20 Cj Mckenna '23 Gordon Gurnell '22 Thomas Whittemore '23 Walter Henry '23	Cecilia Moreira '20 Katherine (Katie) Rodger '20 Marion Lemay '20 Paige Dunlevy '20 Thomas Whittemore '23
Boston College	Eagles	Colin Brego '20 Peter Lynn '19 Thomas Walden '20	Eliza Wright '20 Lauren Seigel '20 Caroline Downey '19
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Ivan Shestopalov '21 John Ped '21 Stephen Duncan '20 Trevor Long '19	Sameena Shaffeeullah '19 Julia Cho '20 Kaila Pfrang '21
Eckerd College	Tritons	Cameron Douglas '20 Daniel Vail '21 Ian Willoughby '21 Karl Rasmus Sayre '19	Camryn Kennedy '21 Caroline Puckette '20 Carla Szeplaki '20 Kim Kusminsky '19 Cameron Douglas '20
Yale University	Bulldogs	Dylan Dimarchi '20 Nicholas Marwell '21 Sam Tobin '23	Anisha Arcot '23 Helena Ware '23 Mina Cezairli '21
Salve Regina University	Seahawks	Alex Bowdler '22 Anthony Root '22 Grace Vincens '20	Peter Cronin '22 Caroline King '21 Jennifer Ryan '19

Conditions — 03/09/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 58% · Pressure 1026.0 hPa

Temperature

34°F

↑ 43°F ↓ 19°F

Feels like 28°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

2.8 kn

avg · max 3.9 kn

Gusts to 5.2 kn

From WNW (304°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity58% Pressure1026.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Roger Williams — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Roger Williams in this breeze: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.10)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Roger Williams by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled fleet-race days at Roger Williams).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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