NEISA Men's Singlehanded Championship

HostRoger Williams
Date09/23/2017
TypeConference Championship
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Yale University	Nicholas Baird '19	44
2	Yale University	Malcolm Lamphere '18	50
3	Boston College	Scott Rasmussen '20	50
4	Tufts University	Alp Rodopman '17	55
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Andrew Widmeier '20	71
6	Roger Williams University	Martim Anderson '18	77
7	Brown University	Patrick Shanahan '19	92
8	Harvard University	Andrew Puopolo '19	96
9	Roger Williams University	Peter Neal '20	113
10	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Gage Schoenherr '21	115
11	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Richie Gordon '21	122
12	Bowdoin College	Christian Filter '20	131
13	Harvard University	Jackson Wagner '19	135
14	Roger Williams University	Daniel Petrovic '19	135
15	Boston University	Javier De Urdanibia Panos '21	138
16	Harvard University	Jonas Nelle '22	139
17	Boston University	Collin Alexander '20	146
18	Roger Williams University	Preston Duclos '19	154
19	Maine Maritime Academy	Cameron Loncoski '20	156
20	Roger Williams University	Paul De Souza '21	182
21	University of Vermont	Charles Hicks '20	189
22	Brown University	Gabriel Hannon '20	200
23	Yale University	Adam Wolnikowski '21	217
24	University of Rhode Island	Peter Gunn '20	231
25	University of Massachusetts at Amherst	Hugh Dougherty '21	234
26	Connecticut College	Phillip Rosenthall '18	251
27	University of Vermont	Arthur Milot '19	259

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT
Yale University	Nicholas Baird '19	1	5	1	3	3	1	3	13	10	4	44
Yale University	Malcolm Lamphere '18	2	14	2	6	1	4	1	6	11	3	50
Boston College	Scott Rasmussen '20	6	1	10	1	4	14	9	1	2	2	50
Tufts University	Alp Rodopman '17	11	7	4	2	9	2	4	7	3	6	55
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Andrew Widmeier '20	3	4	18	9	2	3	5	8	18	1	71
Roger Williams University	Martim Anderson '18	5	13	3	7	5	12	8	11	8	5	77
Brown University	Patrick Shanahan '19	16	2	8	21	15	5	2	2	13	8	92
Harvard University	Andrew Puopolo '19	14	3	12	8	6	8	20	3	5	17	96
Roger Williams University	Peter Neal '20	8	10	9	16	14	9	16	18	4	9	113
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Gage Schoenherr '21	4	8	19	17	7	11	13	14	12	10	115
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Richie Gordon '21	RAF	6	16	5	8	21	11	10	6	11	122
Bowdoin College	Christian Filter '20	13	17	11	15	10	20	15	16	7	7	131
Harvard University	Jackson Wagner '19	7	23	13	14	25	6	19	5	1	22	135
Roger Williams University	Daniel Petrovic '19	21	16	15	4	11	7	6	25	15	15	135
Boston University	Javier De Urdanibia Panos '21	15	12	14	11	17	13	7	23	14	12	138
Harvard University	Jonas Nelle '22	12	9	17	10	12	15	24	4	16	20	139
Boston University	Collin Alexander '20	19	19	7	13	13	26	14	12	9	14	146
Roger Williams University	Preston Duclos '19	9	11	6	18	20	16	10	19	24	21	154
Maine Maritime Academy	Cameron Loncoski '20	20	21	5	12	18	10	22	15	20	13	156
Roger Williams University	Paul De Souza '21	10	15	21	22	16	18	21	22	19	18	182
University of Vermont	Charles Hicks '20	25	20	24	23	19	19	12	9	22	16	189
Brown University	Gabriel Hannon '20	17	18	20	24	22	22	17	20	21	19	200
Yale University	Adam Wolnikowski '21	18	25	23	19	21	25	23	17	23	23	217
University of Rhode Island	Peter Gunn '20	26	27	22	DNF	23	17	25	21	17	25	231
University of Massachusetts at Amherst	Hugh Dougherty '21	22	22	25	26	24	24	18	24	25	24	234
Connecticut College	Phillip Rosenthall '18	23	26	27	20	26	23	27	26	27	26	251
University of Vermont	Arthur Milot '19	24	24	26	25	27	27	26	27	26	27	259

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 27 boats · 10 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Nicholas Baird '19	Yale University Bulldogs 2	10/10	3.60	4.66	+1.06	92nd → 99th	3.4	3%	4.4 / 8.9
2	Malcolm Lamphere '18	Yale University Bulldogs 1	10/10	3.28	4.40	+1.12	86th → 98th	3.8	3%	5.0 / 10.0
2	Scott Rasmussen '20	Boston College	10/10	3.13	4.36	+1.22	84th → 98th	4.5	2%	5.0 / 10.6
4	Alp Rodopman '17	Tufts University	10/10	3.33	4.31	+0.98	88th → 98th	3.0	12%	5.5 / 9.9
5	Andrew Widmeier '20	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3	10/10	2.49	3.58	+1.09	63rd → 92nd	3.7	3%	7.1 / 13.0
6	Martim Anderson '18	Roger Williams University Hawks 3	10/10	3.33	3.72	+0.39	88th → 93rd	0.6	31%	7.7 / 9.9
7	Patrick Shanahan '19	Brown University Bears 2	10/10	3.35	2.96	−0.39	89th → 81st	0.6	45%	9.2 / 9.8
8	Andrew Puopolo '19	Harvard University Crimson 2	10/10	2.13	3.06	+0.93	56th → 83rd	2.9	12%	9.6 / 14.4
9	Peter Neal '20	Roger Williams University Hawks 1	10/10	2.49	2.92	+0.43	63rd → 79th	0.7	33%	11.3 / 13.0
10	Gage Schoenherr '21	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2	10/10	2.78	2.86	+0.09	74th → 78th	0.0	49%	11.5 / 11.9
11	Richie Gordon '21	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1	10/10	3.09	2.95	−0.14	83rd → 81st	0.1	71%	12.2 / 10.7
12	Christian Filter '20	Bowdoin College	10/10	2.65	2.61	−0.04	70th → 68th	0.0	56%	13.1 / 12.6
13	Daniel Petrovic '19	Roger Williams University Hawks 4	10/10	2.31	2.18	−0.13	60th → 57th	0.1	48%	13.5 / 13.7
13	Jackson Wagner '19	Harvard University Crimson 1	10/10	2.16	1.87	−0.29	56th → 47th	0.3	42%	13.5 / 14.4
15	Javier De Urdanibia Panos '21	Boston University Terriers 2	10/10	2.43	2.45	+0.02	62nd → 62nd	0.0	57%	13.8 / 13.3
16	Jonas Nelle '22	Harvard University Crimson 3	10/10	2.11	2.24	+0.13	55th → 59th	0.1	44%	13.9 / 14.5
17	Collin Alexander '20	Boston University Terriers 1	10/10	2.18	2.03	−0.15	57th → 53rd	0.1	54%	14.6 / 14.2
18	Preston Duclos '19	Roger Williams University Hawks 5	10/10	2.34	1.94	−0.40	60th → 50th	0.7	66%	15.4 / 13.7
19	Cameron Loncoski '20	Maine Maritime Academy	10/10	2.07	2.02	−0.05	53rd → 53rd	0.0	59%	15.6 / 14.6
20	Paul De Souza '21	Roger Williams University Hawks 2	10/10	1.58	1.77	+0.19	39th → 43rd	0.1	65%	18.2 / 16.5
21	Charles Hicks '20	University of Vermont Catamounts 2	10/10	1.76	1.30	−0.46	43rd → 30th	0.9	77%	18.9 / 15.9
22	Gabriel Hannon '20	Brown University Bears 1	10/10	1.43	1.47	+0.03	34th → 37th	0.0	81%	20.0 / 17.2
23	Adam Wolnikowski '21	Yale University Bulldogs 3	10/10	0.49	1.10	+0.62	14th → 25th	1.4	62%	21.7 / 20.3
24	Peter Gunn '20	University of Rhode Island	10/10	1.02	0.38	−0.64	23rd → 12th	1.4	89%	23.1 / 18.5
25	Hugh Dougherty '21	University of Massachusetts at Amherst	10/10	0.72	0.60	−0.12	17th → 15th	0.1	88%	23.4 / 19.5
26	Phillip Rosenthall '18	Connecticut College	10/10	0.88	-0.29	−1.17	21st → 4th	5.2	98%	25.1 / 18.9
27	Arthur Milot '19	University of Vermont Catamounts 1	10/10	1.12	-0.69	−1.81	25th → 2nd	12.3	>99%	25.9 / 18.2

Conditions — 09/23/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 80% · Pressure 1015.8 hPa

Temperature

71°F

↑ 76°F ↓ 64°F

Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

11.1 kn

avg · max 13.4 kn

Gusts to 20.8 kn

From NNE (23°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover49% Sunshine8.4 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1015.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Roger Williams — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Roger Williams in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Roger Williams by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled fleet-race days at Roger Williams).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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