| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | 4–1 |
| 2 |  |
Cornell University | Big Red | 4–1 |
| 3 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | 3–2 |
| 4 |  |
SUNY Maritime College | Privateers | 2–3 |
| 5 |  |
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | 2–3 |
| 6 |  |
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 9,566 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-03, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 7 of 12 matches (58%) with a log-loss of 0.806 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −1.07 ± 0.52: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 2% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cornell University | 8.69 | 10.81 | 3–2 | 1.1 | +2.12 | 3.1 | 5% |
| 4 | SUNY Maritime College | 8.64 | 9.49 | 2–3 | 1.2 | +0.85 | 0.5 | 34% |
| 3 | U. S. Naval Academy | 10.23 | 9.57 | 2–2 | 2.5 | −0.67 | 0.2 | 89% |
| 1 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 11.40 | 10.72 | 4–1 | 4.4 | −0.69 | 0.2 | 90% |
| 5 | Old Dominion University | 9.79 | 7.79 | 1–4 | 2.8 | −2.01 | 2.6 | 99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clark Uhl | Cornell University | 3.01 | 5.13 | 3–2 | 1.1 | +2.12 | 3.1 | 5% |
| Connor Kelter | Cornell University | 2.91 | 5.03 | 3–2 | 1.1 | +2.12 | 3.1 | 5% |
| Zachary Hill | SUNY Maritime College | 3.30 | 4.15 | 2–3 | 1.2 | +0.85 | 0.5 | 34% |
| John Lawless | SUNY Maritime College | 2.29 | 3.14 | 2–3 | 1.2 | +0.85 | 0.5 | 34% |
| Maxwell Brill | U. S. Naval Academy | 2.93 | 2.27 | 2–2 | 2.5 | −0.67 | 0.2 | 89% |
| Gary Prieto | U. S. Naval Academy | 3.62 | 2.96 | 2–2 | 2.5 | −0.67 | 0.2 | 89% |
| Charles Miller | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 3.40 | 2.71 | 4–1 | 4.4 | −0.69 | 0.2 | 90% |
| Jeremy Herrin | Old Dominion University | 3.71 | 1.71 | 1–4 | 2.8 | −2.01 | 2.6 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Statesmen | Red | Midshipmen | Privateers | Monarchs | Quakers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 4–1 | ✕ | W | L | W | W | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 3–2 | W | L | ✕ | L | W | W |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 3–3 | L | L | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 2–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Statesmen | Red | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 1–0 | ✕ | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 0–1 | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Privateers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 2-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Big Red | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Quakers | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Privateers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Quakers | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Big Red | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-3-6 |
| 7 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Quakers | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Big Red | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Quakers | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Privateers | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Big Red | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 2-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Quakers | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Privateers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Statesmen | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 2-3-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | Charles Miller '19 Greiner Hobbs '18 Hector Guzman '20 |
Lindsey Kloc '19 Kyle Easton '20 Christopher Manson-Hing '19 Russell Merchant '19 |
|
Cornell University | Big Red | Clark Uhl '19 Connor Kelter '18 Thomas Balk '18 |
Gillian Boehringer '18 Tara Bergstrom '18 Kate Selley '20 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | Gary Prieto '18 Maxwell Brill '20 Peter Hogan '18 |
Ana Mier '19 Kent Mathes '20 Kelly Milliken '21 |
|
SUNY Maritime College | Privateers | John Lawless '19 Kyle Comerford '19 Zachary Hill '18 |
Aidan Molesky '20 Skye Miller '19 Timothy Montera '18 |
|
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | Jack Elkin '19 James Jacob '18 Jeremy Herrin '18 |
Gavin Burkhart '20 Emily Harrison '21 Carter Little '18 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
