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Oyster Bowl Fleet 1

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 87
2 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 113
3 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 116
4 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 120
5 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 136
6 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 158
7 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 170
8 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 216
9 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 253
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars B 1 1 8 3 9 3 3 7 35 Steven Leuck '20
Payton Alexander '19
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 B 13 9 5 1 4 9 1 6 48 Parker Loftus '20
Kimmie Leonard '22
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 B 10 2 7 7 12 6 4 2 50 Jc Hermus '22
Kent Mathes '20
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars A 2 5 1 2 10 11 8 13 52 Augie Dale '19
Katherine Lounsbury '20
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs A 6 15 4 8 2 5 2 10 52 Jack Elkin '19
Makalynne Dyer '22
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials B 7 13 15 11 6 2 7 3 64 Wade Wagner '19
Clare Cassidy-Gardner '21
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 A 4 7 10 4 5 12 15 8 65 Maxwell Brill '20
Ana Mier '19
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 A 5 4 17 5 8 15 11 1 66 Connor Bayless '21
Sarah Barkley '19
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs B 9 3 12 13 13 4 10 4 68 Dreugh Phillips '21
Breanna Schultz '21
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks A 3 17 9 6 1 8 16 11 71 Liam Mccarthy '19 [1-8]
Sophia Taczak '21 [1-2]
Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger '19 [3-8]
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials A 8 14 6 16 3 1 12 12 72 Derek Poon Tip '19
Andreea Rainey-Pace '20
Fordham University Fordham University Rams A 11 6 11 9 7 13 9 14 80 Brad Seferian '19
William Dumke '20
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks B 14 11 2 12 18 7 14 9 87 Lewis Cooper '21 [1-8]
Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger '19 [1-2]
Thomas Walker '21 [3-4]
Sophia Taczak '21 [5-8]
Fordham University Fordham University Rams B 17 8 16 10 11 10 13 5 90 Tucker Hersam '20
Edward Harrison '22
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas B 12 12 13 17 14 16 6 15 105 Boyd Housey '22
Emmeline Vermylen '21
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas A 16 10 14 14 17 18 5 17 111 Thomas Mccann '22
Annabelle Ayer '22
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers A 15 16 3 15 16 14 DSQ 18 116 John Lawless '19
Brian Buckley '21
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers B 18 18 18 18 15 17 17 16 137 Aidan Molesky '20
Christian Neuman '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (41 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars11111111
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams22222222
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials33333333
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas44444444
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 188888888
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 299999999
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers66666666
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs55555555
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks77777777

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars1010101010101010
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams1111111111111111
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials1212121212121212
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas1313131313131313
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 11717171717171717
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 21818181818181818
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers1515151515151515
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs1414141414141414
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks1616161616161616

Conditions — 10/13/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1014.2 hPa

Temperature

58°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.3 kn
avg  ·  max 10.6 kn
Gusts to 24.9 kn
From NW (321°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover58% Sunshine8.0 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1014.2 hPa Rain0.08 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 13 kn · S 7 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Mary's: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.16 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.03 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled days at St. Mary's).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →