Aaron Szambecki Team Race

HostOld Dominion
Date03/23/2019
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	College of Charleston	Cougars	18–3
2	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	16–5
3	George Washington University	Colonials	15–6
4	Harvard University	Crimson	10–11
5	Stanford University	Cardinal	8–10
6	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	8–10
7	Jacksonville University	Fins	7–11
8	Tufts University	Jumbos	7–11
9	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	5–13
10	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	2–16

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 12,846 team race matches sailed before 2019-03-23, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 64 of 96 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.613 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.34 ± 0.22: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 17% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	College of Charleston Cougars	1	11.20 school +0.46	Jack Brown / Carter Cameron 3.39 Augie Dale / Hunter Skinner 3.84 Steven Leuck / Annabel Carrington 3.48	76%	18–3 (86%)	+2.1
2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3	10.64 school +0.30	Connor Bayless / Kimmie Leonard 3.52 15–3 Maxwell Brill / Emma Remis 3.32 12–1 Parker Loftus / Sean Linden 3.46 9–3 Maxwell Brill / Sean Linden 3.30 3–2 Jc Hermus / Sean Linden 3.37 4–0 Parker Loftus / Jc Hermus 3.45 1–2 Connor Bayless / Emma Remis 3.56 1–2 Jc Hermus / Emma Remis 3.41 1–2 Jc Hermus / Parker Loftus 3.39 2–0	66%	16–5 (76%)	+2.1
3	George Washington University Colonials	7	9.84 school +0.16	Matt Logue / Michael Houllahan 3.02 9–4 Andrew Sheerin / Marshall Mccraw 3.56 10–3 Derek Poon Tip / Michael Houllahan 3.06 6–2 Andrew Sheerin / Zachary Lehan 3.65 5–3 Wade Wagner / Zachary Lehan 2.90 6–1 Derek Poon Tip / Zachary Lehan 3.28 4–2 Wade Wagner / Mercedes Mcphee 2.75 4–1 Derek Poon Tip / Clare Cassidy-Gardner 3.32 1–2	44%	15–6 (71%)	+5.9
4	Harvard University Crimson	5	10.24	Eli Burnes / Eric Hansen 3.48 Henry Burnes / Jessica Williams 3.58 Nicholas Karnovsky / Owen Schafer 3.16	56%	10–11 (48%)	−1.7
5	Stanford University Cardinal	2	10.81 school +0.61	Wiley Rogers / Madeline Bubb 3.82 Telis Athanasopoulos Yogo / Mathew Hogan 3.44 John Kirkpatrick / Victoria Thompson 2.88 8–8 John Kirkpatrick / Laurel Foster 2.88 0–2	70%	8–10 (44%)	−4.7
6	Old Dominion University Monarchs	6	9.84 school +0.05, home +0.35	Olivia Windemuller / Gavin Burkhart 2.54 Dreugh Phillips / Makalynne Dyer 3.26 6–10 Jack Elkin / Abigail Tutt 3.62 5–7 Jack Elkin / Bridget Groble 3.58 3–3 Dreugh Phillips / Victoria Ewing 3.18 2–0	47%	8–10 (44%)	−0.4
7	Jacksonville University Fins	8	9.35 school +0.26	Alfonso Garcia Bringas / Ian Hunter 3.34 6–8 Andre Guaragna / Chris Kiener 2.97 6–8 Stephan Verhulst / Samuel Baker 2.48 6–8 Alfonso Garcia Bringas / Daniel Ofarril 3.54 1–3 Andre Guaragna / Caroline Bourgeois 3.18 1–3 Stephan Verhulst / Ana Carrasco 2.70 1–3	38%	7–11 (39%)	+0.2
8	Tufts University Jumbos	9	8.99 school +0.08	Charlie Hibben / Sabina Van Mell 2.93 Jack Bitney / Maria Brush 3.18 Samuel Shea / Audrey Becker 2.66	30%	7–11 (39%)	+1.7
9	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4	10.33 school +0.46	Liam Mccarthy / Kate Bjerregaard 3.64 Leo Boucher / Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger 3.15 5–7 Lewis Cooper / Thomas Walker 3.38 2–6 Joshua Paper / Thomas Walker 2.82 3–3 Lewis Cooper / Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger 3.25 0–4 Joshua Paper / Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger 2.68 0–2 Leo Boucher / Kaisey Mccallion 3.04 0–2 Joshua Paper / Kaisey Mccallion 2.57 0–2	59%	5–13 (28%)	−5.7
10	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	10	7.39 school −0.39	Carrson Pearce / Eddy Harris 3.17 Kieran Cullen / Rachel Mckenzie 2.11 2–14 Luke Welker / Adam Krzeszowski 2.38 2–10 Luke Welker / Rachel Beisswenger 2.45 0–6 Kieran Cullen / Amanda Yeam 2.05 0–2	8%	2–16 (11%)	+0.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	George Washington University	9.84	11.19	15–6	9.1	+1.35	5.6	1%
1	College of Charleston	11.20	11.88	18–3	15.9	+0.68	1.0	21%
2	U. S. Naval Academy	10.64	11.20	16–5	13.9	+0.56	0.8	22%
8	Tufts University	8.99	9.51	7–11	5.3	+0.52	0.6	24%
10	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	7.39	7.81	2–16	1.4	+0.42	0.2	41%
7	Jacksonville University	9.35	9.42	7–11	6.8	+0.07	0.0	55%
6	Old Dominion University	9.84	9.72	8–10	8.4	−0.12	0.0	68%
4	Harvard University	10.24	9.84	10–11	11.7	−0.40	0.5	86%
5	Stanford University	10.81	9.53	8–10	12.7	−1.28	4.4	>99%
9	St. Mary's College of Maryland	10.33	8.63	5–13	10.7	−1.70	6.7	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Andrew Sheerin	George Washington University	3.56	4.91	15–6	9.1	+1.35	5.6	1%
Maxwell Brill	U. S. Naval Academy	3.32	4.46	15–3	11.7	+1.14	2.6	6%
Jack Brown	College of Charleston	3.39	4.07	18–3	15.9	+0.68	1.0	21%
Augie Dale	College of Charleston	3.84	4.52	18–3	15.9	+0.68	1.0	21%
Charlie Hibben	Tufts University	2.93	3.45	7–11	5.3	+0.52	0.6	24%
Samuel Shea	Tufts University	2.66	3.18	7–11	5.3	+0.52	0.6	24%
Jc Hermus	U. S. Naval Academy	3.37	3.80	7–2	6.4	+0.43	0.2	47%
Carrson Pearce	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	3.17	3.59	2–16	1.4	+0.42	0.2	41%
Alfonso Garcia Bringas	Jacksonville University	3.34	3.42	7–11	6.8	+0.07	0.0	55%
Andre Guaragna	Jacksonville University	2.97	3.05	7–11	6.8	+0.07	0.0	55%
Stephan Verhulst	Jacksonville University	2.48	2.56	7–11	6.8	+0.07	0.0	55%
Eli Burnes	Harvard University	3.48	3.08	10–11	11.7	−0.40	0.5	86%
Telis Athanasopoulos Yogo	Stanford University	3.44	2.15	8–10	12.7	−1.28	4.4	>99%
Joshua Paper	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.82	1.33	3–7	5.6	−1.49	2.7	99%
Lewis Cooper	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.38	1.23	2–10	6.7	−2.15	6.7	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	U. S. Naval Academy	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	96%
1	2	Old Dominion University	Jacksonville University	54%
1	3	Harvard University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	51%
1	4	George Washington University	Stanford University	33%	upset
1	5	College of Charleston	Tufts University	91%
1	6	Old Dominion University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	92%
1	7	Harvard University	U. S. Naval Academy	40%	upset
1	8	George Washington University	Jacksonville University	58%
1	9	Tufts University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	15%	upset
1	10	College of Charleston	Stanford University	60%
1	11	Harvard University	Old Dominion University	59%
1	12	George Washington University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	91%
1	13	U. S. Naval Academy	Tufts University	85%
1	14	Stanford University	Jacksonville University	85%
1	15	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	68%
1	16	George Washington University	Harvard University	37%	upset
1	17	Tufts University	Old Dominion University	29%	upset
1	18	Stanford University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	97%
1	19	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	65%
1	20	College of Charleston	Jacksonville University	89%
1	21	George Washington University	Tufts University	68%
1	22	Harvard University	Stanford University	36%	upset
1	23	Old Dominion University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	30%	upset
1	24	Jacksonville University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	86%
1	25	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	64%
1	26	Tufts University	Stanford University	14%	upset
1	27	George Washington University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	35%	upset
1	28	Jacksonville University	Harvard University	27%	upset
1	29	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	70%
1	30	College of Charleston	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	98%
1	31	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	67%
1	32	Jacksonville University	Tufts University	56%
1	33	George Washington University	U. S. Naval Academy	25%	upset
1	34	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	79%
1	35	Harvard University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	95%
1	36	Jacksonville University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	30%	upset
1	37	U. S. Naval Academy	Stanford University	44%	upset
1	38	George Washington University	Old Dominion University	43%	upset
1	39	Tufts University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	83%
1	40	College of Charleston	Harvard University	72%
1	41	U. S. Naval Academy	Jacksonville University	80%
1	42	Stanford University	Old Dominion University	72%
1	43	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	6%	upset
1	44	Tufts University	Harvard University	22%	upset
1	45	College of Charleston	George Washington University	74%
2	46	Old Dominion University	Jacksonville University	54%
2	47	Harvard University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	51%
2	48	George Washington University	Stanford University	31%	upset
2	49	U. S. Naval Academy	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	96%
2	50	College of Charleston	Tufts University	90%
2	51	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Jacksonville University	13%	upset
2	52	U. S. Naval Academy	Harvard University	60%
2	53	George Washington University	Old Dominion University	43%	upset
2	54	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tufts University	84%
2	55	Stanford University	College of Charleston	41%	upset
2	56	Jacksonville University	Harvard University	28%	upset
2	57	George Washington University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	90%
2	58	U. S. Naval Academy	Tufts University	84%
2	59	Stanford University	Old Dominion University	72%
2	60	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	68%
2	61	Harvard University	George Washington University	63%
2	62	Jacksonville University	Tufts University	57%
2	63	Stanford University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	97%
2	64	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	66%
2	65	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	79%
2	66	George Washington University	Tufts University	66%
2	67	Harvard University	Stanford University	36%	upset
2	68	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Jacksonville University	69%
2	69	Old Dominion University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	91%
2	70	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	64%
2	71	Tufts University	Stanford University	14%	upset
2	72	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	66%
2	73	Old Dominion University	Harvard University	41%	upset
2	74	U. S. Naval Academy	Jacksonville University	79%
2	75	College of Charleston	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	98%
2	76	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Stanford University	33%	upset
2	77	Old Dominion University	Tufts University	69%
2	78	George Washington University	U. S. Naval Academy	24%	upset
2	79	Harvard University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	94%
2	80	College of Charleston	Jacksonville University	87%
2	81	Old Dominion University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	29%	upset
2	82	U. S. Naval Academy	Stanford University	44%	upset
2	83	Tufts University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	83%
2	84	Jacksonville University	George Washington University	42%	upset
2	85	College of Charleston	Harvard University	72%
2	86	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	70%
2	87	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	94%
2	88	Stanford University	Jacksonville University	82%
2	89	Harvard University	Tufts University	77%
2	90	College of Charleston	George Washington University	74%
4	91	U. S. Naval Academy	College of Charleston	37%	upset
4	92	George Washington University	Harvard University	36%	upset
4	93	George Washington University	College of Charleston	26%	upset
4	94	U. S. Naval Academy	Harvard University	60%
4	95	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	76%
4	96	College of Charleston	Harvard University	72%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Midshipmen	Colonials	Crimson	Cardinal	Monarchs	Fins	Jumbos	Seahawks	Mariners
College of Charleston Cougars	9–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6–3	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	8–1	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	5–4	L	W	L	✕	W	W	L	L	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	4–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	4–5	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	5–4	L	L	L	W	W	W	L	✕	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	0–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Midshipmen	Colonials	Crimson	Cardinal	Monarchs	Fins	Jumbos	Seahawks	Mariners
College of Charleston Cougars	8–1	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	7–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	5–4	L	W	✕	L	W	W	L	W	L	W
Harvard University Crimson	5–4	L	L	W	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	4–5	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	L	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	5–4	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	3–6	L	L	W	W	L	L	✕	W	L	L
Tufts University Jumbos	2–7	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	5–4	L	L	W	L	W	L	W	W	✕	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Midshipmen	Colonials	Crimson
College of Charleston Cougars	1–2	✕	L	L	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–0	W	✕	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	2–1	W	L	✕	W
Harvard University Crimson	0–3	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Midshipmen	1-3-6	def.	Mariners	2-4-5
2	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Fins	1-5-6
3	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
4	Colonials	2-3-5	def.	Cardinal	1-4-6
5	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
6	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
7	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
8	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
9	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
10	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
11	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
12	Colonials	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
13	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
14	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Fins	3-5-6
15	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
16	Colonials	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
17	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
18	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
19	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
20	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
21	Colonials	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
22	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
23	Monarchs	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
24	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
25	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
26	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
27	Colonials	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
28	Fins	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
29	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
30	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
31	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
32	Fins	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
33	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
34	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
35	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
36	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
37	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
38	Colonials	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
39	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Mariners	3-5-6
40	Cougars	1-3-5	def.	Crimson	2-4-6
41	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
42	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
43	Mariners	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
44	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
45	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
46	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Fins	3-4-5
47	Crimson	2-3-5	def.	Seahawks	1-4-6
48	Colonials	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
49	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
50	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
51	Mariners	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
52	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
53	Colonials	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
54	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
55	Cardinal	1-3-4	def.	Cougars	2-5-6
56	Fins	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
57	Colonials	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
58	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
59	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
60	Cougars	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
61	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Colonials	2-3-6
62	Fins	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
63	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Mariners	3-4-5
64	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
65	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
66	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
67	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
68	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
69	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
70	Cougars	1-4-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-3-6
71	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
72	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
73	Monarchs	2-3-5	def.	Crimson	1-4-6
74	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
75	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
76	Seahawks	2-3-5	def.	Cardinal	1-4-6
77	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
78	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
79	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Mariners	3-4-5
80	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Fins	3-5-6
81	Monarchs	1-3-6	def.	Seahawks	2-4-5
82	Midshipmen	1-3-5	def.	Cardinal	2-4-6
83	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
84	Fins	2-3-4	def.	Colonials	1-5-6
85	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
86	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Monarchs	2-5-6
87	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
88	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Fins	3-4-5
89	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
90	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
91	Midshipmen	1-4-5	def.	Cougars	2-3-6
92	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
93	Colonials	1-3-4	def.	Cougars	2-5-6
94	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6 DNF
95	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
96	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
College of Charleston	Cougars	Augie Dale '19 Jack Brown '21 Steven Leuck '20	Hunter Skinner '20 Carter Cameron '19 Annabel Carrington '19
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Connor Bayless '21 Jc Hermus '22 Maxwell Brill '20 Parker Loftus '20	Kimmie Leonard '22 Emma Remis '20 Sean Linden '21 Parker Loftus '20 Jc Hermus '22
George Washington University	Colonials	Andrew Sheerin '19 Derek Poon Tip '19 Matt Logue '22 Wade Wagner '19	Marshall Mccraw '20 Zachary Lehan '20 Michael Houllahan '20 Clare Cassidy-Gardner '21 Mercedes Mcphee '19
Harvard University	Crimson	Eli Burnes '22 Henry Burnes '22 Nicholas Karnovsky '19	Eric Hansen '23 Jessica Williams '20 Owen Schafer '21
Stanford University	Cardinal	John Kirkpatrick '22 Telis Athanasopoulos Yogo '22 Wiley Rogers '22	Victoria Thompson '21 Laurel Foster '22 Mathew Hogan '21 Madeline Bubb '20
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Dreugh Phillips '21 Jack Elkin '19 Olivia Windemuller '19	Victoria Ewing '19 Makalynne Dyer '22 Abigail Tutt '21 Bridget Groble '22 Gavin Burkhart '20
Jacksonville University	Fins	Alfonso Garcia Bringas '21 Andre Guaragna '21 Stephan Verhulst '19	Ian Hunter '21 Daniel Ofarril '22 Chris Kiener '21 Caroline Bourgeois '22 Samuel Baker '22 Ana Carrasco '21
Tufts University	Jumbos	Charlie Hibben '22 Jack Bitney '19 Samuel Shea '19	Sabina Van Mell '19 Maria Brush '21 Audrey Becker '22
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Joshua Paper '20 Leo Boucher '22 Lewis Cooper '21 Liam Mccarthy '19	Thomas Walker '21 Kaisey Mccallion '19 Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger '19 Kate Bjerregaard '19
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	Carrson Pearce '21 Kieran Cullen '21 Luke Welker '21	Eddy Harris '22 Rachel Mckenzie '22 Amanda Yeam '22 Rachel Beisswenger '22 Adam Krzeszowski '21

Conditions — 03/23/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 38% · Pressure 1020.3 hPa

Temperature

51°F

↑ 56°F ↓ 43°F

Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

13.7 kn

avg · max 15.4 kn

Gusts to 28.0 kn

From WNW (296°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover1% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity38% Pressure1020.3 hPa

What this breeze does at Old Dominion — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 15 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Old Dominion in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Old Dominion by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (76 labelled fleet-race days at Old Dominion).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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