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SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT
Georgetown University Georgetown University Greg Martinez '18 7 2 1 3 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 4 1 2 29
Georgetown University Georgetown University Jack Marshall '18 1 3 3 1 2 3 5 6 8 5 4 1 3 4 49
George Washington University George Washington University Brendan Shanahan '17 2 1 5 7 3 2 1 3 2 7 3 13 2 1 52
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Gary Prieto '18 9 4 2 12 4 4 3 2 3 3 6 2 12 7 73
Georgetown University Georgetown University Clay Broussard '18 8 8 4 2 5 5 9 9 10 1 10 7 11 8 97
George Washington University George Washington University Colin Kennedy '17 4 9 14 13 7 15 7 8 4 9 7 9 5 9 120
University of Virginia University of Virginia Colin Suvak '19 13 15 7 4 RAF 9 10 16 5 6 13 3 4 3 129
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Jeremy Herrin '18 3 6 8 14 16 7 6 11 6 11 16 10 13 6 133
George Washington University George Washington University Adam Didomizio '19 12 16 9 8 10 14 12 7 12 4 2 8 6 13 133
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Austin Powers '17 5 14 11 9 11 13 8 5 7 12 5 18 8 15 141
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Alec Chicoine '18 11 7 15 5 6 6 14 10 14 15 15 15 10 10 153
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Tyler Fleig '19 14 12 20 10 14 10 4 4 11 13 8 11 9 17 157
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Spencer Nora '17 18 10 6 6 15 19 13 14 15 8 9 5 7 12 157
William and Mary William and Mary Eric Roos '19 15 11 16 11 8 11 17 13 13 18 12 6 17 5 173
George Washington University George Washington University Wade Wagner '19 6 18 10 16 12 8 11 18 16 10 14 14 15 16 184
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Patrick Snow '17 10 5 17 20 9 12 18 12 19 16 11 12 14 11 186
Georgetown University Georgetown University Tuckerman Jones '17 19 17 12 17 13 16 15 15 9 14 19 16 19 14 215
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Joshua Paper '20 17 13 13 15 17 18 16 17 18 19 17 17 18 18 233
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Brendon Wilkins '18 16 19 18 18 18 17 19 19 17 17 18 20 16 19 251
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Bailey Hurst '20 20 20 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 20 20 276

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  20 boats · 14 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Greg Martinez '18Georgetown University Hoyas 114/143.535.75+2.2392nd → 99th14.4<1%2.1 / 6.7
2Jack Marshall '18Georgetown University Hoyas 214/142.964.61+1.6581st → 99th10.01%3.5 / 8.3
3Brendan Shanahan '17George Washington University Colonials 314/143.344.38+1.0488th → 98th4.33%3.7 / 7.1
4Gary Prieto '18U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 114/143.193.76+0.5785th → 93rd1.514%5.2 / 7.5
5Clay Broussard '18Georgetown University Hoyas 314/142.133.33+1.2056th → 88th6.35%6.9 / 10.7
6Colin Kennedy '17George Washington University Colonials 214/142.312.84+0.5360th → 77th1.426%8.6 / 10.1
7Colin Suvak '19University of Virginia14/142.252.72+0.4759th → 72nd1.030%9.2 / 10.4
8Adam Didomizio '19George Washington University Colonials 114/141.962.57+0.6150th → 67th1.823%9.5 / 11.2
8Jeremy Herrin '18Old Dominion University Monarchs 314/142.662.49−0.1770th → 63rd0.257%9.5 / 9.1
10Austin Powers '17Christopher Newport University Captains 114/142.232.37+0.1458th → 61st0.147%10.1 / 10.4
11Alec Chicoine '18Old Dominion University Monarchs 214/142.352.30−0.0560th → 59th0.067%10.9 / 10.0
12Spencer Nora '17U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 314/141.511.97+0.4638th → 51st1.033%11.2 / 12.4
12Tyler Fleig '19U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 414/141.801.99+0.1844th → 51st0.244%11.2 / 11.6
14Eric Roos '19William and Mary14/141.011.96+0.9623rd → 50th4.222%12.4 / 13.9
15Wade Wagner '19George Washington University Colonials 414/142.161.73−0.4356th → 43rd1.181%13.1 / 10.6
16Patrick Snow '17U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 214/143.031.32−1.7283rd → 31st20.697%13.3 / 8.1
17Tuckerman Jones '17Georgetown University Hoyas 414/141.611.20−0.4140th → 28th1.087%15.4 / 12.2
18Joshua Paper '20St. Mary's College of Maryland14/141.631.00−0.6340th → 22nd2.596%16.6 / 12.1
19Brendon Wilkins '18Old Dominion University Monarchs 114/141.190.57−0.6228th → 15th2.298%17.9 / 13.3
20Bailey Hurst '20Christopher Newport University Captains 214/140.82-1.67−2.4918th → 1st16.2>99%19.7 / 14.2

Conditions — 09/10/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 67%  ·  Pressure 1015.1 hPa

Temperature

85°F
↑ 89°F   ↓ 78°F
Feels like 92°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.4 kn
avg  ·  max 11.7 kn
Gusts to 20.4 kn
From S (183°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover54% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1015.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →