William and Mary Spring Open

HostWilliam and Mary
Date03/18/2017
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	19	8	27
2	Stevens Institute of Technology	Ducks	10	18	28
3	Hampton University	Pirates	32	14	46
4	Christopher Newport University	Captains	21	25	46
5	SUNY Stony Brook	Seawolves	28	26	54
6	Drexel University	Dragons	36	36	72
7	Virginia Tech	Hokies	36	50	86
8	University of Maryland	Terps	49	47	96
9	Rutgers University	Rutgers	51	51	102
10	American University	Eagles	54	63	117
11	University of Virginia	Wahoos	62	66	128

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Stevens Institute of Technology	Ducks	1	2	1	4	1	1	10	Matthew Roleke '19 [1-6] Sean Maggio '20 [1-2] Peter Teague '18 [3-6]
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	2	4	4	3	4	2	19	Brendon Wilkins '18 Stephen Guglielmo '19
Christopher Newport University	Captains	9	3	2	2	2	3	21	Spencer Charney '20 [1-4] Anders Hudson '17 [5-6] Vir Menon '20 [1-4] Spencer Charney '20 [5-6]
SUNY Stony Brook	Seawolves	4	1	3	6	6	8	28	Jeremy Mccauley '20 Maisy Claudio '18
Hampton University	Pirates	3	7	7	1	8	6	32	Filip Stevanovic '20 [1-6] Jadyn Taylor '20 [1-2] Mercedes Matlock '20 [3-4] Khari Parrish '20 [5-6]
Virginia Tech	Hokies	6	5	6	7	5	7	36	Nathan Gibson '19 Erica Vandeveer '17
Drexel University	Dragons	7	6	5	5	9	4	36	Frederick Piasecki '20 Elizabeth Jarvie '18
University of Maryland	Terps	10	11	BYE	8	3	9	49	Jacob Stoner '19 Madeline Mulligan '20
Rutgers University	Rutgers	11	10	9	9	7	5	51	Edgard Sanchez '19 [1-2, 5-6] Michael Molman '20 [3-4] Jeremy Welsch '18 [1-2, 5-6]
American University	Eagles	8	8	8	10	10	10	54	Dylan Brady '19 Nicholas Del Giudice '19
University of Virginia	Wahoos	5	9	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	62	Ian Palmer '19 Connor Segal '20

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	1	1	1	1	1	3	8	George White '20 Gavin Burkhart '20
Hampton University	Pirates	2	4	3	2	2	1	14	Dario Abou Rjeili '20 [1] Luca Taglialegne '20 [2-6] Lance Sharpe '20 [1] Alyssa Seunarine '17 [2-4] Imani Thomas '18 [5-6]
Stevens Institute of Technology	Ducks	5	2	2	4	3	2	18	Andrew O'Brien '19 [1-6] Meredith Foor '18 [1-2] Christopher Cowan '20 [3-6]
Christopher Newport University	Captains	4	5	4	3	5	4	25	Ian O'Connell '20 [1-2] Benjamin Kempton '18 [3-6] Mikaela Farrugia '20 [1-2]
SUNY Stony Brook	Seawolves	3	3	6	5	4	5	26	Peter Sander '17 Samantha Mislinski '19
Drexel University	Dragons	7	6	5	6	6	6	36	Haley Clemson '20 [1-6] Elizabeth Calio '20 [1-2] James Giebel '21 [3-6]
University of Maryland	Terps	10	7	8	8	7	7	47	Ryan Howard '20 Umd Test '25
Virginia Tech	Hokies	8	9	7	7	10	9	50	Nicholas Stamps '20 Katherine Roberts '18
Rutgers University	Rutgers	9	8	9	9	8	8	51	Margaret Morrow '18 [1] Robert Jarrett '17 [2-6] Declan Mcnamara '20 [1]
American University	Eagles	DNS	DNF	10	10	9	10	63	Andrew Fallone '19 [1-6] Dylan Speicher '19 [1-2] Yuwen Chen '19 [3-6]
University of Virginia	Wahoos	6	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	66	Katherine Green '19 Marion Hopkinson '20

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.090+0.09

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
American University Eagles	1	1	3	3	12	12
Christopher Newport University Captains	2	2	4	4	6	6
Drexel University Dragons	3	3	12	12	7	7
Hampton University Pirates	4	4	6	6	8	8
University of Maryland Terps	9	9	11	11	2	2
Old Dominion University Monarchs	12	12	7	7	9	9
Rutgers University Rutgers	6	6	8	8	10	10
Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks	8	8	10	10	1	1
SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves	7	7	9	9	11	11
University of Virginia Wahoos	10	10	1	1	3	3
Virginia Tech Hokies	11	11	2	2	4	4

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
American University Eagles	2	2	4	4	6	6
Christopher Newport University Captains	3	3	12	12	7	7
Drexel University Dragons	4	4	6	6	8	8
Hampton University Pirates	12	12	7	7	9	9
University of Maryland Terps	10	10	1	1	3	3
Old Dominion University Monarchs	6	6	8	8	10	10
Rutgers University Rutgers	7	7	9	9	11	11
Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks	9	9	11	11	2	2
SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves	8	8	10	10	1	1
University of Virginia Wahoos	11	11	2	2	4	4
Virginia Tech Hokies	1	1	3	3	12	12

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
American University	Dylan Brady '19	Nicholas Del Giudice '19
Eagles	Andrew Fallone '19 [1-6]	Dylan Speicher '19 [1-2] Yuwen Chen '19 [3-6]
Christopher Newport University	Spencer Charney '20 [1-4] Anders Hudson '17 [5-6]	Vir Menon '20 [1-4] Spencer Charney '20 [5-6]
Captains	Ian O'Connell '20 [1-2] Benjamin Kempton '18 [3-6]	Mikaela Farrugia '20 [1-2]
Drexel University	Frederick Piasecki '20	Elizabeth Jarvie '18
Dragons	Haley Clemson '20 [1-6]	Elizabeth Calio '20 [1-2] James Giebel '21 [3-6]
Hampton University	Filip Stevanovic '20 [1-6]	Jadyn Taylor '20 [1-2] Mercedes Matlock '20 [3-4] Khari Parrish '20 [5-6]
Pirates	Dario Abou Rjeili '20 [1] Luca Taglialegne '20 [2-6]	Lance Sharpe '20 [1] Alyssa Seunarine '17 [2-4] Imani Thomas '18 [5-6]
Old Dominion University	Brendon Wilkins '18	Stephen Guglielmo '19
Monarchs	George White '20	Gavin Burkhart '20
Rutgers University	Edgard Sanchez '19 [1-2, 5-6] Michael Molman '20 [3-4]	Jeremy Welsch '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Rutgers	Margaret Morrow '18 [1] Robert Jarrett '17 [2-6]	Declan Mcnamara '20 [1]
SUNY Stony Brook	Jeremy Mccauley '20	Maisy Claudio '18
Seawolves	Peter Sander '17	Samantha Mislinski '19
Stevens Institute of Technology	Matthew Roleke '19 [1-6]	Sean Maggio '20 [1-2] Peter Teague '18 [3-6]
Ducks	Andrew O'Brien '19 [1-6]	Meredith Foor '18 [1-2] Christopher Cowan '20 [3-6]
University of Maryland	Jacob Stoner '19	Madeline Mulligan '20
Terps	Ryan Howard '20	Umd Test '25
University of Virginia	Ian Palmer '19	Connor Segal '20
Wahoos	Katherine Green '19	Marion Hopkinson '20
Virginia Tech	Nathan Gibson '19	Erica Vandeveer '17
Hokies	Nicholas Stamps '20	Katherine Roberts '18

Conditions — 03/18/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 72% · Pressure 1016.5 hPa

Temperature

55°F

↑ 64°F ↓ 44°F

Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.5 kn

avg · max 7.5 kn

Gusts to 17.3 kn

From SW (234°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover94% Sunshine6.7 hrs Humidity72% Pressure1016.5 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 3 kn · N 13 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at William and Mary: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.04

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.04 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at William and Mary by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 10 labelled days at William and Mary, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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