| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | 14–1 |
| 2 |  |
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | 10–5 |
| 3 |  |
Georgetown University | Hoyas | 9–6 |
| 4 |  |
Christopher Newport University | Captains | 6–9 |
| 5 |  |
SUNY Maritime College | Privateers | 4–11 |
| 6 |  |
SUNY Stony Brook | Seawolves | 2–13 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 4,579 team race matches sailed before 2015-03-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 39 of 45 matches (87%) with a log-loss of 0.467 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.41 ± 0.27: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 14% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | SUNY Stony Brook | 3.14 | 4.91 | 2–13 | 0.5 | +1.77 | 2.3 | 7% |
| 2 | Old Dominion University | 7.37 | 7.87 | 10–5 | 8.9 | +0.50 | 0.4 | 35% |
| 1 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 9.23 | 9.59 | 14–1 | 13.6 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 59% |
| 5 | SUNY Maritime College | 5.27 | 5.46 | 4–11 | 3.8 | +0.18 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 3 | Georgetown University | 7.86 | 7.22 | 9–6 | 10.4 | −0.64 | 0.6 | 90% |
| 4 | Christopher Newport University | 6.99 | 6.02 | 6–9 | 7.8 | −0.97 | 1.3 | 96% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Seahawks | Monarchs | Hoyas | Captains | Privateers | Seawolves | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Christopher Newport University Captains | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Seahawks | Monarchs | Hoyas | Captains | Privateers | Seawolves | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 3–2 | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 4–1 | L | W | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Christopher Newport University Captains | 0–5 | L | L | L | ✕ | L | L |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 2–3 | L | L | L | W | ✕ | W |
| SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves | 1–4 | L | L | L | W | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Seahawks | Monarchs | Hoyas | Captains | Privateers | Seawolves | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 4–1 | ✕ | W | W | L | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 3–2 | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 2–3 | L | W | ✕ | L | W | L |
| Christopher Newport University Captains | 4–1 | W | L | W | ✕ | W | W |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves | 1–4 | L | L | W | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Privateers | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seawolves | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Seahawks | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Captains | 2-3-6 |
| 4 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Privateers | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Captains | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seawolves | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hoyas | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Privateers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seawolves | 2-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Monarchs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Captains | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seawolves | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Captains | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seawolves | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 DSQ | def. | |
Captains | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Hoyas | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Seawolves | 2-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Seawolves | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Captains | 1-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Seahawks | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Hoyas | 2-3-6 |
| 23 | |
Privateers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seawolves | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seawolves | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Privateers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Captains | 2-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seawolves | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Privateers | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Hoyas | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Captains | 1-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Captains | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 1-4-6 DNF |
| 34 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-6 |
| 36 | |
Captains | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seawolves | 4-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hoyas | 1-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Privateers | 1-2-3 DSQ | def. | |
Seawolves | 4-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Captains | 3-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seawolves | 4-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-5 |
| 42 | |
Captains | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 2-4-6 |
| 43 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seawolves | 3-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Captains | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hoyas | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | Carolyn Smith '17 Kyle Burgess '17 Patrick Tara '17 |
Elleanor Wells '18 Kira Allen '18 Elizabeth Dennison '17 |
|
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | Andrew Baird '18 Ethan Lounsbury '17 Jeremy Herrin '18 |
Anne Van Der Sangen '18 Molly Sternberg '17 Jocelyn Rovniak '17 |
|
Georgetown University | Hoyas | Clay Broussard '18 Jack Marshall '18 Rose Edwards '18 |
Sara Rogers '18 Carolyn Dahl '18 Maggie Kelly '17 |
|
Christopher Newport University | Captains | Amanda Attardi '17 Anders Hudson '17 Austin Powers '17 Xander Van Beurden '18 |
Hannah Cantolino '18 Nina Heatfield '17 Laura Kilgore '17 |
|
SUNY Maritime College | Privateers | James Keegan '16 John Nothacker '16 Peter Maes '18 |
Jonathan O'Connell '15 Daseul Kim '17 Carly Mayhood '17 |
|
SUNY Stony Brook | Seawolves | Andrew Lithen '18 Constantine Spentzos '17 Vidar Minkovsky '18 |
Spencer Ochs '18 Jessica Kurlander '18 Samantha Zito '18 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
