Webb Regatta

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 78
2 Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 2 91
3 Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 1 126
4 William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 1 138
5 Penn State Behrend Penn State Behrend Lions 164
6 Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 166
7 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 232
8 William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 2 244
9 Salisbury University Salisbury University Seagulls 288
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 2 B 5 1 4 2 2 2 3 2 3 24 Nina Heatfield '17
Kaitlyn Reilly '18
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos A 4 3 3 1 1 1 4 6 2 25 Alexander Singh '19
Dorothy Stump '18
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 1 A 2 4 5 10 8 5 1 4 4 43 Patrick Mazzeo '18
Anna Kugler '19
Penn State Behrend Penn State Behrend Lions A 6 10 7 BKD 3 4 2 1 7 45 Christopher Ruppen '18
Caroline Mashyna '18
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos B 9 2 12 3 12 3 6 5 1 53 Ian Palmer '19
Colleen Roney '18
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 1 A 1 6 6 5 5 7 8 11 8 57 Benjamin Kempton '18
No Show
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 2 A 11 8 2 11 4 8 14 3 6 67 Laura Kilgore '17 [1-5]
Hanna Halleck-Pinkleton '18 [6-9]
Samara Leith '19 [1-5]
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 1 B 3 13 1 4 7 6 16 7 12 69 Matteo Murrelle '19
Christian Denmark '19
Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks A 8 5 9 7 11 14 9 9 9 81 Brogan Savage '15 [1-9]
Kaitlyn Brennan '17 [1-5]
Ryan Hallak '18 [6-9]
Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks B 7 9 10 8 6 17 7 16 5 85 Sydney Seitz '17 [1-9]
Thomas Cahill '18 [1-2]
Giuseppe Licata '17 [3-9]
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 1 B 10 7 16 6 10 10 11 15 10 95 Daniel Powers '18
Tyler Skelton '19
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack A 12 18 11 9 9 16 12 8 16 111 Elijah Jones '18 [1-2]
April Lamb '17 [3-9]
April Lamb '17 [1-2]
Katherine Richardson '19 [3-9]
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 2 B 15 16 15 12 14 9 5 13 14 113 Audrey Fulk '19
Atticus Bolyard '19
Penn State Behrend Penn State Behrend Lions B 18 12 13 15 16 11 13 10 11 119 Eric Malarkey '19
Kenneth Schnall '18
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack B 17 11 17 14 13 12 10 12 15 121 Zack Morey '17
Gwenael Fichou '18
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 2 A 14 17 8 13 15 18 15 14 17 131 Hailey Park '18
Alyssa Deraymond '18
Salisbury University Salisbury University Seagulls A 13 14 14 16 OCS 15 17 17 13 138 Rachel Weitman '16
Molly Deckers '18
Salisbury University Salisbury University Seagulls B 16 15 18 17 17 13 18 18 18 150 Ian Harrison '16
Simon Timmerman '16
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (16 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains 1111111111
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains 2222222222
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Hawks333333333
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack444444444
Penn State BehrendPenn State Behrend Lions555555555
Salisbury UniversitySalisbury University Seagulls666666666
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos777777777
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe 1888888888
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe 2999999999

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains 1101010101010101010
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains 2111111111111111111
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Hawks121212121212121212
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack131313131313131313
Penn State BehrendPenn State Behrend Lions141414141414141414
Salisbury UniversitySalisbury University Seagulls151515151515151515
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos161616161616161616
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe 1171717171717171717
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe 2181818181818181818

Conditions — 11/21/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 1020.6 hPa

Temperature

55°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 47°F
Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.2 kn
avg  ·  max 5.5 kn
Gusts to 12.4 kn
From E (83°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover21% Sunshine9.8 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1020.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 6 kn · N 12 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Christopher Newport: a typical day (−0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.22 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christopher Newport by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (24 labelled days at Christopher Newport).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →