| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Georgetown University | Hoyas 1 | 6–0 |
| 1 | |
Georgetown University | Hoyas 2 | 6–0 |
| 3 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen 2 | 4–2 |
| 4 |  |
Old Dominion University | Monarchs 2 | 3–3 |
| 5 | |
Old Dominion University | Monarchs 1 | 2–4 |
| 6 | |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen 1 | 2–4 |
| 7 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks 1 | 1–8 |
| 8 | |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks 2 | 0–3 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 9,332 team race matches sailed before 2018-02-17, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 5 of 6 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.329 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgetown University Hoyas 2 | 11.92 | 14.92 | 3–0 | 2.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.5 | 71% |
| 3 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 | 9.86 | 11.31 | 2–1 | 1.2 | +1.45 | 0.8 | 33% |
| 7 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 | 10.17 | 9.42 | 1–2 | 1.4 | −0.75 | 0.2 | 89% |
| 5 | Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 | 9.25 | 6.25 | 0–3 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Reiter | Georgetown University | 3.76 | 6.76 | 3–0 | 2.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.5 | 71% |
| Jimmy Madigan | U. S. Naval Academy | 2.97 | 4.43 | 2–1 | 1.2 | +1.45 | 0.8 | 33% |
| Lewis Cooper | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 2.73 | 1.99 | 1–2 | 1.4 | −0.75 | 0.2 | 89% |
| Edmund Cooper | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 3.31 | 2.56 | 1–2 | 1.4 | −0.75 | 0.2 | 89% |
| Jeremy Herrin | Old Dominion University | 3.84 | 0.84 | 0–3 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Georgetown University Hoyas 2 | Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 | 94% | |
| 1 | 2 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 | 44% | upset |
| 1 | 5 | Georgetown University Hoyas 2 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 | 89% | |
| 1 | 6 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 | Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 | 71% | |
| 1 | 9 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 | Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 | 63% | |
| 1 | 10 | Georgetown University Hoyas 2 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 | 85% |
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas 1 | 3–0 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas 2 | 3–0 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 | 2–1 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | L | L | L |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | L | L | L |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 | 2–1 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | ✕ | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 | 1–2 | L | L | L | W | W | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 | 1–2 | L | L | L | W | W | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas 1 | 3–0 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas 2 | 3–0 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 | 2–1 | L | L | W | ✕ | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 | 2–1 | L | L | W | ✕ | ✕ | W | W | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 | 0–3 | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 | 0–3 | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas 1 | 1–0 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas 2 | 1–0 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 | 0–1 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 | 0–1 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 | 1–0 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 | 1–0 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 | 0–1 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 | 0–1 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas 1 | 1–0 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas 2 | 1–0 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 | 0–1 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 | 0–1 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 | 1–0 | ✕ | W | W | ✕ |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 | 0–1 | L | ✕ | ✕ | L |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 | 0–1 | L | ✕ | ✕ | L |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 | 1–0 | ✕ | W | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas 1 | 1–0 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas 2 | 1–0 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 | 0–1 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 | 0–1 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 | 0–1 | ✕ | L | L | ✕ |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 | 1–0 | W | ✕ | ✕ | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 | 1–0 | W | ✕ | ✕ | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 | 0–1 | ✕ | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 | 1–0 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 | 1–0 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 | 0–1 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 | 0–1 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas 1 | 1–0 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas 2 | 1–0 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 | 0–1 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 | 0–1 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas 1 | 1–0 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas 2 | 1–0 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 | 0–1 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 | 0–1 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas 1 | 1–0 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas 2 | 1–0 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 | 0–1 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 | 0–1 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 | 1–0 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 | 1–0 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 | 0–1 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 | 0–1 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 | 1–0 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 | 1–0 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 | 0–1 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 | 0–1 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hoyas 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Monarchs 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Midshipmen 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Hoyas 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Seahawks 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Monarchs 1 | 2-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Midshipmen 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Monarchs 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Hoyas 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks 1 | 2-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Monarchs 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Hoyas 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Midshipmen 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Hoyas 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Midshipmen 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Hoyas 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Monarchs 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Midshipmen 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Hoyas 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen 1 | 2-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Monarchs 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Hoyas 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Seahawks 1 | 2-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Midshipmen 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Monarchs 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Hoyas 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Monarchs 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Midshipmen 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Monarchs 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Seahawks 1 | 2-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Hoyas 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Midshipmen 2 | 4-5-6 DNF,DNF |
| 21 | |
Hoyas 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Hoyas 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Midshipmen 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Midshipmen 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Seahawks 2 | 1-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Georgetown University | Hoyas 2 | Andy Reiter '19 Campbell D'Eliscu '19 Sean Segerblom '20 |
Marley Mais '21 Meaghan Macrae '18 Rebecca Fung '19 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen 2 | Jimmy Madigan '18 Parker Loftus '20 Peter Hogan '18 |
Emma Remis '20 Sarah Barkley '19 Kelly Milliken '21 |
|
Old Dominion University | Monarchs 1 | James Jacob '18 Jeremy Herrin '18 Kyle Mergenthaler '20 |
Emily Harrison '21 Carter Little '18 Abigail Tutt '21 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks 1 | Dane Byerly '20 Edmund Cooper '17 Lewis Cooper '21 |
Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger '19 Kaisey Mccallion '19 Kate Bjerregaard '19 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
