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MAISA Central qualifer

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 53 27 80
2 Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens 54 31 85
3 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 52 46 98
4 Washington College Washington College Shoremen 77 35 112
5 Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 38 76 114
6 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 80 65 145
7 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 118 56 174
8 Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 90 93 183
9 Kean University Kean University Kean 80 123 203
10 Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 124 80 204
11 Columbia University Columbia University Lions 123 103 226
12 Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 124 111 235
13 Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 128 125 253
14 Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 160 108 268
15 Rutgers University Rutgers University Rutgers 179 136 315
16 Eagles Eagles Eagles 155 172 327
17 University of Delaware University of Delaware Delaware 196 161 357
18 University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Maryland/Baltimore 210 150 360
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 3 1 1 6 2 2 7 2 6 4 3 1 38 Ben Buhl '16
Amy Craven '13
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 2 7 11 5 5 1 6 3 1 7 3 52 Nicholas Clemence '15
Morgan Bench '16
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 6 6 3 1 1 6 10 1 4 2 6 7 53 Alex Ramos '15
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens 2 4 2 10 3 1 5 3 1 12 5 6 54 Gerard Tonachel '13
Mackenzie Mcguckin '16
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 8 3 RDG 4 7 10 11 7 9 5 4 4 77 Samuel Bedinger '13
Siobhan Ryan '16
Kean University Kean University Kean 4 15 4 7 6 4 2 8 2 8 11 9 80 Emily Mccarthy '13
Sarah Salter '12
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 7 7 6 8 4 3 8 10 8 3 2 14 80 Michael Russom '13
Meaghan Harding '16
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 10 11 11 3 9 7 6 4 12 6 9 2 90 Samantha Gebb '14
Anthony Pappenfus '13
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 14 5 10 14 BKD 13 13 14 5 9 1 10 118 Adam Keally '15
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 5 14 13 16 12 14 9 5 7 7 8 13 123 Conor Cashel '14
Nicolas Leeper '14
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 9 8 12 5 13 8 14 13 10 11 10 11 124 Joan Boyle '14
Tracy Venella '16
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 13 12 5 2 11 17 4 15 11 13 13 8 124 Zachary Schippe '14
Kristina Severino '14
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 12 9 18 9 10 9 12 9 13 10 12 5 128 John Shanahan '16
Charles Herlihy '14
Eagles Eagles Eagles 11 13 14 13 8 11 15 12 15 14 14 15 155
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 16 16 9 17 14 16 3 11 16 15 15 12 160 Trevor Vonkaenel '13
Rutgers University Rutgers University Rutgers 15 10 15 15 16 12 16 16 14 16 16 18 179 Laine Meelheim '13
Nicholas Salandra '14
University of Delaware University of Delaware Delaware 18 17 17 12 15 15 17 17 17 17 18 16 196 Caitlin Mcewen '14 [1-10]
Joseph Alalou '13 [11-12]
Chelsea Regan '15 [1-8]
Derek Frisicchio '16 [9-10]
Hannah Patry '16 [11-12]
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Maryland/Baltimore 17 18 16 18 17 18 18 18 18 18 17 17 210 Adam Rybczynski '14
Thomas Carman '15
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 5 3 1 6 3 3 2 1 1 27 George Prieto '13
Sarah Blake '15
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens 1 1 4 3 4 4 5 1 4 4 31 Christian Geary '14
Lara Paul '15
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 6 2 2 4 5 5 2 4 3 2 35 Eric Siegel '16
Thomas Heist '15
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 7 10 1 2 1 1 4 3 5 12 46 Marissa Golison '16
Allison Smith '13
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 5 4 8 7 7 BKD 9 5 2 3 56 Connor Godfrey '16
Jennifer Irwin '15
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 4 7 7 5 9 2 8 6 7 10 65 Christina Johns '13
Jose -Maria Barrero '13
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 3 3 16 8 2 7 11 9 9 8 76 Annie Eckmann '14
Paul Sutherland '14
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 10 6 5 6 11 10 6 11 6 9 80 Chris Myers '15
Robert Stricek '15
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 9 8 6 9 8 12 10 12 8 11 93 Andrew Werner '14
Ashley Barclift '14
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 12 9 11 11 3 9 15 8 12 13 103 John Koehler '13
Michelle Edelstein '13
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 13 15 9 12 15 6 1 10 10 17 108 Sarah Celone '13
William Joumas '15
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 14 14 10 10 13 13 7 14 11 5 111 Hannah Saunders '15
Danielle Wittman '13
Kean University Kean University Kean 15 16 12 17 10 11 16 7 13 6 123 Emily Mccarthy '13
Sarah Salter '12
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 17 11 13 14 12 8 13 16 14 7 125
Rutgers University Rutgers University Rutgers 8 12 14 13 17 14 14 13 15 16 136 Jonathan Scheaffer '14
Jonathan Sparrow-Hood '14
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Maryland/Baltimore 16 13 15 16 16 16 12 15 16 15 150 James Rush '14
Justin Plott '13
University of Delaware University of Delaware Delaware 18 17 17 15 14 15 17 17 17 14 161 Alison Sobeck '13
Chelsea Wright '15
Eagles Eagles Eagles 11 18 18 18 18 17 18 18 18 18 172
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.190+0.19
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2011 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
EaglesEagles Eagles112233445566
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains22111818171716161515
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions334455667788
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware Delaware4433221118181717
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons55667788991010
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams665544332211
Kean UniversityKean University Kean778899101011111212
University of Maryland/Baltimore CountyUniversity of Maryland/Baltimore County Maryland/Baltimore887766554433
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen9910101111121213131414
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings10109988776655
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions121211111010998877
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers161615151414131312121111
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers111112121313141415151616
Rutgers UniversityRutgers University Rutgers131314141515161617171818
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks1414131312121111101099
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Stevens15151616171718181122
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats1717181811223344
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen181817171616151514141313

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
EaglesEagles Eagles1122334455
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains2211181817171616
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions3344556677
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware Delaware443322111818
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons5566778899
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams6655443322
Kean UniversityKean University Kean77889910101111
University of Maryland/Baltimore CountyUniversity of Maryland/Baltimore County Maryland/Baltimore8877665544
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen991010111112121313
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings101099887766
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions1212111110109988
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers16161515141413131212
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers11111212131314141515
Rutgers UniversityRutgers University Rutgers13131414151516161717
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks14141313121211111010
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Stevens151516161717181811
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats17171818112233
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen18181717161615151414
School / Team SkipperCrew
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Ben Buhl '16 Amy Craven '13
Captains Annie Eckmann '14 Paul Sutherland '14
Columbia University Columbia University Conor Cashel '14 Nicolas Leeper '14
Lions John Koehler '13 Michelle Edelstein '13
Drexel University Drexel University Joan Boyle '14 Tracy Venella '16
Dragons Chris Myers '15 Robert Stricek '15
Fordham University Fordham University Adam Keally '15
Rams Connor Godfrey '16 Jennifer Irwin '15
Kean University Kean University Emily Mccarthy '13 Sarah Salter '12
Kean Emily Mccarthy '13 Sarah Salter '12
Ocean County College Ocean County College Zachary Schippe '14 Kristina Severino '14
Vikings Hannah Saunders '15 Danielle Wittman '13
Penn State University Penn State University John Shanahan '16 Charles Herlihy '14
Nittany Lions
Princeton University Princeton University Samantha Gebb '14 Anthony Pappenfus '13
Tigers Andrew Werner '14 Ashley Barclift '14
Rutgers University Rutgers University Laine Meelheim '13 Nicholas Salandra '14
Rutgers Jonathan Scheaffer '14 Jonathan Sparrow-Hood '14
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Nicholas Clemence '15 Morgan Bench '16
Seahawks Marissa Golison '16 Allison Smith '13
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Gerard Tonachel '13 Mackenzie Mcguckin '16
Stevens Christian Geary '14 Lara Paul '15
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Alex Ramos '15
Midshipmen George Prieto '13 Sarah Blake '15
University of Delaware University of Delaware Caitlin Mcewen '14 [1-10]
Joseph Alalou '13 [11-12]		 Chelsea Regan '15 [1-8]
Derek Frisicchio '16 [9-10]
Hannah Patry '16 [11-12]
Delaware Alison Sobeck '13 Chelsea Wright '15
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Adam Rybczynski '14 Thomas Carman '15
Maryland/Baltimore James Rush '14 Justin Plott '13
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Michael Russom '13 Meaghan Harding '16
Quakers Christina Johns '13 Jose -Maria Barrero '13
Villanova University Villanova University Trevor Vonkaenel '13
Wildcats Sarah Celone '13 William Joumas '15
Washington College Washington College Samuel Bedinger '13 Siobhan Ryan '16
Shoremen Eric Siegel '16 Thomas Heist '15

Conditions — 09/15/2012 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 51%  ·  Pressure 1019.6 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.4 kn
avg  ·  max 10.5 kn
Gusts to 20.6 kn
From NNW (332°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover5% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1019.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 11 kn · W 8 kn* · SW 6 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Ocean County: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.13)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.09
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.28 ± 0.07)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Ocean County by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled days at Ocean County).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →