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MAISA Central qualifer — Analysis

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* This regatta is not official yet. Ratings marked * are from the last weekly update and have not absorbed this event; the performance columns use the results posted so far, and everything refreshes as scoring is finalised.

Performance rating answers one question for each skipper: holding every other skipper's rating fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? It is the maximum-likelihood rating under the same Plackett–Luce model that produces the power rankings (how accurate it is), with each opponent fixed at their rating from the last rated week before this event (2012-W37). Substitute skippers are scored only on the races they sailed, and races the boat did not finish (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out.

Percentile places a rating among the 1,523 ICSA skippers who were rated within the year before this event, so it reads as “better than X% of the skippers racing in this league right now”. The arrow shows where the sailor stood going in and where this performance would put them.

Surprise is how many bits more surprising the sailor's finishes were at their pre-event rating than at their performance rating (0 = exactly as expected). P(this good or better) simulates the regatta 3,000 times with the sailor at their pre-event rating against the actual fleet, and reports how often they would score this many points or fewer in the races they skippered. Races in one regatta are not independent, so each simulation also gives every skipper a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of each boat the rotation puts them in (why). Low means an unusually good regatta, high means an unusually poor one. It deliberately ignores how rivals actually sailed, so it agrees with the performance rating rather than with the division finish, which also depends on everyone else's day. Ratings are shown on the rankings scale (model rating × 100). Only skippers are rated; crews are not part of the model.

  • n no rating before this event — the model's estimate from this week is used as the baseline.

Division A  18 boats · 12 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Ben Buhl '16 Christopher Newport University 12/12 252* 368 +116 82nd → 98th 6.6 5% 3.2 / 6.2 254*
2 Nicholas Clemence '15 St. Mary's College of Maryland 12/12 293* 292 -1 90th → 90th 0.0 36% 4.3 / 5.0 294*
3 Alex Ramos '15 U. S. Naval Academy 12/12 335* 292 -43 95th → 90th 1.3 63% 4.4 / 4.2 333*
4 Gerard Tonachel '13 Stevens Institute of Technology 12/12 246* 288 +41 81st → 89th 1.0 13% 4.5 / 6.3 247*
5 Emily Mccarthy '13 Kean University 12/12 -89* 219 +308 8th → 76th 33.7 <1% 6.7 / 14.9 -59*
5 Michael Russom '13 University of Pennsylvania 12/12 242* 221 -21 80th → 77th 0.3 60% 6.7 / 6.4 241*
7 Samantha Gebb '14 Princeton University 12/12 165* 201 +36 66th → 73rd 0.9 30% 7.5 / 8.5 166*
8 Samuel Bedinger '13 Washington College 12/12 216* 240 +24 76th → 80th 0.3 63% 7.6 / 7.1 217*
9 Conor Cashel '14 Columbia University 12/12 129* 123 -7 59th → 57th 0.0 64% 10.2 / 9.6 155*
10 Joan Boyle '14 Drexel University 12/12 89* 145 +56 49th → 61st 1.9 42% 10.3 / 10.7 118*
10 Zachary Schippe '14 Ocean County College 12/12 150* 96 -53 63rd → 50th 2.1 77% 10.3 / 8.9 150*
12 Adam Keally '15 Fordham University 12/12 173* 136 -37 67th → 60th 1.0 83% 10.6 / 8.4 173*
13 John Shanahan '16 Penn State University 12/12 112n* 108 -4 54th → 53rd 0.0 58% 10.7 / 9.9 112*
15 Trevor Vonkaenel '13 Villanova University 12/12 33* 20 -12 35th → 32nd 0.1 69% 13.3 / 12.2 26*
16 Laine Meelheim '13 Rutgers University 12/12 -23* -17 +6 20th → 22nd 0.0 74% 14.9 / 13.6 -21*
17 Caitlin Mcewen '14 University of Delaware 10/12 -98* -70 +29 7th → 11th 0.4 74% 16.2 / 15.0 -91*
17 Joseph Alalou '13 University of Delaware 2/12 -119* -153 -34 5th → 2nd 0.1 74% 17.0 / 15.4 -119*
18 Adam Rybczynski '14 University of Maryland/Baltimore County 12/12 -95* -214 -119 7th → 1st 4.7 99% 17.5 / 15.0 -94*

Division B  18 boats · 10 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 George Prieto '13 U. S. Naval Academy 10/10 268* 325 +57 85th → 94th 1.4 9% 2.7 / 4.3 280*
2 Christian Geary '14 Stevens Institute of Technology 10/10 205* 307 +102 74th → 92nd 4.3 4% 3.1 / 5.8 206*
3 Eric Siegel '16 Washington College 10/10 193* 287 +94 71st → 89th 3.8 9% 3.5 / 6.2 193*
4 Marissa Golison '16 St. Mary's College of Maryland 10/10 217* 198 -19 76th → 73rd 0.2 35% 4.6 / 5.6 218*
5 Christina Johns '13 University of Pennsylvania 10/10 149* 177 +29 62nd → 68th 0.5 37% 6.5 / 7.3 168*
6 Connor Godfrey '16 Fordham University 10/10 253n* 188 -65 82nd → 71st 2.5 75% 6.9 / 5.2 253*
7 Annie Eckmann '14 Christopher Newport University 10/10 103* 105 +3 52nd → 53rd 0.0 35% 7.6 / 8.6 103*
8 Chris Myers '15 Drexel University 10/10 33* 126 +93 35th → 57th 4.1 16% 8.0 / 10.4 92*
9 Andrew Werner '14 Princeton University 10/10 -9* 100 +109 24th → 51st 5.5 16% 9.3 / 11.6 12*
10 John Koehler '13 Columbia University 10/10 28* 62 +34 33rd → 42nd 0.6 44% 10.3 / 10.6 43*
11 Sarah Celone '13 Villanova University 10/10 78* 24 -54 46th → 32nd 1.9 79% 10.8 / 9.3 72*
12 Hannah Saunders '15 Ocean County College 10/10 10n* 38 +28 28th → 36th 0.4 48% 11.1 / 11.0 10*
13 Emily Mccarthy '13 Kean University 10/10 -89* 6 +95 8th → 28th 4.4 26% 12.3 / 13.6 -59*
15 Jonathan Scheaffer '14 Rutgers University 10/10 -81n* -5 +75 10th → 25th 2.9 53% 13.6 / 13.0 -81*
16 James Rush '14 University of Maryland/Baltimore County 10/10 -112n* -34 +78 5th → 19th 3.1 62% 15.0 / 13.9 -112*
17 Alison Sobeck '13 University of Delaware 10/10 -161n* -67 +95 1st → 12th 4.0 65% 16.1 / 14.8 -161*

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →