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WAC Open/Central Fall #2

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens 27 28 55
2 Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 44 37 81
3 Monmouth University Monmouth University Monmouth 53 32 85
4 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 28 72 100
5 Washington College Washington College Shoremen 39 65 104
6 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 51 56 107
7 Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 67 47 114
8 Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport 67 68 135
9 Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 90 85 175
10 Rutgers University Rutgers University Rutgers 91 102 193
11 Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 104 103 207
12 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 115 107 222
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens 3 6 1 3 1 3 6 1 1 2 27 Gerard Tonachel '13
Anne Ryan '14
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 3 4 1 3 1 1 BKD 2 9 28 Nicholas Clemence '15
Marina Carlson '12
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 4 1 3 5 5 6 3 2 3 7 39 Samuel Bedinger '13 [1-10]
Paul Miller '14 [1-4]
Mackenzie Needham '15 [5-10]
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 5 4 2 4 2 2 7 4 6 8 44 Samantha Gebb '14
Andrew Werner '14
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen DNS 2 6 2 7 4 2 5 5 5 51 Connor Timmins '14 [1-10]
Connor Hendi '15 [1, 3-10]
Erica Leinmiller '13 [2]
Monmouth University Monmouth University Monmouth 2 5 5 6 8 5 5 6 8 3 53 Paul Luisi '11
Rachel Armstrong '14
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 6 9 11 8 4 8 4 7 4 6 67 Joan Boyle '14
Clara Engel '13
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport 8 7 DNF 7 6 7 8 3 7 1 67 Victoria Miller '13
Annie Eckmann '14
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 7 8 7 9 10 10 11 8 10 10 90 Autumn Hoover '12 [1-10]
Kristina Severino '14 [1-2, 5-10]
Kyle Johnstone '13 [3-4]
Rutgers University Rutgers University Rutgers 9 11 9 10 9 9 10 9 11 4 91 Tim Gorzelnik '14
Michelle Miltenberger '12
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 10 10 8 11 11 11 12 11 9 11 104 Charles Herlihy '14
John Kramer '15
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers DNF DNS 10 12 12 12 9 10 12 12 115 Tory Stires '14
Christine Bowman '14
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens 4 7 3 2 1 1 2 1 6 1 28 Christian Geary '14
Lara Paul '15
Monmouth University Monmouth University Monmouth 1 3 1 1 7 3 3 2 5 6 32 Paul Stevens '14
Shawn Diamond '13
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 2 4 2 BKD 2 2 1 5 7 8 37 John Marzulli '12
Thomas Senecal '14
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 3 2 5 3 6 6 7 4 2 9 47 Jason Sinclair '13
Robert Stricek '15
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 5 5 6 8 4 5 5 7 8 3 56 Emma Ferris '15
Erica Leinmiller '13
Washington College Washington College Shoremen DNF 1 4 4 DNF 7 8 6 4 5 65 Brogan Savage '15 [1, 5-10]
Eleanor Conroy '15 [2-4]
Eleanor Towerse '11 [1-4]
Erin Mcauliffe '14 [5-10]
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport 6 6 DNF DNF 5 4 4 10 3 4 68 Mary Buhl '14
Grace Bluefeld '15
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 7 DNF 7 7 DNS DNS 6 3 1 2 72 Thad Bench '15 [1-6]
Allison Shane '15 [7-10]
Allison Shane '15 [1-6]
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings DNF 9 8 5 3 8 11 8 10 10 85 Kyle Donnelly '14 [1-10]
Anthony Favo '13 [1, 3-10]
Kristina Severino '14 [2]
Rutgers University Rutgers University Rutgers DNS 8 9 6 10 11 12 9 12 12 102 Kathrine Bianchini '12 [1-4]
Welf Ludwig '12 [5-10]
Dara Zaleski '12 [1-4]
Nicholas Salandra '14 [5-10]
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions DNS 10 10 9 9 9 9 12 11 11 103 Eliza Crawford '14
Christian John '14
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers DNS DNS DNS DNF 8 10 10 11 9 7 107 Matthias Chia '15
Elizabeth Hayt '13
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Christopher Newport1133557799
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons224466881010
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Monmouth335577991111
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen44668810101212
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings557799111111
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions779911111133
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers111111335577
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers66881010121222
Rutgers UniversityRutgers University Rutgers88101012122244
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks991111113355
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Stevens10101212224466
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen121222446688

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Christopher Newport224466881010
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons335577991111
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Monmouth44668810101212
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen557799111111
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings66881010121222
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions88101012122244
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers121222446688
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers779911111133
Rutgers UniversityRutgers University Rutgers991111113355
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks10101212224466
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Stevens111111335577
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen1133557799
School / Team SkipperCrew
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Victoria Miller '13 Annie Eckmann '14
Christopher Newport Mary Buhl '14 Grace Bluefeld '15
Drexel University Drexel University Joan Boyle '14 Clara Engel '13
Dragons Jason Sinclair '13 Robert Stricek '15
Monmouth University Monmouth University Paul Luisi '11 Rachel Armstrong '14
Monmouth Paul Stevens '14 Shawn Diamond '13
Ocean County College Ocean County College Autumn Hoover '12 [1-10] Kristina Severino '14 [1-2, 5-10]
Kyle Johnstone '13 [3-4]
Vikings Kyle Donnelly '14 [1-10] Anthony Favo '13 [1, 3-10]
Kristina Severino '14 [2]
Penn State University Penn State University Charles Herlihy '14 John Kramer '15
Nittany Lions Eliza Crawford '14 Christian John '14
Princeton University Princeton University Samantha Gebb '14 Andrew Werner '14
Tigers John Marzulli '12 Thomas Senecal '14
Rutgers University Rutgers University Tim Gorzelnik '14 Michelle Miltenberger '12
Rutgers Kathrine Bianchini '12 [1-4]
Welf Ludwig '12 [5-10]		 Dara Zaleski '12 [1-4]
Nicholas Salandra '14 [5-10]
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Nicholas Clemence '15 Marina Carlson '12
Seahawks Thad Bench '15 [1-6]
Allison Shane '15 [7-10]		 Allison Shane '15 [1-6]
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Gerard Tonachel '13 Anne Ryan '14
Stevens Christian Geary '14 Lara Paul '15
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Connor Timmins '14 [1-10] Connor Hendi '15 [1, 3-10]
Erica Leinmiller '13 [2]
Midshipmen Emma Ferris '15 Erica Leinmiller '13
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Tory Stires '14 Christine Bowman '14
Quakers Matthias Chia '15 Elizabeth Hayt '13
Washington College Washington College Samuel Bedinger '13 [1-10] Paul Miller '14 [1-4]
Mackenzie Needham '15 [5-10]
Shoremen Brogan Savage '15 [1, 5-10]
Eleanor Conroy '15 [2-4]		 Eleanor Towerse '11 [1-4]
Erin Mcauliffe '14 [5-10]

Conditions — 10/15/2011 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 46%  ·  Pressure 1006.6 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
14.2 kn
avg  ·  max 17.2 kn
Gusts to 32.3 kn
From WSW (237°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover5% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity46% Pressure1006.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 17 kn · SW 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Washington College: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.11 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Washington College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled days at Washington College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →