Hobart and William Smith Colleges '14
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.65 (fleet 3.66) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 42–22 (66%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 9–1 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 4 | 33–21 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (37 matches) the record is 24–13 against 23.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-03-01 | Georgetown Team Race | skipper | 3.66 | 4.39 | 9–1 | 8.2 | +0.74 | 0.4 | 42% |
| 2013-05-25 | APS Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.41 | 3.54 | 6–7 | 5.8 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 2013-04-06 | Captain Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.46 | 3.11 | 9–5 | 9.9 | −0.35 | 0.2 | 82% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Georgetown Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 90% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.1 | 3.64 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 9.5 | 3.37 |
| North Fall #1 | Skipper | A | 13 | 2.8 | 3.85 |
| Jesuit Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.6 | 4.34 |
| HWS Fall Intersectional | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.7 | 3.60 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.6 | 4.04 |
| Atlantic Coast Championships | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.8 | 3.76 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 4 | 12.5 | 2.52 |
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| Gill Coed Championships | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.2 | 3.15 |
| Captain Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 17 | 53% | — |
| APS Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 13 | 46% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.3 | 4.63 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 89% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 15 | 8.5 | 2.55 |
| College Sailing Western Semifinal | Skipper | B | 13 | 5.7 | 3.85 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 18 | 7.1 | 3.05 |
| North Fall # 1 | Skipper | B | 13 | 2.8 | 3.52 |
| Nevin's Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 7.8 | 3.33 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.8 | 2.92 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.2 | 4.59 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 19 | 12.2 | 2.76 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.2 | 3.13 |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.1 | 2.97 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.0 | 2.85 |
| Big Apple Classic/Jesuit Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.0 | 2.69 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA Spring Open | Skipper | B | 3 | 1.7 | 3.81 |
| Greater New York Dinghy | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.0 | 2.95 |
| 82nd Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | C | 18 | 9.1 | 2.48 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| South #1/ Senators Cup | Skipper | B | 16 | 3.5 | 2.99 |
| HWS Intersectional | Skipper | B | 13 | 4.8 | 2.89 |
| Cornell Fall Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 2.2 | 3.38 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
