Hampton University '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.78 (fleet 2.46) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 7–19 (27%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 5–16 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 2–3 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (26 matches) the record is 7–19 against 7.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-04 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 2.48 | 2.54 | 2–5 | 1.9 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2015-03-28 | MAISA/SAISA Team Race | skipper | 2.45 | 1.90 | 3–11 | 4.0 | −0.55 | 0.4 | 86% |
| 2014-02-22 | Pirates 3 on 3 | skipper | 2.46 | 3.05 | 2–3 | 1.4 | +0.59 | 0.2 | 44% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| William & Mary Spring Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.0 | 2.21 |
| MAISA/SAISA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 13 | 23% | — |
| MAISA Women's Dinghy Championships Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.9 | 2.06 |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 7 | 29% | — |
| America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs | Crew | B | 6 | 11.8 | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Webb Regatta | Skipper | A | 12 | 2.2 | 3.37 |
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.0 | 3.37 |
| MAISA South Dinghy Fall Qualifier | Skipper | A | 15 | 5.2 | 3.07 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 7 | 8.7 | 2.34 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Pirates 3 on 3 | Skipper | TR | 5 | 40% | — |
| ODU Spring Open | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.6 | 2.62 |
| MAISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.6 | 2.22 |
| MAISA/SAISA | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.3 | 1.75 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 14.1 | 1.79 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Webb Regatta | Skipper | A | 14 | 1.9 | 2.12 |
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 9 | 12.6 | 2.15 |
| South #1 Dinghy Qualifier | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.7 | 2.53 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.1 | 2.22 |
| Edward Teach Memorial | Skipper | A | 12 | 1.8 | 2.30 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
