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William & Mary Spring Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Hampton University Hampton University Pirates 24 31 55
2 Columbia University Columbia University Lions 40 16 56
3 William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 22 36 58
4 University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 50 24 74
5 University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Bulls 41 40 81
6 Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 40 54 94
7 University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers 53 63 116
8 Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 61 62 123
9 University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 63 72 135
10 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 75 60 135
11 Catholic University of America Catholic University of America The Catholic U Ameri 63 104 167
12 American University American University Eagles 93 75 168
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 2 3 1 1 2 6 3 4 22 Adam Siegel '15
Ella Cahill '15
Hampton University Hampton University Pirates 3 4 3 6 1 1 4 2 24 Veronica Maccari '17
Kitija Megne '15
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 1 9 6 2 6 4 7 5 40 Adam Devita '18
Michael Fagundo '18
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 7 8 8 7 4 2 1 3 40 Julian Fraize '18 [1-8]
Eric Cherin '15 [1-4, 7-8]
Mariana Bomfim '18 [5-6]
University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Bulls 5 2 4 4 7 3 10 6 41 Dante Iozzo '16
Megan Eubank '17
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 9 10 2 5 3 7 DSQ 1 50 Casey Firth '15
Dorothy Stump '18
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers 4 7 5 11 8 5 5 8 53 Samuel Haksteen '17 [1-2, 4-8]
David Udwin '17 [3]
Ahmed Warshanna '18 [1-2, 4-8]
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 6 5 11 9 11 10 2 7 61 Jeffrey Proko '18
Elizabeth Jarvie '18
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America The Catholic U Ameri 8 6 9 3 9 8 11 9 63 Sarah Seski '15
Sam Mortin '16
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 10 1 7 8 10 11 6 10 63 Zachary Thomas '18
Theo Leasca '18
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 11 11 10 10 5 9 8 11 75 George Uehling '15
Ashley Black '17
American University American University Eagles 12 12 12 12 12 12 9 12 93 Alexina Beckley '17
Jacob Wanner '15
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 5 1 1 4 1 1 2 1 16 Paolo Bertolotti '16
Loren Myers '16
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 3 3 5 3 2 2 4 2 24 Colleen Roney '18 [1-4]
Julia Gowell '18 [5-8]
Julia Gowell '18 [1-4]
Colleen Roney '18 [5-8]
Hampton University Hampton University Pirates 1 4 2 2 DSQ 5 1 3 31 Maximilian Kuester '18 [1-8]
Joshua Williams '16 [1-4]
Miles Braden '17 [5-8]
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 2 2 3 1 DSQ 6 3 6 36 Scott Guinn '15
Kaitlynn Menoche '15
University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Bulls 4 5 4 8 4 3 8 4 40 Cem Ayanoglu '15
Peter Smith '16
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 7 6 10 5 3 10 5 8 54 Peter Teague '18
Meredith Foor '18
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 10 10 6 7 5 9 6 7 60 Kris Rodriguez '15
Katherine Roberts '18
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 8 8 9 10 9 4 9 5 62 Robert Stricek '15
Summer Retif '18
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers 6 7 7 11 8 8 7 9 63 Nathan Thompson '17 [1]
Joseph Collins '18 [2-8]
Nathan Thompson '17 [1]
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 11 11 11 6 6 7 10 10 72 Derek Thompson '18
Sydney Robinson '18
American University American University Eagles 9 9 8 9 7 11 11 11 75 Alexander Wade '18
Olivia Liebnick '16
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America The Catholic U Ameri DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 104 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles11223344
University of BuffaloUniversity of Buffalo Bulls7788991010
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America The Catholic U Ameri66778899
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions22334455
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons33445566
Hampton UniversityHampton University Pirates44556677
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps889910101111
University of Maryland/Baltimore CountyUniversity of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers99101011111212
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Ducks55667788
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos10101111121211
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies111112121122
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe1212112233

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles11223344
University of BuffaloUniversity of Buffalo Bulls7788991010
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America The Catholic U Ameri66778899
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions22334455
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons33445566
Hampton UniversityHampton University Pirates44556677
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps889910101111
University of Maryland/Baltimore CountyUniversity of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers99101011111212
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Ducks55667788
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos10101111121211
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies111112121122
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe1212112233

Conditions — 03/21/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 67%  ·  Pressure 1018.9 hPa

Temperature

50°F
↑ 59°F   ↓ 36°F
Feels like 47°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.3 kn
avg  ·  max 5.6 kn
Gusts to 12.1 kn
From W (274°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover50% Sunshine10.4 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1018.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 7 kn · NE 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at William and Mary: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.11)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.10 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 10% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at William and Mary by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 10 labelled days at William and Mary, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →