Carl Van Duyne MAISA Men's Singles

HostNavy
Date10/11/2014
TypeConference Championship
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Georgetown University	Nevin Snow '16	60
2	George Washington University	Brendan Shanahan '17	77
3	U. S. Naval Academy	Addison Hackstaff '18	96
4	Fordham University	Will Holz '17	99
5	Georgetown University	Greg Martinez '18	106
6	U. S. Naval Academy	Gary Prieto '18	112
7	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Markus Edegran '16	118
8	Georgetown University	Jack Marshall '18	119
9	SUNY Maritime College	Nick Valente '16	123
10	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Austin Neuman '16	123
11	SUNY Maritime College	Zachary Hill '18	140
12	Georgetown University	Clay Broussard '18	148
13	University of Pennsylvania	Keen Butcher '18	148
14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Connor Swikart '18	154
15	Old Dominion University	Jeremy Herrin '18	157
16	U. S. Naval Academy	Philip Youngberg '15	165
17	U. S. Naval Academy	Peter Hogan '18	179
18	Queen's University	John Machum '17	266

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT
Georgetown University	Nevin Snow '16	1	4	8	4	6	3	1	2	6	5	6	2	6	6	60
George Washington University	Brendan Shanahan '17	9	17	1	1	4	1	2	3	5	7	4	9	4	10	77
U. S. Naval Academy	Addison Hackstaff '18	2	11	3	7	1	5	14	9	8	4	8	6	1	17	96
Fordham University	Will Holz '17	7	3	12	6	7	10	13	4	12	13	2	4	2	4	99
Georgetown University	Greg Martinez '18	5	13	17	9	5	12	9	11	2	1	1	BKD	14	3	106
U. S. Naval Academy	Gary Prieto '18	10	7	7	2	8	2	10	13	1	12	9	14	5	12	112
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Markus Edegran '16	14	10	2	13	13	4	8	8	4	3	10	3	15	11	118
Georgetown University	Jack Marshall '18	12	1	9	15	2	9	4	14	11	9	7	13	8	5	119
SUNY Maritime College	Nick Valente '16	4	9	14	12	12	7	5	1	13	8	15	10	12	1	123
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Austin Neuman '16	11	5	6	3	15	16	6	16	10	10	3	1	7	14	123
SUNY Maritime College	Zachary Hill '18	6	12	15	8	16	6	7	17	15	6	14	8	3	7	140
Georgetown University	Clay Broussard '18	8	BKD	10	14	11	14	3	10	7	14	17	7	13	9	148
University of Pennsylvania	Keen Butcher '18	15	6	5	17	9	17	15	6	9	2	12	11	9	15	148
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Connor Swikart '18	16	2	4	5	17	8	16	15	16	15	5	5	17	13	154
Old Dominion University	Jeremy Herrin '18	3	8	16	11	10	13	17	12	3	17	13	16	10	8	157
U. S. Naval Academy	Philip Youngberg '15	13	14	11	10	3	15	12	7	14	11	11	12	16	16	165
U. S. Naval Academy	Peter Hogan '18	17	15	13	16	14	11	11	5	17	16	16	15	11	2	179
Queen's University	John Machum '17	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	266

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 18 boats · 14 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Nevin Snow '16	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	14/14	3.93	4.25	+0.32	95th → 98th	0.5	22%	4.3 / 5.7
2	Brendan Shanahan '17	George Washington University	14/14	2.71	3.52	+0.81	72nd → 91st	2.7	5%	5.5 / 8.8
3	Addison Hackstaff '18	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	14/14	2.74	3.03	+0.29	73rd → 83rd	0.4	25%	6.9 / 8.8
4	Will Holz '17	Fordham University	14/14	2.39	3.22	+0.83	61st → 85th	3.2	11%	7.1 / 9.8
5	Gary Prieto '18	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	14/14	2.53	2.93	+0.40	66th → 79th	0.8	27%	8.0 / 9.4
6	Markus Edegran '16	St. Mary's College of Maryland	14/14	2.70	2.80	+0.10	72nd → 76th	0.1	42%	8.4 / 8.9
7	Jack Marshall '18	Georgetown University Hoyas 3	14/14	2.78	2.77	−0.01	75th → 74th	0.0	48%	8.5 / 8.6
8	Greg Martinez '18	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	14/14	3.06	2.70	−0.37	83rd → 72nd	0.7	66%	8.6 / 7.9
9	Austin Neuman '16	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	14/14	2.00	2.59	+0.59	52nd → 68th	1.7	17%	8.8 / 10.9
9	Nick Valente '16	SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1	14/14	2.76	2.72	−0.04	74th → 72nd	0.0	53%	8.8 / 8.7
11	Zachary Hill '18	SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2	14/14	2.68	2.18	−0.49	71st → 57th	1.3	65%	10.0 / 9.1
12	Keen Butcher '18	University of Pennsylvania	14/14	2.34	1.98	−0.36	60th → 51st	0.6	62%	10.6 / 9.9
13	Connor Swikart '18	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	14/14	1.85	1.73	−0.11	46th → 43rd	0.1	44%	11.0 / 11.3
14	Clay Broussard '18	Georgetown University Hoyas 4	14/14	2.13	2.29	+0.16	56th → 59th	0.1	63%	11.1 / 10.5
15	Jeremy Herrin '18	Old Dominion University	14/14	2.03	1.77	−0.27	53rd → 43rd	0.3	57%	11.2 / 10.7
16	Philip Youngberg '15	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 4	14/14	2.51	2.06	−0.45	64th → 53rd	1.2	87%	11.8 / 9.4
17	Peter Hogan '18	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3	14/14	2.10	1.44	−0.66	55th → 35th	2.3	85%	12.8 / 10.6
18	John Machum '17	Queen's University	14/14	1.45	—	—	36th → —	0.0	>99%	19.0 / 12.1

Conditions — 10/11/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 88% · Pressure 1017.9 hPa

Temperature

56°F

↑ 57°F ↓ 54°F

Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.9 kn

avg · max 9.0 kn

Gusts to 17.7 kn

From NNE (15°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine0.5 hrs Humidity88% Pressure1017.9 hPa Rain0.33 in

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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