Jeremy A. Pinkerton Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 13 15 28
2 University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 40 44 84
3 William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 35 52 87
4 Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 2 54 44 98
5 Loyola University Maryland Loyola University Maryland Greyhounds 70 39 109
6 Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 1 47 68 115
7 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 95 87 182
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 13 James Morgan '18
Bartholomew Winn '21
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 2 5 5 3 2 3 4 1 2 2 4 2 35 Connor Chapin '20 [1-6, 9-12]
Charles Neff '20 [7-8]
Charles Neff '20 [1-6, 9-12]
Connor Chapin '20 [7-8]
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 5 2 2 4 3 2 2 3 5 3 3 6 40 Derek Safieh '21 [1-8]
Madeline Mulligan '20 [9-12]
Linnea Warburton '20 [1-8]
Amanda Kushner '21 [9-12]
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 1 3 6 4 2 5 4 3 4 3 DNF 2 3 47 Frederick Piasecki '20
James Lewis '18
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 2 4 4 3 6 4 5 6 5 4 4 5 4 54 Alison Reed '21 [1-6, 9-12]
Elizabeth Jarvie '18 [7-8]
Elizabeth Jarvie '18 [1-4, 9-12]
Jamie Szul '21 [5-8]
Loyola University Maryland Loyola University Maryland Greyhounds 6 3 6 5 6 6 5 6 DNF DNF 6 5 70 Elizabeth Loughan '21 [1-12]
Whitney Kopp '21 [1-4]
Ann Bell '20 [5-8]
William Clark '21 [9-12]
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies DNF DNF DNF DNF DNF 7 DNF DNF DNS DNS DNS DNS 95 Britt Osborne '21
Shannon Brassil '20
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 15 Sean Linden '21
Alyson Wade '21
Loyola University Maryland Loyola University Maryland Greyhounds 6 4 2 3 6 2 1 5 2 2 2 4 39 Brendan O’Connor '21 [1-2, 9-12]
Ava Haag '21 [3-8]
Ximena Mendez '20 [1-2, 9-12]
William Clark '21 [3-8]
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 2 1 3 6 5 5 6 3 3 4 3 3 2 44 Jeffrey Proko '18
Samantha Morningstar '22
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 3 5 3 1 2 4 6 2 3 5 5 5 44 Natalie Jones '20 [1-8]
Rachel Prucnal '20 [9-12]
Lauren Brown '21 [1-8]
Umd Test '25 [9-12]
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 4 6 4 4 3 5 4 6 5 4 4 3 52 Audrey Fulk '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Alexander Holderness '21 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Emma Purinton '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Sophia Jefferson '21 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 1 5 2 5 6 4 3 7 4 DNS DNS DNF DNF 68 Jeffrey Proko '18
Tobias Green '22
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 7 7 7 7 DNF 7 5 7 DNS DNS DNS DNS 87 Gustav Berner '21
Madelyn Dynes '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons 1113355772244
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons 2224466113355
Loyola University MarylandLoyola University Maryland Greyhounds335577224466
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps557722446611
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen446611335577
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies661133557722
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe772244661133

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons 1224466113355
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons 2335577224466
Loyola University MarylandLoyola University Maryland Greyhounds446611335577
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps661133557722
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen557722446611
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies772244661133
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe113355772244
School / Team SkipperCrew
Drexel University Drexel University Frederick Piasecki '20 James Lewis '18
Dragons 1 Jeffrey Proko '18 Tobias Green '22
Drexel University Drexel University Alison Reed '21 [1-6, 9-12]
Elizabeth Jarvie '18 [7-8]
Elizabeth Jarvie '18 [1-4, 9-12]
Jamie Szul '21 [5-8]
Dragons 2 Jeffrey Proko '18 Samantha Morningstar '22
Loyola University Maryland Loyola University Maryland Elizabeth Loughan '21 [1-12] Whitney Kopp '21 [1-4]
Ann Bell '20 [5-8]
William Clark '21 [9-12]
Greyhounds Brendan O’Connor '21 [1-2, 9-12]
Ava Haag '21 [3-8]
Ximena Mendez '20 [1-2, 9-12]
William Clark '21 [3-8]
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy James Morgan '18 Bartholomew Winn '21
Midshipmen Sean Linden '21 Alyson Wade '21
University of Maryland University of Maryland Derek Safieh '21 [1-8]
Madeline Mulligan '20 [9-12]
Linnea Warburton '20 [1-8]
Amanda Kushner '21 [9-12]
Terps Natalie Jones '20 [1-8]
Rachel Prucnal '20 [9-12]
Lauren Brown '21 [1-8]
Umd Test '25 [9-12]
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Britt Osborne '21 Shannon Brassil '20
Hokies Gustav Berner '21 Madelyn Dynes '20
William and Mary William and Mary Connor Chapin '20 [1-6, 9-12]
Charles Neff '20 [7-8]
Charles Neff '20 [1-6, 9-12]
Connor Chapin '20 [7-8]
Tribe Audrey Fulk '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Alexander Holderness '21 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Emma Purinton '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Sophia Jefferson '21 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]

Conditions — 04/07/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 51%  ·  Pressure 1014.2 hPa

Temperature

41°F
↑ 43°F   ↓ 40°F
Feels like 33°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.5 kn
avg  ·  max 8.7 kn
Gusts to 19.2 kn
From NNW (346°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine0.5 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1014.2 hPa Rain0.03 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 9 kn · NW 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Maryland: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.12
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.20 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Maryland by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Maryland, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →