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LaserPerformance Women's Singlehanded Nationals

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT
Boston College Boston College Erika Reineke '17 3 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 8 1 2 3 31
Brown University Brown University Lindsey Baab '18 1 2 6 3 10 6 3 4 5 10 6 5 3 6 70
College of Charleston College of Charleston Kelly-Ann Arrindell '20 2 3 4 6 14 3 7 3 1 5 9 4 1 8 70
Georgetown University Georgetown University Haddon Hughes '19 5 4 10 8 2 5 6 2 10 6 1 7 9 4 79
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Dana Rohde '18 4 8 7 4 8 10 5 6 3 2 14 6 4 11 92
Yale University Yale University Louisa Nordstrom '20 9 9 2 5 3 4 11 9 9 3 5 11 5 14 99
College of Charleston College of Charleston Kelly Cole '19 11 1 3 10 6 8 10 7 8 8 3 10 8 7 100
Georgetown University Georgetown University Lola Bushnell '18 10 6 13 12 4 9 8 5 4 4 2 2 12 12 103
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Lenox Butcher '20 6 7 8 2 15 12 13 14 7 13 7 3 6 2 115
George Washington University George Washington University Riley Legault '19 12 13 12 13 7 7 2 8 6 12 10 8 7 1 118
Boston College Boston College Isabella Loosbrock '19 7 11 17 11 5 2 14 13 11 9 4 12 14 5 135
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Simone Staff '18 8 10 11 7 9 11 4 11 12 7 13 9 10 15 137
Stanford University Stanford University Haley Fox '18 14 14 5 14 11 17 9 12 13 11 15 13 17 13 178
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Ellie Ungar '19 13 15 9 9 12 13 17 18 15 17 12 15 11 9 185
Stanford University Stanford University Olivia Gugliemini '19 15 12 14 15 13 14 15 10 14 14 11 16 13 10 186
University of Washington University of Washington Laura Smit '18 16 17 16 16 16 18 12 15 16 16 16 14 15 16 219
Hope College Hope College Libby Reeg '17 17 16 18 17 17 15 16 16 17 15 18 17 16 18 233
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Haley Walker '18 18 18 15 18 18 16 18 17 18 18 17 18 18 17 244

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  18 boats · 14 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Erika Reineke '17Boston College Eagles 214/143.815.50+1.6894th → 99th9.01%2.2 / 5.6
2Kelly-Ann Arrindell '20College of Charleston Cougars 114/142.773.69+0.9274th → 93rd3.65%5.0 / 8.0
2Lindsey Baab '18Brown University14/143.073.81+0.7483rd → 94th2.412%5.0 / 7.2
4Haddon Hughes '19Georgetown University Hoyas 214/142.973.56+0.5981st → 92nd1.617%5.6 / 7.6
5Dana Rohde '18U. S. Coast Guard Academy14/143.123.18+0.0784th → 85th0.041%6.6 / 7.2
6Louisa Nordstrom '20Yale University14/142.753.01+0.2673rd → 83rd0.331%7.1 / 8.1
7Kelly Cole '19College of Charleston Cougars 214/141.33u3.17+1.8431st → 84th13.24%7.1 / 11.7
8Lola Bushnell '18Georgetown University Hoyas 114/142.662.92+0.2670th → 79th0.432%7.4 / 8.3
9Lenox Butcher '20University of Pennsylvania14/142.102.56+0.4655th → 67th1.021%8.2 / 9.8
10Riley Legault '19George Washington University14/142.672.62−0.0571st → 69th0.054%8.4 / 8.4
11Isabella Loosbrock '19Boston College Eagles 114/142.652.07−0.5970th → 53rd2.074%9.6 / 8.5
12Simone Staff '18University of California at Santa Barbara14/142.582.39−0.1968th → 61st0.269%9.8 / 8.6
13Haley Fox '18Stanford University Cardinal 114/141.961.38−0.5850th → 33rd1.989%12.7 / 10.2
14Ellie Ungar '19St. Mary's College of Maryland14/141.960.97−0.9950th → 22nd5.393%13.2 / 10.3
15Olivia Gugliemini '19Stanford University Cardinal 214/141.621.47−0.1540th → 37th0.186%13.3 / 11.1
16Laura Smit '18University of Washington14/141.100.57−0.5325th → 15th1.594%15.6 / 12.3
17Libby Reeg '17Hope College14/140.64-0.13−0.7717th → 4th2.797%16.6 / 13.3
18Haley Walker '18Texas A&M University at Galveston14/14-0.08-1.18−1.105th → 1st3.398%17.4 / 14.7

Conditions — 11/05/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 62%  ·  Pressure 1021.9 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 72°F
Feels like 76°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.6 kn
avg  ·  max 8.1 kn
Gusts to 15.7 kn
From ENE (75°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover52% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1021.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Texas A&M Galveston — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Texas A&M Galveston in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.08)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Texas A&M Galveston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (29 labelled fleet-race days at Texas A&M Galveston).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →