LaserPerformance Women's Singlehanded Nationals

Women's
HostGrand Valley State
Date11/03/2018
TypeNational Championship Finals
BoatRadial
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Stanford University	Christina Sakellaris '21	60
2	Jacksonville University	Charlotte Rose '22	61
3	Boston College	Sophia Reineke '21	69
4	Brown University	Hannah Steadman '20	79
5	Georgetown University	Carly Broussard '21	83
6	University of Pennsylvania	Lenox Butcher '20	95
7	Boston College	Isabella Loosbrock '19	99
8	College of Charleston	Kelly-Ann Arrindell '20	103
9	George Washington University	Riley Legault '19	115
10	U. S. Naval Academy	Jessica Mcjones '20	126
11	Yale University	Louisa Nordstrom '20	128
12	Stanford University	Sophia Sole '21	137
13	Tufts University	Abbie Carlson '22	148
14	Tulane University	Ciara Rodriguez-Horan '22	184
15	Connecticut College	Analucia Clarkson '22	199
16	University of Wisconsin	Cailin Considine '19	234
17	Michigan State University	Rachel Rantanen '19	235
18	University of British Columbia	Gabrielle Savage '18	245

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT
Stanford University	Christina Sakellaris '21	2	4	10	7	9	3	1	6	4	1	5	2	1	5	60
Jacksonville University	Charlotte Rose '22	7	6	8	1	2	12	2	14	1	2	2	1	2	1	61
Boston College	Sophia Reineke '21	8	7	12	6	1	11	3	1	3	5	3	3	3	3	69
Brown University	Hannah Steadman '20	3	3	1	3	14	4	4	2	7	4	6	10	10	8	79
Georgetown University	Carly Broussard '21	13	10	2	5	5	1	11	8	2	6	1	4	9	6	83
University of Pennsylvania	Lenox Butcher '20	6	9	4	2	4	8	8	10	5	9	4	15	4	7	95
Boston College	Isabella Loosbrock '19	9	14	3	8	8	5	10	3	10	3	12	5	5	4	99
College of Charleston	Kelly-Ann Arrindell '20	4	8	7	4	3	6	6	7	6	10	11	9	11	11	103
George Washington University	Riley Legault '19	10	5	9	9	6	2	5	13	8	12	9	11	6	10	115
U. S. Naval Academy	Jessica Mcjones '20	11	11	6	11	12	7	12	15	11	7	7	7	7	2	126
Yale University	Louisa Nordstrom '20	1	1	5	12	7	10	9	11	12	11	13	8	15	13	128
Stanford University	Sophia Sole '21	14	16	14	10	10	13	7	5	9	8	8	6	8	9	137
Tufts University	Abbie Carlson '22	5	2	11	15	11	15	13	4	13	13	10	12	12	12	148
Tulane University	Ciara Rodriguez-Horan '22	12	13	15	13	13	9	14	9	14	16	14	14	14	14	184
Connecticut College	Analucia Clarkson '22	15	12	16	14	15	14	15	12	15	15	15	13	13	15	199
University of Wisconsin	Cailin Considine '19	17	15	18	17	17	16	18	17	17	14	16	17	DNF	16	234
Michigan State University	Rachel Rantanen '19	18	17	17	16	18	17	17	16	16	17	17	16	16	17	235
University of British Columbia	Gabrielle Savage '18	16	18	13	18	16	18	16	18	18	18	DNF	DNS	DNS	DNS	245

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 18 boats · 14 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Christina Sakellaris '21	Stanford University Cardinal 1	14/14	3.12	4.34	+1.21	84th → 98th	6.0	3%	4.3 / 7.8
2	Charlotte Rose '22	Jacksonville University	14/14	3.57	4.05	+0.48	92nd → 95th	1.0	10%	4.4 / 6.6
3	Sophia Reineke '21	Boston College Eagles 1	14/14	3.56	3.96	+0.39	92nd → 95th	0.7	19%	4.9 / 6.6
4	Hannah Steadman '20	Brown University	14/14	3.10	3.59	+0.48	84th → 92nd	1.1	14%	5.6 / 7.8
5	Carly Broussard '21	Georgetown University	14/14	2.77	3.59	+0.82	74th → 92nd	3.0	9%	5.9 / 8.7
6	Lenox Butcher '20	University of Pennsylvania	14/14	2.82	3.30	+0.49	77th → 87th	1.1	19%	6.8 / 8.5
7	Isabella Loosbrock '19	Boston College Eagles 2	14/14	2.99	3.22	+0.23	81st → 85th	0.3	32%	7.1 / 8.1
8	Kelly-Ann Arrindell '20	College of Charleston	14/14	2.89	3.28	+0.39	78th → 86th	0.8	33%	7.4 / 8.3
9	Riley Legault '19	George Washington University	14/14	3.09	3.01	−0.08	83rd → 83rd	0.0	61%	8.2 / 7.8
10	Jessica Mcjones '20	U. S. Naval Academy	14/14	2.72	2.76	+0.03	72nd → 74th	0.0	56%	9.0 / 8.8
11	Louisa Nordstrom '20	Yale University	14/14	3.12	2.42	−0.70	84th → 62nd	2.9	76%	9.1 / 7.8
12	Sophia Sole '21	Stanford University Cardinal 2	14/14	2.45	2.47	+0.02	62nd → 62nd	0.0	56%	9.8 / 9.5
13	Abbie Carlson '22	Tufts University	14/14	1.63	2.24	+0.61	40th → 59th	1.8	28%	10.6 / 11.7
14	Ciara Rodriguez-Horan '22	Tulane University	14/14	1.60	1.71	+0.10	40th → 42nd	0.1	72%	13.1 / 11.7
15	Analucia Clarkson '22	Connecticut College	14/14	1.88	1.32	−0.56	47th → 31st	1.9	91%	14.2 / 11.0
16	Cailin Considine '19	University of Wisconsin	14/14	0.94	0.00	−0.93	21st → 6th	3.9	98%	16.7 / 13.2
17	Rachel Rantanen '19	Michigan State University	14/14	1.00	-0.28	−1.29	22nd → 4th	7.5	98%	16.8 / 13.0
18	Gabrielle Savage '18	University of British Columbia	14/14	0.45	-0.79	−1.25	13th → 1st	3.4	99%	17.5 / 14.1

Conditions — 11/03/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 60% · Pressure 1020.8 hPa

Temperature

42°F

↑ 46°F ↓ 35°F

Feels like 35°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.7 kn

avg · max 8.4 kn

Gusts to 19.0 kn

From NW (310°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover69% Sunshine9.4 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1020.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Grand Valley State — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Grand Valley State in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Grand Valley State by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Grand Valley State, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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