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Georgetown Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 11–1
2 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 7–5
3 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 6–6
4 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 5–7
5 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 1–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 16,158 team race matches sailed before 2022-03-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 22 of 30 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.509 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.01 ± 0.35: a typical event, more orderly than 43% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Georgetown University
Hoyas		110.90
school +0.14		Mariner Fagan / Jack Hogan
Jack Reiter / Annabelle Ayer 3.76
Scott Mais / Addi Harris 3.37		87%11–1 (92%)+0.6
2George Washington University
Colonials		39.43
school +0.06		Matt Logue / Ana Carrasco Solla 3.18
Cameron Feves / Genevieve Mumma 3.18
Anthony Minder / Abbie Chipps 2.95		54%7–5 (58%)+0.5
3Hobart and William Smith Colleges
Statesmen		29.61
school +0.08		Jake Vickers / Katherine Klempen 3.41
Charles Carraway / Sarah Smith 3.06
Will Murray / Tory Mileti		59%6–6 (50%)−1.0
4Old Dominion University
Monarchs		58.07
school +0.18		Bridget Groble / Ethan Tutt 2.84
Parker Purrington / Makalynne Dyer 2.75
Noyl Odom / Isabelle Kanach		21%5–7 (42%)+2.5
5Fordham University
Rams		48.48
school +0.24		Clayton Snyder / Lauren Miller 2.68
Kenneth Corsig / Edward Harrison 2.54
Porter Kavle / Bella Rabeni 2.93		30%1–11 (8%)−2.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
4Old Dominion University8.079.205–72.5+1.122.17%
1Georgetown University10.9011.4611–110.4+0.560.250%
2George Washington University9.439.677–56.4+0.240.149%
3Hobart and William Smith Colleges9.619.176–67.0−0.450.385%
5Fordham University8.486.681–113.6−1.792.999%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Noyl OdomOld Dominion University2.063.185–72.5+1.122.17%
Anthony MinderGeorge Washington University2.953.207–56.4+0.240.149%
Clayton SnyderFordham University2.680.891–113.6−1.792.999%
Kenneth CorsigFordham University2.540.751–113.6−1.792.999%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Georgetown UniversityFordham University92%
12Hobart and William Smith CollegesGeorge Washington University55%
13Old Dominion UniversityFordham University36%upset
14Georgetown UniversityGeorge Washington University82%
15George Washington UniversityFordham University72%
16Old Dominion UniversityHobart and William Smith Colleges16%upset
17Georgetown UniversityOld Dominion University95%
18Hobart and William Smith CollegesFordham University75%
19George Washington UniversityOld Dominion University80%
110Georgetown UniversityHobart and William Smith Colleges79%
211Georgetown UniversityFordham University92%
212George Washington UniversityHobart and William Smith Colleges45%upset
213Old Dominion UniversityFordham University40%upset
214Georgetown UniversityGeorge Washington University81%
215Hobart and William Smith CollegesOld Dominion University82%
216George Washington UniversityFordham University72%
217Georgetown UniversityOld Dominion University94%
218Hobart and William Smith CollegesFordham University75%
219Old Dominion UniversityGeorge Washington University21%upset
220Georgetown UniversityHobart and William Smith Colleges78%
321Hobart and William Smith CollegesOld Dominion University82%
322George Washington UniversityGeorgetown University19%upset
323Old Dominion UniversityFordham University42%upset
324Georgetown UniversityHobart and William Smith Colleges78%
325George Washington UniversityFordham University72%
326Georgetown UniversityOld Dominion University94%
327Fordham UniversityHobart and William Smith Colleges24%upset
328George Washington UniversityOld Dominion University78%
329Georgetown UniversityFordham University92%
330Hobart and William Smith CollegesGeorge Washington University55%

Round 1

TeamRec.HoyasColonialsStatesmenMonarchsRams
Georgetown University Hoyas4–0✕WWWW
George Washington University Colonials2–2L✕LWW
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen2–2LW✕LW
Old Dominion University Monarchs2–2LLW✕W
Fordham University Rams0–4LLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.HoyasColonialsStatesmenMonarchsRams
Georgetown University Hoyas4–0✕WWWW
George Washington University Colonials2–2L✕WLW
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen2–2LL✕WW
Old Dominion University Monarchs2–2LWL✕W
Fordham University Rams0–4LLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.HoyasColonialsStatesmenMonarchsRams
Georgetown University Hoyas3–1✕LWWW
George Washington University Colonials3–1W✕LWW
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen2–2LW✕WL
Old Dominion University Monarchs1–3LLL✕W
Fordham University Rams1–3LLWL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-4-5 def. Fordham University Rams 2-3-6
2 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2-3-4 def. George Washington University Colonials 1-5-6
3 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-3 def. Fordham University Rams 4-5-6
4 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-3 def. George Washington University Colonials 4-5-6
5 George Washington University Colonials 1-2-5 def. Fordham University Rams 3-4-6
6 Old Dominion University Monarchs 2-3-5 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-4-6
7 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-6 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 3-4-5
8 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-5 def. Fordham University Rams 3-4-6
9 George Washington University Colonials 2-3-4 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-5-6
10 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-6 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3-4-5
11 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-5 def. Fordham University Rams 3-4-6
12 George Washington University Colonials 1-3-4 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2-5-6
13 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-4-5 def. Fordham University Rams 2-3-6
14 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-6 def. George Washington University Colonials 3-4-5
15 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-5 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 3-4-6
16 George Washington University Colonials 1-2-6 def. Fordham University Rams 3-4-5
17 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-4 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 3-5-6
18 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-5 def. Fordham University Rams 3-4-6
19 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-6 def. George Washington University Colonials 3-4-5
20 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-5 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3-4-6
21 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2-3-4 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-5-6
22 George Washington University Colonials 1-2-6 def. Georgetown University Hoyas 3-4-5
23 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-4-5 def. Fordham University Rams 2-3-6
24 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-3 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 4-5-6
25 George Washington University Colonials 1-2-5 def. Fordham University Rams 3-4-6
26 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-3 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 4-5-6
27 Fordham University Rams 1-3-4 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2-5-6
28 George Washington University Colonials 2-3-4 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-5-6
29 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-4 def. Fordham University Rams 3-5-6
30 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-5 def. George Washington University Colonials 3-4-6

Conditions — 03/05/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1030.1 hPa

Temperature

50°F
↑ 59°F   ↓ 34°F
Feels like 43°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.8 kn
avg  ·  max 9.2 kn
Gusts to 20.2 kn
From SE (144°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover61% Sunshine8.5 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1030.1 hPa

What this breeze does at George Washington/Georgetown — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at George Washington/Georgetown in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.02)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at George Washington/Georgetown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at George Washington/Georgetown: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →