George Washington University '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.71 (fleet 3.77) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 23–33 (41%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 4 | 22–28 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 1–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (56 matches) the record is 23–33 against 25.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-09 | Prosser Trophy MAISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.86 | 3.06 | 5–9 | 4.5 | +0.20 | 0.1 | 48% |
| 2022-04-02 | The 39th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 2.86 | 2.09 | 2–6 | 2.9 | −0.77 | 0.5 | 90% |
| 2022-03-26 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.92 | 2.41 | 8–8 | 9.7 | −0.51 | 0.6 | 89% |
| 2022-03-05 | Georgetown Team Race | skipper | 2.95 | 3.20 | 7–5 | 6.4 | +0.24 | 0.1 | 49% |
| 2020-03-07 | St. Mary's Team Race Inter-Conference | skipper | 2.72 | 2.11 | 1–5 | 1.5 | −0.62 | 0.2 | 85% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Prosser Trophy MAISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 19 | 32% | — |
| GW Invite | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.7 | 1.69 |
| Georgetown Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 50% | — |
| The 39th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Top 9 MAISA Coed Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.8 | 3.17 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.4 | 3.72 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race Inter-Conference | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.3 | 3.35 |
| Oyster Bowl | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.3 | 3.89 |
| Top MAISA Coed | Skipper | B | 5 | 13.4 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Anthony Minder |  Tabor Academy |
'19 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
