Prosser Trophy MAISA Team Race Championship

HostNavy
Date04/09/2022
TypeConference Championship
BoatZ420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	16–3
2	Georgetown University	Hoyas	13–6
3	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	12–7
4	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	10–9
5	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	7–12
6	George Washington University	Colonials	6–13
7	Fordham University	Rams	5–9
8	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	2–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 18,258 team race matches sailed before 2022-04-09, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 54 of 72 matches (75%) with a log-loss of 0.556 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.16 ± 0.27: a typical event, more orderly than 62% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	1	10.64 school +0.47, home +0.36	Gray Benson / Kimmie Leonard 3.19 Olivia De Olazarra / Ryan Wahba 2.97 Jc Hermus / Fiona Lobon 3.63	76%	16–3 (84%)	+1.5
2	Georgetown University Hoyas	2	10.49 school +0.32	Mariner Fagan / Jack Hogan 3.39 Jack Reiter / Annabelle Ayer 3.52 Scott Mais / Addi Harris 3.24	73%	13–6 (68%)	−0.9
3	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	5	9.42 school +0.28	Leo Boucher / Madison Bashaw 3.33 Charlie Anderson / Ellie Sekowski 2.60 Owen Hennessey / Sam Muir 3.17	46%	12–7 (63%)	+3.3
4	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	3	9.67 school +0.12	Charles Carraway / Sarah Smith 3.06 Jake Vickers / Katherine Klempen 3.37 Will Murray / Tory Mileti 3.09	53%	10–9 (53%)	−0.1
5	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	4	9.49 school +0.29	Christopher Sharpless / Shaanti Choi-Bose 3.04 Samuel Gavula / Kiki Bruzzi 2.73 Jordan Bruce / Joshua Zeelander 3.40	49%	7–12 (37%)	−2.2
6	George Washington University Colonials	6	9.06 school +0.11	Matt Logue / Kaleigh Morgan 3.02 Michael Ehnot / Abbie Chipps 2.98 Anthony Minder / Ana Carrasco Solla 2.86 5–9 Cameron Feves / Ana Carrasco Solla 3.10 2–4	39%	7–13 (35%)	−0.8
7	Fordham University Rams	7	8.52 school +0.15	Clayton Snyder / Rebecca Keller 2.69 Porter Kavle / Bella Rabeni 3.00 Kenneth Corsig / Edward Harrison 2.65	28%	5–10 (33%)	+0.9
8	Old Dominion University Monarchs	8	8.42 school +0.21	Bridget Groble / Isabelle Kanach 2.84 Parker Purrington / Makalynne Dyer 2.72 Noyl Odom / Katherine Barton 2.59	26%	2–12 (14%)	−1.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	St. Mary's College of Maryland	9.42	10.22	12–7	8.7	+0.80	1.9	9%
1	U. S. Naval Academy	10.64	11.18	16–3	14.5	+0.54	0.6	30%
7	Fordham University	8.52	8.82	5–10	4.1	+0.30	0.2	40%
4	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	9.67	9.64	10–9	10.1	−0.03	0.0	62%
6	George Washington University	9.06	8.86	7–13	7.8	−0.20	0.1	74%
2	Georgetown University	10.49	10.24	13–6	13.9	−0.25	0.2	78%
5	University of Pennsylvania	9.49	8.93	7–12	9.2	−0.56	0.9	91%
8	Old Dominion University	8.42	7.64	2–12	3.6	−0.78	0.8	92%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Charlie Anderson	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.60	3.39	12–7	8.7	+0.80	1.9	9%
Jc Hermus	U. S. Naval Academy	3.63	4.18	16–3	14.5	+0.54	0.6	30%
Clayton Snyder	Fordham University	2.69	2.99	5–10	4.1	+0.30	0.2	40%
Kenneth Corsig	Fordham University	2.65	2.95	5–10	4.1	+0.30	0.2	40%
Anthony Minder	George Washington University	2.86	3.06	5–9	4.5	+0.20	0.1	48%
Samuel Gavula	University of Pennsylvania	2.73	2.18	7–12	9.2	−0.56	0.9	91%
Noyl Odom	Old Dominion University	2.59	1.80	2–12	3.6	−0.78	0.8	92%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	66%
1	2	University of Pennsylvania	St. Mary's College of Maryland	52%
1	3	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	89%
1	4	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	89%
1	5	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Pennsylvania	54%
1	6	Georgetown University	George Washington University	82%
1	7	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	71%
1	8	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	90%
1	9	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	73%
1	10	Fordham University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	24%	upset
1	11	George Washington University	Old Dominion University	64%
1	12	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	77%
1	13	Georgetown University	Fordham University	88%
1	14	University of Pennsylvania	Old Dominion University	75%
1	15	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	44%	upset
1	16	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	84%
1	17	Old Dominion University	Fordham University	47%	upset
1	18	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	75%
1	19	George Washington University	University of Pennsylvania	38%	upset
1	20	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Naval Academy	27%	upset
1	21	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	73%
1	22	George Washington University	Fordham University	67%
1	23	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Georgetown University	30%	upset
1	24	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	76%
1	25	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	55%
1	26	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Old Dominion University	78%
1	27	Fordham University	University of Pennsylvania	28%	upset
1	28	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	54%
2	29	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	66%
2	30	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Pennsylvania	48%	upset
2	31	Old Dominion University	Georgetown University	11%	upset
2	32	Fordham University	U. S. Naval Academy	11%	upset
2	33	University of Pennsylvania	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	45%	upset
2	34	Georgetown University	George Washington University	82%
2	35	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	71%
2	36	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	90%
2	37	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	73%
2	38	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	76%
2	39	George Washington University	Old Dominion University	63%
2	40	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	77%
2	41	Georgetown University	Fordham University	88%
2	42	University of Pennsylvania	Old Dominion University	74%
2	43	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	44%	upset
2	44	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	84%
2	45	Fordham University	Old Dominion University	52%
2	46	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Georgetown University	26%	upset
2	47	George Washington University	University of Pennsylvania	38%	upset
2	48	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	72%
2	49	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	73%
2	50	Fordham University	George Washington University	33%	upset
2	51	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	69%
2	52	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Naval Academy	24%	upset
2	53	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	55%
2	54	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Old Dominion University	77%
2	55	University of Pennsylvania	Fordham University	72%
2	56	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	54%
3	58	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	74%
3	59	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	72%
3	60	University of Pennsylvania	George Washington University	62%
3	61	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	54%
3	62	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	55%
3	63	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Pennsylvania	55%
3	64	Georgetown University	George Washington University	82%
3	65	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	76%
3	66	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	St. Mary's College of Maryland	56%
3	67	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	84%
3	68	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Pennsylvania	49%	upset
3	69	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	69%
3	70	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	77%
3	71	George Washington University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	33%	upset
3	72	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	73%
6	57	George Washington University	Fordham University	67%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Midshipmen	Hoyas	Seahawks	Statesmen	Quakers	Colonials	Rams	Monarchs
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6–1	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	5–2	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4–3	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	5–2	W	W	L	✕	W	W	L	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	2–5	L	L	W	L	✕	L	L	W
George Washington University Colonials	3–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W
Fordham University Rams	2–5	L	L	L	W	W	L	✕	L
Old Dominion University Monarchs	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Midshipmen	Hoyas	Seahawks	Statesmen	Quakers	Colonials	Rams	Monarchs
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5–2	✕	W	W	W	L	W	L	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	4–3	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	L
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	6–1	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	3–4	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	4–3	W	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	2–5	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W
Fordham University Rams	3–4	W	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	1–6	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Midshipmen	Hoyas	Seahawks	Statesmen	Quakers	Colonials
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	4–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	2–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	2–3	L	L	W	✕	W	L
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
George Washington University Colonials	1–4	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Round 6

	Team	Rec.	Colonials	Rams
	George Washington University Colonials	1–0	✕	W
	Fordham University Rams	0–1	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
2	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
3	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
4	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
5	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
6	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
7	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
8	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
9	Hoyas	2-3-5	def.	Quakers	1-4-6
10	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
11	Colonials	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
12	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
13	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
14	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
15	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
16	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Colonials	2-5-6
17	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
18	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
19	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
20	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
21	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
22	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
23	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
24	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
25	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Colonials	1-5-6
26	Statesmen	1-3-4	def.	Monarchs	2-5-6
27	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
28	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
29	Statesmen	2-3-5	def.	Colonials	1-4-6
30	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
31	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
32	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
33	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
34	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Colonials	2-5-6
35	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
36	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
37	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
38	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
39	Colonials	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
40	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
41	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
42	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
43	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
44	Midshipmen	1-3-5	def.	Colonials	2-4-6
45	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
46	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
47	Colonials	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
48	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Statesmen	2-5-6
49	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
50	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
51	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
52	Quakers	1-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-6
53	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
54	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
55	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
56	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
58	Hoyas	1-3-5	def.	Seahawks	2-4-6
59	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
60	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
61	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
62	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Colonials	2-5-6
63	Statesmen	1-3-5	def.	Quakers	2-4-6
64	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
65	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
66	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
67	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
68	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
69	Hoyas	1-4-5	def.	Statesmen	2-3-6
70	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
71	Colonials	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
72	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
57	Colonials	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Gray Benson '22 Jc Hermus '22 Olivia De Olazarra '22	Kimmie Leonard '22 Fiona Lobon '22 Ryan Wahba '25
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Jack Reiter '22 Mariner Fagan '24 Scott Mais '23	Annabelle Ayer '22 Jack Hogan '22 Addi Harris '24
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Charlie Anderson '25 Leo Boucher '22 Owen Hennessey '25	Ellie Sekowski '23 Madison Bashaw '24 Sam Muir '22
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Charles Carraway '22 Jake Vickers '22 Will Murray '24	Sarah Smith '22 Katherine Klempen '22 Tory Mileti '22
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Christopher Sharpless '23 Jordan Bruce '24 Samuel Gavula '24	Shaanti Choi-Bose '24 Joshua Zeelander '24 Kiki Bruzzi '25
George Washington University	Colonials	Anthony Minder '24 Cameron Feves '22 Matt Logue '22 Michael Ehnot '22	Ana Carrasco Solla '22 Kaleigh Morgan '24 Abbie Chipps '25
Fordham University	Rams	Clayton Snyder '22 Kenneth Corsig '23 Porter Kavle '22	Rebecca Keller '25 Edward Harrison '22 Bella Rabeni '24
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Bridget Groble '22 Noyl Odom '24 Parker Purrington '24	Isabelle Kanach '25 Katherine Barton '23 Makalynne Dyer '22

Conditions — 04/09/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 58% · Pressure 1005.5 hPa

Temperature

52°F

↑ 56°F ↓ 45°F

Feels like 46°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.9 kn

avg · max 8.0 kn

Gusts to 20.4 kn

From W (272°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover51% Sunshine10.3 hrs Humidity58% Pressure1005.5 hPa Rain0.05 in

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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