Admiral Moore Team Race

HostNY Maritime
Date03/26/2022
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
Boat420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	13–3
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	13–3
3	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	12–4
4	Fordham University	Rams	11–5
5	George Washington University	Colonials	8–8
6	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	6–10
7	University of Miami	Hurricanes	4–12
7	Roger Williams University	Hawks	4–12
9	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	1–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 17,267 team race matches sailed before 2022-03-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 50 of 73 matches (68%) with a log-loss of 0.561 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.13 ± 0.24: a typical event, more orderly than 29% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	1	9.73 school +0.17	Charles Carraway / Sarah Smith 3.05 Jake Vickers / Katherine Klempen 3.40 11–2 Will Murray / Tory Mileti 3.08 11–2 Jake Vickers / Aaron Tsuchitori 3.40 3–1 Will Murray / Blake Stackpoole 3.11 3–1	74%	14–3 (82%)	+1.4
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4	9.26 school +0.23	Leo Boucher / Ellie Sekowski 3.35 9–4 Charlie Anderson / Katherine Shermock 2.46 9–4 Owen Hennessey / Sam Muir 3.17 9–4 Leo Boucher / Sam Muir 3.25 4–0 Charlie Anderson / Henry Haddon 2.52 4–0 Owen Hennessey / Dexter Mueller 3.23 4–0	63%	13–4 (76%)	+2.3
3	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3	9.33 school −0.13	Colman Schofield / Mary Tran 3.18 Daniel Unangst / Jack Farrell 3.21 Matthew Kickhafer / Lauren O'Neill 3.04 11–3 Matthew Kickhafer / Charles Mason 3.04 1–1	66%	12–4 (75%)	+1.4
4	Fordham University Rams	6	8.27 school +0.11	Clayton Snyder / Rebecca Keller 2.60 Kenneth Corsig / Edward Harrison 2.58 Porter Kavle / Bella Rabeni 2.95	44%	11–5 (69%)	+4.0
5	George Washington University Colonials	5	9.03 school +0.08	Anthony Minder / Allison Forsyth 2.92 5–7 Michael Ehnot / Abbie Chipps 3.11 4–6 Matt Logue / Ana Carrasco Solla 3.12 2–6 Owen Timms / Ana Carrasco Solla 2.76 3–1 Owen Timms / Abbie Chipps 2.77 3–1 Anthony Minder / Matthew Priebe 2.92 3–1 Michael Ehnot / Jack Umina 3.12 3–1 Matthew Priebe / Jack Umina 2.75 1–1	61%	8–8 (50%)	−1.7
6	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	7	8.18 school −0.20, home +0.32	Spencer Barnes / Camille Nastasi 2.48 Benton Amthor / Mark Modzelewski 3.42 4–8 John Vail / Kaitlin Brzostek 2.11 4–8 Benton Amthor / Marcus Adam 3.38 2–2 John Vail / Mark Modzelewski 2.21 2–2	41%	6–10 (38%)	−0.6
7	University of Miami Hurricanes	9	6.55	Richard Mccann / Grace Harden 2.49 4–10 Aidan Dennis / Dominic Canonico 2.45 3–7 Zachary Ward / Ashley Delisser 2–8 Zachary Ward / Chloe Beach 2–4 Aidan Dennis / Ashley Delisser 2.40 1–3 Aidan Dennis / Chloe Beach 2.46 0–2 Richard Mccann / Chloe Beach 2.53 0–2	13%	4–12 (25%)	+2.0
7	Roger Williams University Hawks	2	9.28 school +0.38	George Higham / Grace Woodcock 2.79 Mathieu Dale / Annika Irene 2.99 John Walton / Jaqueline Frode 3.15 2–8 John Walton / Ethan Snyder 3.02 2–4	66%	4–12 (25%)	−6.6
9	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	8	7.17 school −0.29	Lucas Sawin / Ellary Boyd 2.56 William Weinbecker / Rachel Beisswenger 2.43 Michael Burns / Ruby Redmond 2.38	21%	1–15 (6%)	−2.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
4	Fordham University	8.27	9.55	11–5	7.0	+1.28	3.7	2%
7	University of Miami	6.55	7.48	4–12	2.0	+0.93	1.4	12%
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland	9.26	10.02	13–4	10.7	+0.76	1.2	16%
1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	9.73	10.27	14–3	12.6	+0.54	0.5	31%
3	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	9.33	9.84	12–4	10.5	+0.51	0.5	30%
6	SUNY Maritime College	8.18	7.98	6–10	6.6	−0.20	0.1	73%
5	George Washington University	9.03	8.52	8–8	9.7	−0.51	0.6	89%
9	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	7.17	5.54	1–15	3.3	−1.63	2.3	99%
7	Roger Williams University	9.28	7.09	4–12	10.6	−2.19	10.1	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Clayton Snyder	Fordham University	2.60	3.87	11–5	7.0	+1.28	3.7	2%
Kenneth Corsig	Fordham University	2.58	3.85	11–5	7.0	+1.28	3.7	2%
Richard Mccann	University of Miami	2.49	3.42	4–12	2.0	+0.93	1.4	12%
Aidan Dennis	University of Miami	2.45	3.38	4–12	2.0	+0.93	1.4	12%
Zachary Ward	University of Miami	1.45	2.38	4–12	2.0	+0.93	1.4	12%
Charlie Anderson	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.46	3.22	13–4	10.7	+0.76	1.2	16%
Anthony Minder	George Washington University	2.92	2.41	8–8	9.7	−0.51	0.6	89%
George Higham	Roger Williams University	2.79	0.60	4–12	10.6	−2.19	10.1	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	SUNY Maritime College	76%
1	2	Fordham University	University of Miami	88%
1	3	George Washington University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	90%
1	4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	38%	upset
1	5	SUNY Maritime College	Roger Williams University	24%	upset
1	6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	90%
1	7	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	81%
1	8	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	49%	upset
1	9	SUNY Maritime College	University of Miami	86%
1	10	Roger Williams University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	90%
1	11	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	George Washington University	52%
1	12	Fordham University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	27%	upset
1	13	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	University of Miami	66%
1	14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	SUNY Maritime College	82%
1	15	George Washington University	Roger Williams University	39%	upset
1	16	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	48%	upset
1	17	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	93%
1	18	George Washington University	University of Miami	89%
1	19	SUNY Maritime College	Fordham University	48%	upset
1	20	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Roger Williams University	50%
1	21	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	61%
1	22	Fordham University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	75%
1	23	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Miami	94%
1	24	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Roger Williams University	48%	upset
1	25	George Washington University	Fordham University	65%
1	26	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	60%
1	27	Roger Williams University	University of Miami	94%
1	28	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Maritime College	74%
1	29	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Fordham University	74%
1	30	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Roger Williams University	63%
1	31	SUNY Maritime College	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	74%
1	32	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Miami	94%
1	33	Fordham University	Roger Williams University	28%	upset
1	34	George Washington University	SUNY Maritime College	66%
1	35	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Miami	96%
1	36	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	89%
2	37	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	SUNY Maritime College	76%
2	38	Fordham University	University of Miami	84%
2	39	George Washington University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	89%
2	40	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	St. Mary's College of Maryland	61%
2	41	SUNY Maritime College	Roger Williams University	24%	upset
2	42	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	90%
2	43	Fordham University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	19%	upset
2	44	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	50%
2	45	University of Miami	SUNY Maritime College	17%	upset
2	46	Roger Williams University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	90%
2	47	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	George Washington University	52%
2	48	Fordham University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	27%	upset
2	49	University of Miami	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	37%	upset
2	50	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	SUNY Maritime College	83%
2	51	George Washington University	Roger Williams University	39%	upset
2	52	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	49%	upset
2	53	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	93%
2	54	University of Miami	George Washington University	13%	upset
2	55	Fordham University	SUNY Maritime College	52%
2	56	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Roger Williams University	50%	upset
2	57	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	62%
2	58	Fordham University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	74%
2	59	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Miami	94%
2	60	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Roger Williams University	48%	upset
2	61	Fordham University	George Washington University	35%	upset
2	62	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	40%	upset
2	63	University of Miami	Roger Williams University	7%	upset
2	64	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Maritime College	75%
2	65	Fordham University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	26%	upset
2	66	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Roger Williams University	63%
2	67	SUNY Maritime College	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	73%
2	68	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Miami	93%
2	69	Roger Williams University	Fordham University	72%
2	70	George Washington University	SUNY Maritime College	66%
2	71	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Miami	95%
2	72	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	89%
2	73	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	St. Mary's College of Maryland	61%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Statesmen	Seahawks	Bears	Rams	Colonials	Privateers	Hurricanes	Hawks	Mariners
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	7–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	7–1	W	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	6–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Fordham University Rams	4–4	L	W	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	5–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	4–4	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W
University of Miami Hurricanes	0–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	L
Roger Williams University Hawks	2–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	1–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Statesmen	Seahawks	Bears	Rams	Colonials	Privateers	Hurricanes	Hawks	Mariners
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	7–2	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	6–3	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	6–2	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
Fordham University Rams	7–1	W	W	W	✕	W	W	W	L	W
George Washington University Colonials	3–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	2–6	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W
University of Miami Hurricanes	4–4	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	2–6	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	0–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Privateers	2-4-6
2	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Hurricanes	3-5-6
3	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
4	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
5	Privateers	1-3-6	def.	Hawks	2-4-5
6	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Mariners	1-5-6
7	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
8	Seahawks	2-3-5	def.	Colonials	1-4-6
9	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-5
10	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Mariners	3-4-5
11	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
12	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
13	Mariners	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-5
14	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
15	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
16	Seahawks	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
17	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Mariners	1-5-6
18	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
19	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
20	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
21	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
22	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Mariners	3-4-5
23	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Hurricanes	2-5-6
24	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
25	Colonials	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
26	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
27	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Hurricanes	1-5-6
28	Seahawks	1-3-6	def.	Privateers	2-4-5
29	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
30	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
31	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
32	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
33	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
34	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
35	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Hurricanes	4-5-6
36	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
37	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Privateers	2-3-6
38	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
39	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Mariners	3-4-5
40	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
41	Privateers	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
42	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Mariners	3-5-6
43	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
44	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
45	Hurricanes	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
46	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
47	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
48	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
49	Hurricanes	1-3-5	def.	Mariners	2-4-6
50	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
51	Colonials	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
52	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
53	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
54	Hurricanes	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
55	Rams	1-3-5	def.	Privateers	2-4-6
56	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
57	Statesmen	1-4-5	def.	Colonials	2-3-6
58	Rams	1-3-6	def.	Mariners	2-4-5
59	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Hurricanes	4-5-6
60	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
61	Rams	1-4-5	def.	Colonials	2-3-6
62	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
63	Hurricanes	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
64	Seahawks	1-3-5	def.	Privateers	2-4-6
65	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
66	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
67	Privateers	1-2-4	def.	Mariners	3-5-6
68	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Hurricanes	1-5-6
69	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
70	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
71	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
72	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
73	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Charles Carraway '22 Jake Vickers '22 Will Murray '24	Sarah Smith '22 Aaron Tsuchitori '22 Katherine Klempen '22 Blake Stackpoole '22 Tory Mileti '22
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Charlie Anderson '25 Leo Boucher '22 Owen Hennessey '25	Katherine Shermock '24 Henry Haddon '25 Ellie Sekowski '23 Sam Muir '22 Dexter Mueller '24
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Colman Schofield '25 Daniel Unangst '24 Matthew Kickhafer '23	Mary Tran '22 Jack Farrell '23 Lauren O'Neill '24 Charles Mason '23
Fordham University	Rams	Clayton Snyder '22 Kenneth Corsig '23 Porter Kavle '22	Rebecca Keller '25 Edward Harrison '22 Bella Rabeni '24
George Washington University	Colonials	Anthony Minder '24 Matt Logue '22 Matthew Priebe '22 Michael Ehnot '22 Owen Timms '23	Allison Forsyth '22 Matthew Priebe '22 Ana Carrasco Solla '22 Jack Umina '22 Abbie Chipps '25
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	Benton Amthor '23 John Vail '24 Spencer Barnes '24	Mark Modzelewski '23 Marcus Adam '23 Kaitlin Brzostek '22 Camille Nastasi '22
University of Miami	Hurricanes	Aidan Dennis '25 Richard Mccann '23 Zachary Ward '25	Chloe Beach '24 Ashley Delisser '24 Dominic Canonico '23 Grace Harden '22
Roger Williams University	Hawks	George Higham '23 John Walton '22 Mathieu Dale '25	Grace Woodcock '23 Jaqueline Frode '22 Ethan Snyder '25 Annika Irene '23
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	Lucas Sawin '25 Michael Burns '25 William Weinbecker '25	Ellary Boyd '24 Ruby Redmond '24 Rachel Beisswenger '22

Conditions — 03/26/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 68% · Pressure 997.4 hPa

Temperature

48°F

↑ 52°F ↓ 45°F

Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.2 kn

avg · max 11.1 kn

Gusts to 23.5 kn

From WSW (238°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover89% Sunshine6.8 hrs Humidity68% Pressure997.4 hPa Rain0.13 in Snow0.11 in

What this breeze does at NY Maritime — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at NY Maritime in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at NY Maritime by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (32 labelled fleet-race days at NY Maritime).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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