Roger Williams University '22
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 52.95 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.115 rating points from 21 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.75 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 2 | Fall 2017 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.54 (fleet 3.49) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 85–57 (60%) as crew 2–0 (100%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 4 | 37–24 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 4 | 21–12 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 11–3 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 4 | 16–18 | 2–0 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 13 graded regattas (142 matches) the record is 85–57 against 83.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.4). 5 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 28 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-03-26 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.15 | 0.96 | 4–12 | 10.6 | −2.19 | 10.1 | >99% |
| 2022-03-19 | Southern New England Team Race | skipper | 3.17 | 3.92 | 13–6 | 10.3 | +0.76 | 1.5 | 12% |
| 2022-03-12 | Rudkin Team Race | skipper | 3.20 | 2.23 | 7–3 | 8.3 | −0.97 | 0.9 | 95% |
| 2022-03-05 | Hap Moore | skipper | 3.07 | 3.97 | 13–3 | 10.8 | +0.91 | 1.4 | 15% |
| 2021-05-22 | Mystic Lake Team Racing Invite | skipper | 3.06 | 0.06 | 0–5 | 2.0 | ≤−3.00 | 4.7 | >99% |
| 2021-03-27 | Robin Wallace Team Race | skipper | 2.74 | 4.68 | 4–1 | 2.4 | +1.94 | 2.1 | 12% |
| 2021-03-20 | Southern New England Team Race | skipper | 2.67 | 3.18 | 5–4 | 4.2 | +0.51 | 0.3 | 40% |
| 2021-03-13 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.53 | 3.68 | 12–2 | 9.9 | +1.16 | 1.7 | 13% |
| 2020-03-07 | MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | skipper | 2.70 | 3.20 | 11–3 | 9.9 | +0.50 | 0.4 | 36% |
| 2019-04-06 | Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.62 | 3.73 | 8–3 | 5.7 | +1.12 | 1.8 | 11% |
| 2019-03-23 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.56 | 2.58 | 4–4 | 4.0 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 2019-03-16 | Southern New England Team Race | skipper | 2.70 | -0.30 | 0–10 | 2.0 | ≤−3.00 | 3.2 | >99% |
| 2019-03-09 | Arctic Circle Team Racing Invitational | skipper | 2.52 | 3.12 | 4–1 | 3.6 | +0.60 | 0.2 | 57% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Throphy | Skipper | B | 15 | 9.0 | 3.31 |
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 67% | — |
| Rudkin Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 67% | — |
| Hap Moore | Skipper | TR | 16 | 81% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 25% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts Invitational | Skipper | A | 2 | 2.0 | 5.30 |
| Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 13 | 6.7 | — |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 8.9 | 3.43 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.6 | 3.34 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.7 | 3.63 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| URI Spring Invite | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.2 | 3.83 |
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 56% | — |
| RWU Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.9 | 3.38 |
| Robin Wallace Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 80% | — |
| Robin Wallace Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 5 | 9.8 | 2.75 |
| Mystic Lake Team Racing Invite | Skipper | TR | 5 | 0% | — |
| 2021 Gill College Sailing Coed Nationals | Crew | A | 5 | 10.8 | — |
| Ewenson Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.0 | 1.12 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 86% | — |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | Skipper | TR | 22 | 82% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 5.4 | 3.21 |
| Mt. Hope Invite | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.1 | 3.08 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 13.8 | 2.23 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.8 | 1.72 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | C | 4 | 12.8 | 2.18 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Arctic Circle Team Racing Invitational | Skipper | TR | 7 | 86% | — |
| Southern New England Team Race | Crew | TR | 18 | 22% | — |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 11 | 73% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 50% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Norman Reid Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.7 | 2.64 |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.1 | 3.30 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.5 | 3.00 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.8 | 3.05 |
| Hewitt Trophy Division 2 | Skipper | A | 16 | 11.2 | 2.28 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | John Walton |  Grosse Pointe South High School |
'18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
