Southern New England Team Race

HostCoast Guard
Date03/19/2022
TypeCross Regional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Tufts University	Jumbos	16–2
2	Harvard University	Crimson	13–5
3	Roger Williams University	Hawks	12–6
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	12–6
5	Boston College	Eagles	10–8
6	Connecticut College	Camels	8–10
7	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	5–13
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	5–13
8	University of Rhode Island	Rams	5–13
10	Boston University	Terriers	4–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 16,901 team race matches sailed before 2022-03-19, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 59 of 91 matches (65%) with a log-loss of 0.642 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.51 ± 0.21: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 10% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Tufts University Jumbos	3	10.13 school +0.09	Samuel Merson / Celia Byrne 3.40 Alex Fasolo / Amelia Carlson 3.22 Ansgar Jordan / Ann Sheridan 3.39	69%	16–2 (89%)	+3.5
2	Harvard University Crimson	1	10.66 school +0.14	Emma Kaneti / Tyler Masuyama 3.28 Henry Burnes / Christopher Wang 3.54 Lachlain Mcgranahan / Pomaika'I Ogata 3.69 9–5 Lachlain Mcgranahan / Sophia Montgomery 3.63 4–0	80%	13–5 (72%)	−1.3
3	Roger Williams University Hawks	5	9.46 school +0.36	Riley Read / Carly Kiss 2.95 Mathieu Dale / Annika Irene 2.93 John Walton / Jaqueline Frode 3.17	54%	13–6 (68%)	+2.8
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	4	9.78 school −0.23, home +0.32	Daniel Unangst / Jack Farrell 3.31 Matthew Kickhafer / Lauren O'Neill 3.13 Colman Schofield / Sydney Motherway 3.21 7–6 Colman Schofield / Mary Tran 3.21 5–1	62%	12–7 (63%)	+0.3
5	Boston College Eagles	2	10.55 school +0.33	Jack Denatale / Nicole Moeder 3.47 Colleen O'Brien / Declan Mcgranahan 3.35 Sophia Reineke / Katelyn Mcgauley 3.36	77%	10–8 (56%)	−3.9
6	Connecticut College Camels	10	6.90 school +0.27	Cj Mckenna / Cecilia Bohan 2.79 Thomas Whittemore / Alexandra Tillinghast 2.99 7–7 Walter Henry / Katherine Wetzel 5–5 Margaret Benson / Katherine Wetzel 3–5 William Bedford / Margaret Benson 1–3	11%	8–10 (44%)	+6.1
7	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	6	8.94 school +0.23	Christopher Lukens / Timmy Gee 3.24 Ellie Maus / Meghan Gonzalez 2.90 Thibault Antonietti / Cj Ricci 2.50	43%	5–13 (28%)	−2.7
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	7	8.61 school −0.07	John Ped / Abigail Vanlonkhuyzen 2.75 Maks Groom / Samantha Karlson 2.66 Sam Bruce / Maaya Prasad 3.23	36%	5–13 (28%)	−1.6
8	University of Rhode Island Rams	8	8.46 school −0.23	Aidan Naughton / Taylor Borges 3.30 Parker Colantuono / Clare Laroche 2.96 Joshua Bartoszuk / Sadie Thomas 2.40	35%	5–13 (28%)	−1.3
10	Boston University Terriers	9	8.42	Tyler Mowry / Carolyn Kravets 3.09 Elliott Mendenhall / Catherine Shakin 2.30 Noah Robitshek / Lachlan Hooper 2.92	32%	4–14 (22%)	−1.8

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
6	Connecticut College	6.90	9.07	8–10	1.9	+2.17	10.6	<1%
1	Tufts University	10.13	11.60	16–2	12.5	+1.46	3.3	4%
3	Roger Williams University	9.46	10.22	13–6	10.3	+0.76	1.5	12%
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	9.78	9.86	12–7	11.7	+0.08	0.0	55%
2	Harvard University	10.66	10.19	13–5	14.3	−0.47	0.5	87%
8	University of Rhode Island	8.46	7.96	5–13	6.3	−0.49	0.5	86%
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	8.61	8.11	5–13	6.6	−0.50	0.6	87%
10	Boston University	8.42	7.79	4–14	5.8	−0.63	0.8	91%
7	Bowdoin College	8.94	8.11	5–13	7.7	−0.83	1.6	96%
5	Boston College	10.55	9.37	10–8	13.9	−1.18	3.5	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
William Bedford	Connecticut College	0.90	3.81	1–3	0.1	+2.91	2.5	8%
Walter Henry	Connecticut College	0.95	3.56	5–5	1.1	+2.61	8.1	<1%
Cj Mckenna	Connecticut College	2.79	4.96	8–10	1.9	+2.17	10.6	<1%
Thomas Whittemore	Connecticut College	2.99	5.03	7–7	1.9	+2.04	8.4	<1%
Alex Fasolo	Tufts University	3.22	4.68	16–2	12.5	+1.46	3.3	4%
Ansgar Jordan	Tufts University	3.39	4.85	16–2	12.5	+1.46	3.3	4%
Aidan Naughton	University of Rhode Island	3.30	2.80	5–13	6.3	−0.49	0.5	86%
Joshua Bartoszuk	University of Rhode Island	2.40	1.90	5–13	6.3	−0.49	0.5	86%
Elliott Mendenhall	Boston University	2.30	1.67	4–14	5.8	−0.63	0.8	91%
Thibault Antonietti	Bowdoin College	2.50	1.67	5–13	7.7	−0.83	1.6	96%
Sophia Reineke	Boston College	3.36	2.18	10–8	13.9	−1.18	3.5	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Harvard University	29%	upset
1	2	Connecticut College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	17%	upset
1	3	Boston University	Roger Williams University	26%	upset
1	4	Tufts University	Bowdoin College	77%
1	5	Boston College	University of Rhode Island	89%
1	6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Connecticut College	93%
1	7	Harvard University	Boston University	91%
1	8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	42%	upset
1	9	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	73%
1	10	Tufts University	Boston College	40%	upset
1	11	Connecticut College	Boston University	23%	upset
1	12	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bowdoin College	70%
1	13	Harvard University	University of Rhode Island	90%
1	14	Tufts University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	82%
1	15	Roger Williams University	Boston College	25%	upset
1	16	Bowdoin College	Boston University	63%
1	17	Connecticut College	University of Rhode Island	3%	upset
1	18	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tufts University	41%	upset
1	19	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	23%	upset
1	20	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	88%
1	21	Bowdoin College	University of Rhode Island	61%
1	22	Tufts University	Boston University	85%
1	23	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	88%
1	24	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	76%
1	25	Harvard University	Boston College	53%
1	26	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	84%
1	27	Bowdoin College	Roger Williams University	37%	upset
1	28	Boston University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	45%	upset
1	29	Harvard University	Connecticut College	100%
1	30	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	69%
1	31	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	66%
1	32	University of Rhode Island	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	46%	upset
1	33	Harvard University	Bowdoin College	84%
1	34	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Boston University	80%
1	35	Boston College	Connecticut College	96%
1	36	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	70%
1	37	Tufts University	Harvard University	37%	upset
1	38	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Rhode Island	79%
1	39	Connecticut College	Bowdoin College	19%	upset
1	40	Boston College	Boston University	89%
1	41	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	88%
1	42	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Roger Williams University	58%
1	43	Connecticut College	Tufts University	7%	upset
1	44	University of Rhode Island	Boston University	51%
1	45	Boston College	Bowdoin College	83%
2	46	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	71%
2	47	Connecticut College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	21%	upset
2	48	Boston University	Roger Williams University	26%	upset
2	49	Tufts University	Bowdoin College	77%
2	50	Boston College	University of Rhode Island	89%
2	51	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Connecticut College	92%
2	52	Harvard University	Boston University	90%
2	53	Bowdoin College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	58%
2	54	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	73%
2	55	Tufts University	Boston College	40%	upset
2	56	Connecticut College	Boston University	25%	upset
2	57	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bowdoin College	70%
2	58	Harvard University	University of Rhode Island	90%
2	59	Tufts University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	82%
2	60	Roger Williams University	Boston College	25%	upset
2	61	Bowdoin College	Boston University	62%
2	62	University of Rhode Island	Connecticut College	96%
2	63	Tufts University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	59%
2	64	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	23%	upset
2	65	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston College	13%	upset
2	66	University of Rhode Island	Bowdoin College	38%	upset
2	67	Tufts University	Boston University	84%
2	68	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	88%
2	69	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	24%	upset
2	70	Harvard University	Boston College	53%
2	71	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	84%
2	72	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	63%
2	73	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston University	54%
2	74	Harvard University	Connecticut College	99%
2	75	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Boston College	31%	upset
2	76	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	66%
2	77	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Rhode Island	54%
2	78	Harvard University	Bowdoin College	84%
2	79	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Boston University	79%
2	80	Boston College	Connecticut College	95%
2	81	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	70%
2	82	Tufts University	Harvard University	37%	upset
2	83	University of Rhode Island	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	21%	upset
2	84	Connecticut College	Bowdoin College	19%	upset
2	85	Boston College	Boston University	89%
2	86	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	88%
2	87	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	42%	upset
2	88	Tufts University	Connecticut College	93%
2	89	Boston University	University of Rhode Island	50%	upset
2	90	Boston College	Bowdoin College	83%
2	91	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	42%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Jumbos	Crimson	Hawks	Bears	Eagles	Camels	Bears	Engineers	Rams	Terriers
Tufts University Jumbos	7–2	✕	W	W	L	W	L	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	6–3	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	5–4	L	W	✕	L	W	W	L	W	W	L
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	8–1	W	W	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	6–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	5–4	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	3–6	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L	L
University of Rhode Island Rams	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
Boston University Terriers	2–7	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Jumbos	Crimson	Hawks	Bears	Eagles	Camels	Bears	Engineers	Rams	Terriers
Tufts University Jumbos	9–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	7–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	8–2	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	L
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	4–6	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	L	L	W
Boston College Eagles	4–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	4–5	L	L	L	W	W	L	L	✕	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	3–6	L	L	L	W	L	W	W	L	✕	L
Boston University Terriers	2–7	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Crimson	2-4-6
2	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
3	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
4	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
5	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
6	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
7	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
8	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
9	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
10	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
11	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
12	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
13	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
14	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
15	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
16	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
17	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
18	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
19	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
20	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
21	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
22	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
23	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
24	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
25	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
26	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
27	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
28	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
29	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
30	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
31	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
32	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
33	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	2-5-6
34	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
35	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
36	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
37	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
38	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
39	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
40	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
41	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
42	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
43	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
44	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
45	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
46	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
47	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
48	Terriers	1-5-6	def.	Hawks	2-3-4 RAF
49	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
50	Eagles	2-3-5	def.	Rams	1-4-6
51	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
52	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
53	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
54	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
55	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
56	Camels	1-4-5	def.	Terriers	2-3-6
57	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
58	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
59	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
60	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
61	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
62	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
63	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
64	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
65	Engineers	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
66	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
67	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
68	Hawks	1-4-5	def.	Camels	2-3-6
69	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
70	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
71	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
72	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-6
73	Engineers	1-3-4	def.	Terriers	2-5-6
74	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
75	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
76	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
77	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
78	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
79	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Terriers	2-4-6
80	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Camels	2-5-6
81	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Engineers	2-4-6
82	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
83	Rams	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
84	Camels	1-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	2-5-6
85	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
86	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6
87	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
88	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
89	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
90	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
91	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Tufts University	Jumbos	Alex Fasolo '22 Ansgar Jordan '22 Samuel Merson '22	Amelia Carlson '24 Ann Sheridan '22 Celia Byrne '24
Harvard University	Crimson	Emma Kaneti '22 Henry Burnes '22 Lachlain Mcgranahan '24	Tyler Masuyama '23 Christopher Wang '23 Pomaika'I Ogata '24 Sophia Montgomery '25
Roger Williams University	Hawks	John Walton '22 Mathieu Dale '25 Riley Read '22	Jaqueline Frode '22 Annika Irene '23 Carly Kiss '25
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Colman Schofield '25 Daniel Unangst '24 Matthew Kickhafer '23	Mary Tran '22 Sydney Motherway '24 Jack Farrell '23 Lauren O'Neill '24
Boston College	Eagles	Colleen O'Brien '24 Jack Denatale '22 Sophia Reineke '22	Declan Mcgranahan '22 Nicole Moeder '22 Katelyn Mcgauley '24
Connecticut College	Camels	Cj Mckenna '22 Margaret Benson '23 Thomas Whittemore '22 Walter Henry '22 William Bedford '22	Cecilia Bohan '24 Katherine Wetzel '23 Alexandra Tillinghast '23 Margaret Benson '23
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Christopher Lukens '23 Ellie Maus '22 Thibault Antonietti '24	Timmy Gee '25 Meghan Gonzalez '23 Cj Ricci '24
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	John Ped '21 Maks Groom '24 Sam Bruce '24	Abigail Vanlonkhuyzen '23 Samantha Karlson '25 Maaya Prasad '22
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Aidan Naughton '22 Joshua Bartoszuk '25 Parker Colantuono '22	Taylor Borges '22 Sadie Thomas '25 Clare Laroche '23
Boston University	Terriers	Elliott Mendenhall '25 Noah Robitshek '25 Tyler Mowry '23	Catherine Shakin '23 Lachlan Hooper '25 Carolyn Kravets '25

Conditions — 03/19/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 93% · Pressure 1011.2 hPa

Temperature

54°F

↑ 58°F ↓ 48°F

Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.2 kn

avg · max 8.7 kn

Gusts to 21.2 kn

From SSE (164°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine6.7 hrs Humidity93% Pressure1011.2 hPa Rain0.83 in

What this breeze does at Coast Guard — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Coast Guard in this breeze: a typical day (−0.02)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Coast Guard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (57 labelled fleet-race days at Coast Guard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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