The 39th Lynne Marchiando Regatta

HostMIT
Date04/02/2022
TypeCross Regional
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Roger Williams University	Hawks	12–3
2	Yale University	Bulldogs	12–3
3	Stanford University	Cardinal	11–4
4	Harvard University	Crimson	10–5
5	Dartmouth College	Big Green	10–5
6	Tufts University	Jumbos	9–6
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	9–6
8	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	7–8
9	Boston University	Terriers	7–8
10	Boston College	Eagles	7–8
11	University of Rhode Island	Rams	7–8
12	Connecticut College	Camels	6–9
13	Brown University	Bears	5–10
14	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	5–10
15	George Washington University	Colonials	3–12
16	University of Vermont	Catamounts	0–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 17,727 team race matches sailed before 2022-04-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 82 of 112 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.599 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.37 ± 0.19: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 15% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Roger Williams University Hawks	3	10.54 school +0.31	Spencer Cartwright / Rachel Holick 3.60 Aidan Hoogland / Molly Matthews 3.43 6–3 Cameron Wood / Emily Gildea 3.51 6–2 Riley Read / Emily Gildea 2.99 6–1 Aidan Hoogland / Hank Bailey 3.26 6–0	72%	12–3 (80%)	+1.3
2	Yale University Bulldogs	1	11.60 school +0.29	Teddy Nicolosi / Anisha Arcot 3.62 Shawn Harvey / Sonia Lingos-Utley 4.04 11–3 Jack Egan / Catherine Webb 3.64 8–2 Jack Egan / Benjamin Markert 3.64 4–1 Shawn Harvey / Nathan Sih 4.03 1–0	88%	12–3 (80%)	−1.2
3	Stanford University Cardinal	2	10.99 school +0.46	Jack Parkin / Sammy Pickell 3.74 Michelle Lahrkamp / Patricia Gerli 3.46 Wiley Rogers / Anaclare Sole 3.33 6–2 Wiley Rogers / Gwendolyn Donahue 3.31 5–2	80%	11–4 (73%)	−0.9
4	Harvard University Crimson	4	10.16 school +0.20	Henry Burnes / Christopher Wang 3.42 Eric Hansen / Ariel Wang 2.81 Lachlain Mcgranahan / Alexandra Dorofeev 3.75 9–3 Lachlain Mcgranahan / Cassia Lee 3.64 0–2	62%	9–5 (64%)	+0.3
5	Dartmouth College Big Green	7	9.90 school +0.26	Robert Bragg / Eloise Burn 3.60 7–2 James Paul / Reese Bragg 2.99 7–2 William Michels / Drew Clutterbuck 3.07 7–2 Robert Bragg / Christopher Long 3.51 3–3 James Paul / Drew Clutterbuck 2.93 3–3 William Michels / Ryan Goldstein 3.13 3–3	59%	10–5 (67%)	+1.2
6	Tufts University Jumbos	6	9.97 school +0.13	Samuel Merson / Celia Byrne 3.31 Ansgar Jordan / Ann Sheridan 3.35 8–5 Alex Fasolo / Amelia Carlson 3.18 8–4 Alex Fasolo / George Sidamon-Eristoff 3.11 0–2 Ansgar Jordan / William Eykyn 3.17 0–1	61%	8–6 (57%)	−0.5
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	14	8.45 school −0.12, home +0.33	Maks Groom / Samantha Karlson 2.56 7–6 John Ped / Jeremy Mcculloch 2.63 6–3 Sam Bruce / Maaya Prasad 3.05 3–4 Sam Bruce / Nicholas Abate 3.04 4–2 John Ped / Abigail Vanlonkhuyzen 2.60 2–3 Maks Groom / Nicholas Abate 2.59 1–0 Sam Bruce / Julius Heitkoetter 3.14 1–0	28%	8–6 (57%)	+4.1
8	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	9	9.28 school −0.13	Colman Schofield / Mary Tran 3.18 Matthew Kickhafer / Lauren O'Neill 3.03 Daniel Unangst / Jack Farrell 3.18 7–7 Nathan Olmsted / Charles Mason 3.02 0–1	46%	7–8 (47%)	+0.2
9	Boston University Terriers	15	8.28 school −0.09	Noah Robitshek / Catherine Shakin 2.72 Micky Munns / Matthew Hamelsky 2.59 Tyler Mowry / Lachlan Hooper 3.03 6–2 Tyler Mowry / Madeline Stull 3.04 1–6	25%	7–8 (47%)	+3.2
10	Boston College Eagles	10	9.63 school +0.26	Jack Denatale / Katelyn Mcgauley 3.44 Robert Hunter / Emma Batcher 3.42 Libby Redmond / Declan Mcgranahan 2.48 2–5 Libby Redmond / Lourdes Gallo 2.55 1–2	44%	3–7 (30%)	−1.4
11	University of Rhode Island Rams	12	8.77 school −0.26	Aidan Naughton / Taylor Borges 3.12 Parker Colantuono / Clare Laroche 2.79 Kerem Erkmen / Edward Gary 3.09	35%	7–7 (50%)	+2.1
12	Connecticut College Camels	8	9.57 school +0.34	Walter Henry / Katherine Wetzel 2.99 5–8 Cj Mckenna / Cecilia Bohan 3.28 3–5 Thomas Whittemore / Jean-Michel Bus 3.08 3–3 Cj Mckenna / Liam Gronda 3.24 3–3 Thomas Whittemore / Alexandra Tillinghast 3.12 2–3 William Bedford / Margaret Benson 2.47 1–1 Walter Henry / Alexandra Tillinghast 2.90 1–0 William Bedford / Jean-Michel Bus 2.47 0–1	50%	6–8 (43%)	−1.1
13	Brown University Bears	5	10.06 school +0.23	Jack Murphy / Madeleine Montagner 3.48 Connor Nelson / Julia Reynolds 3.38 Hunter Zonnenberg / Izzy Cox 2.95 5–5 Hunter Zonnenberg / Lily Shore 2.95 0–5	61%	5–10 (33%)	−4.2
14	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	13	8.42 school +0.13	Thomas Hall / Cj Ricci 2.76 Christopher Lukens / Timmy Gee 3.08 3–7 Sam Bonauto / John Seider 3.01 2–3 Jonathan Chance / John Seider 1.96 1–3 Jonathan Chance / Jondall Norris 2.01 1–1 Christopher Lukens / Jondall Norris 3.03 1–0	32%	4–7 (36%)	+0.5
15	George Washington University Colonials	11	8.94 school +0.10	Michael Ehnot / Abbie Chipps 3.04 3–10 Cameron Feves / Genevieve Mumma 3.18 2–11 Anthony Minder / Matthew Priebe 2.86 2–2 Anthony Minder / Allison Forsyth 2.80 0–4 Oscar Macgillivray / Jack Umina 2.43 0–3 Oscar Macgillivray / Allison Forsyth 2.38 1–2 Matthew Priebe / Genevieve Mumma 2.77 1–0 Matthew Priebe / Abbie Chipps 2.70 0–1	39%	3–11 (21%)	−2.4
16	University of Vermont Catamounts	16	6.75 school −0.12	Nicholas Salvesen / Maddy Saffer 2.18 Connell Phillipps / Caroline James 2.63 0–11 Ryan Hamilton / Natasha Vallett 2.02 0–11 Connell Phillipps / Alex Boni 2.61 0–3 Ryan Hamilton / Sam Thompson 2.03 0–3	8%	0–14 (0%)	−1.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	8.45	10.02	8–6	3.9	+1.57	4.8	1%
9	Boston University	8.28	9.45	7–8	3.8	+1.17	2.8	4%
11	University of Rhode Island	8.77	9.58	7–7	4.9	+0.81	1.3	15%
1	Roger Williams University	10.54	11.14	12–3	10.7	+0.60	0.5	32%
5	Dartmouth College	9.90	10.35	10–5	8.8	+0.45	0.4	34%
14	Bowdoin College	8.42	8.69	4–7	3.5	+0.27	0.1	50%
4	Harvard University	10.16	10.27	9–5	8.7	+0.11	0.0	56%
8	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	9.28	9.33	7–8	6.9	+0.05	0.0	58%
6	Tufts University	9.97	9.79	8–6	8.5	−0.18	0.1	73%
12	Connecticut College	9.57	9.16	6–8	7.1	−0.41	0.3	83%
3	Stanford University	10.99	10.58	11–4	11.9	−0.42	0.3	84%
2	Yale University	11.60	10.95	12–3	13.2	−0.65	0.6	91%
10	Boston College	9.63	8.89	3–7	4.4	−0.74	0.7	91%
15	George Washington University	8.94	7.86	3–11	5.4	−1.07	1.8	97%
13	Brown University	10.06	8.63	5–10	9.2	−1.43	4.3	>99%
16	University of Vermont	6.75	3.75	0–14	1.1	≤−3.00	1.6	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Aidan Naughton	University of Rhode Island	3.12	3.93	7–7	4.9	+0.81	1.3	15%
Kerem Erkmen	University of Rhode Island	3.09	3.90	7–7	4.9	+0.81	1.3	15%
Spencer Cartwright	Roger Williams University	3.60	4.20	12–3	10.7	+0.60	0.5	32%
Aidan Hoogland	Roger Williams University	3.43	4.02	12–3	10.7	+0.60	0.5	32%
James Paul	Dartmouth College	2.99	3.44	10–5	8.8	+0.45	0.4	34%
William Bedford	Connecticut College	2.47	2.90	1–2	0.8	+0.43	0.1	67%
Eric Hansen	Harvard University	2.81	2.92	9–5	8.7	+0.11	0.0	56%
Alex Fasolo	Tufts University	3.18	3.00	8–6	8.5	−0.18	0.1	73%
Ansgar Jordan	Tufts University	3.35	3.17	8–6	8.5	−0.18	0.1	73%
Walter Henry	Connecticut College	2.99	2.59	6–8	7.1	−0.41	0.3	83%
Thomas Whittemore	Connecticut College	3.08	2.51	5–6	6.3	−0.58	0.5	89%
Anthony Minder	George Washington University	2.86	2.09	2–6	2.9	−0.77	0.5	90%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	76%
2	Yale University	Boston College	88%
3	Connecticut College	University of Vermont	95%
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Boston University	73%
5	Tufts University	Harvard University	45%	upset
6	Roger Williams University	Brown University	53%
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	George Washington University	45%	upset
8	Bowdoin College	University of Rhode Island	54%
9	Connecticut College	Stanford University	20%	upset
10	Yale University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	91%
11	Dartmouth College	University of Vermont	96%
12	Boston University	Boston College	21%	upset
13	Harvard University	George Washington University	80%
14	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	90%
15	Tufts University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	82%
16	University of Rhode Island	Brown University	21%	upset
17	Stanford University	University of Vermont	99%
18	Yale University	Boston University	97%
19	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	58%
20	Roger Williams University	Boston College	75%
21	Tufts University	Connecticut College	58%
22	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Brown University	32%	upset
23	Stanford University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	93%
24	University of Rhode Island	Yale University	6%	upset
25	Dartmouth College	George Washington University	66%
27	Harvard University	University of Vermont	97%
28	Roger Williams University	Boston University	92%
29	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Connecticut College	23%	upset
30	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Rhode Island	63%
31	Stanford University	Tufts University	74%
32	Yale University	Brown University	82%
33	George Washington University	University of Vermont	92%
34	Bowdoin College	Boston University	67%
35	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Dartmouth College	20%	upset
37	Harvard University	Connecticut College	63%
38	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	71%
39	Stanford University	George Washington University	86%
40	Yale University	Bowdoin College	93%
41	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Vermont	85%
42	University of Rhode Island	Boston University	62%
43	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	53%
44	Boston College	Brown University	39%	upset
45	Connecticut College	George Washington University	71%
46	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bowdoin College	57%
47	Stanford University	Harvard University	70%
48	Roger Williams University	Yale University	19%	upset
49	Tufts University	University of Vermont	96%
50	Brown University	Boston University	85%
51	Dartmouth College	Connecticut College	54%
52	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	58%
53	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Harvard University	15%	upset
54	University of Rhode Island	Roger Williams University	11%	upset
55	George Washington University	Tufts University	31%	upset
56	Brown University	Bowdoin College	74%
57	Yale University	Dartmouth College	84%
58	Boston University	Stanford University	6%	upset
59	Connecticut College	Boston College	53%
60	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	71%
61	University of Rhode Island	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	58%
62	Tufts University	Bowdoin College	89%
63	Yale University	George Washington University	92%
64	Roger Williams University	University of Vermont	98%
65	Dartmouth College	Brown University	47%	upset
66	Stanford University	Boston College	80%
67	Boston University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	46%	upset
68	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Connecticut College	39%	upset
69	Harvard University	Yale University	20%	upset
70	Roger Williams University	George Washington University	77%
71	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	77%
72	Bowdoin College	University of Vermont	76%
73	Boston College	Dartmouth College	43%	upset
74	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	34%	upset
75	Yale University	Connecticut College	92%
76	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	66%
77	Harvard University	Brown University	53%
78	University of Rhode Island	University of Vermont	88%
79	George Washington University	Bowdoin College	59%
80	Tufts University	Boston University	85%
81	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston College	22%	upset
82	Dartmouth College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	66%
83	Connecticut College	Brown University	42%	upset
84	Harvard University	University of Rhode Island	80%
85	Bowdoin College	Stanford University	5%	upset
86	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	58%
87	Boston University	University of Vermont	82%
88	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	96%
89	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	George Washington University	71%
90	Harvard University	Boston College	63%
91	Dartmouth College	University of Rhode Island	76%
92	Brown University	Tufts University	52%
93	Connecticut College	University of Rhode Island	58%
94	Yale University	Tufts University	83%
95	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	69%
97	Brown University	George Washington University	71%
98	Stanford University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	85%
99	Boston University	Connecticut College	19%	upset
101	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	29%	upset
103	Brown University	University of Vermont	96%
104	Stanford University	University of Rhode Island	90%
105	Boston University	Harvard University	14%	upset
107	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	92%
109	Yale University	University of Vermont	99%
110	Tufts University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	67%
111	Stanford University	Brown University	72%
112	Dartmouth College	Boston University	84%
114	University of Rhode Island	George Washington University	41%	upset
121	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	85%
122	Yale University	Stanford University	64%
123	Boston University	George Washington University	39%	upset
124	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Vermont	92%
125	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	88%
126	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Brown University	16%	upset

Round 0

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Bulldogs	Cardinal	Crimson	Green	Jumbos	Engineers	Bears	Terriers	Eagles	Rams	Camels	Bears	Bears	Colonials	Catamounts
Roger Williams University Hawks	12–3	✕	W	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	12–3	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	11–4	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	L	W	L	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	10–5	L	W	L	✕	W	L	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	10–5	W	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	9–6	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	L	W	L	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	9–6	L	L	L	W	W	L	✕	W	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	7–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston University Terriers	7–8	L	L	W	W	L	L	W	L	✕	W	L	W	L	L	W	W
Boston College Eagles	7–8	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	7–8	W	W	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	L	✕	L	W	L	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	6–9	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	W	L	W	W
Brown University Bears	5–10	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	5–10	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	W	L	✕	L	W
George Washington University Colonials	3–12	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	0–15	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Cardinal	1-4-5	def.	Big Green	2-3-6
2	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
3	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
4	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Terriers	2-5-6
5	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Crimson	2-5-6
6	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
7	Engineers	2-4-5	def.	Colonials	1-3-6 DSQ
8	Polar Bears	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
9	Camels	1-3-6	def.	Cardinal	2-4-5
10	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
11	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
12	Terriers	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
13	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
14	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
15	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
16	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
17	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
18	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
19	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Big Green	2-3-6
20	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
21	Jumbos	1-3-6	def.	Camels	2-4-5
22	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
23	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
24	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
25	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Colonials	4-5-6
26	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
27	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
28	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
29	Engineers	1-3-6	def.	Camels	2-4-5
30	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
31	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
32	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
33	Colonials	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
34	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
35	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
36	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
37	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
38	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
39	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Colonials	4-5-6
40	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
41	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
42	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
43	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
44	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
45	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
46	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
47	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
48	Hawks	2-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	1-4-6
49	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
50	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Terriers	2-3-6
51	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
52	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
53	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
54	Rams	1-3-6	def.	Hawks	2-4-5
55	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
56	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
57	Bulldogs	1-3-6	def.	Big Green	2-4-5
58	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
59	Camels	2-3-5	def.	Eagles	1-4-6
60	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
61	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
62	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
63	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
64	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
65	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
66	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
67	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
68	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
69	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
70	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
71	Jumbos	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
72	Polar Bears	1-4-5	def.	Catamounts	2-3-6
73	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
74	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
75	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
76	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
77	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
78	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
79	Colonials	1-4-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-3-6
80	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
81	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
82	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
83	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
84	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
85	Polar Bears	1-3-6	def.	Cardinal	2-4-5
86	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
87	Terriers	1-4-5	def.	Catamounts	2-3-6
88	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
89	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Colonials	2-4-6
90	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
91	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
92	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
93	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
94	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
95	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
96	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
97	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Colonials	1-5-6
98	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
99	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
100	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
101	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
102	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
103	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
104	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
105	Terriers	1-4-5	def.	Crimson	2-3-6
106	Polar Bears	1-3-6	def.	Camels	2-4-5
107	Hawks	2-3-5	def.	Engineers	1-4-6
108	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Colonials	4-5-6
109	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
110	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
111	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
112	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
113	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
114	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
121	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
122	Bulldogs	2-3-5	def.	Cardinal	1-4-6
123	Terriers	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
124	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
125	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
126	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Aidan Hoogland '24 Cameron Wood '22 Riley Read '22 Spencer Cartwright '22	Molly Matthews '23 Hank Bailey '24 Emily Gildea '21 Rachel Holick '22
Yale University	Bulldogs	Jack Egan '25 Shawn Harvey '22 Teddy Nicolosi '24	Catherine Webb '23 Benjamin Markert '23 Sonia Lingos-Utley '22 Nathan Sih '25 Anisha Arcot '23
Stanford University	Cardinal	Jack Parkin '21 Michelle Lahrkamp '23 Wiley Rogers '22	Sammy Pickell '22 Patricia Gerli '23 Gwendolyn Donahue '24 Anaclare Sole '23
Harvard University	Crimson	Eric Hansen '23 Henry Burnes '22 Lachlain Mcgranahan '24	Ariel Wang '23 Christopher Wang '23 Alexandra Dorofeev '25 Cassia Lee '23
Dartmouth College	Big Green	James Paul '23 Robert Bragg '23 William Michels '25	Drew Clutterbuck '23 Reese Bragg '25 Christopher Long '23 Eloise Burn '21 Ryan Goldstein '22
Tufts University	Jumbos	Alex Fasolo '22 Ansgar Jordan '22 Samuel Merson '22	George Sidamon-Eristoff '22 Amelia Carlson '24 Ann Sheridan '22 William Eykyn '25 Celia Byrne '24
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	John Ped '21 Maks Groom '24 Sam Bruce '24	Jeremy Mcculloch '22 Abigail Vanlonkhuyzen '23 Samantha Karlson '25 Nicholas Abate '25 Maaya Prasad '22 Julius Heitkoetter '25
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Colman Schofield '25 Daniel Unangst '24 Matthew Kickhafer '23 Nathan Olmsted '23	Mary Tran '22 Jack Farrell '23 Lauren O'Neill '24 Charles Mason '23
Boston University	Terriers	Micky Munns '23 Noah Robitshek '25 Tyler Mowry '23	Matthew Hamelsky '23 Catherine Shakin '23 Lachlan Hooper '25 Madeline Stull '23
Boston College	Eagles	Jack Denatale '22 Libby Redmond '24 Robert Hunter '22	Katelyn Mcgauley '24 Declan Mcgranahan '22 Lourdes Gallo '24 Emma Batcher '22
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Aidan Naughton '22 Kerem Erkmen '25 Parker Colantuono '22	Taylor Borges '22 Edward Gary '22 Clare Laroche '23
Connecticut College	Camels	Cj Mckenna '23 Thomas Whittemore '23 Walter Henry '23 William Bedford '23	Liam Gronda '25 Cecilia Bohan '24 Jean-Michel Bus '22 Alexandra Tillinghast '23 Katherine Wetzel '23 Margaret Benson '23
Brown University	Bears	Connor Nelson '24 Hunter Zonnenberg '23 Jack Murphy '22	Julia Reynolds '22 Izzy Cox '23 Lily Shore '24 Madeleine Montagner '22
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Christopher Lukens '23 Jonathan Chance '23 Sam Bonauto '25 Thomas Hall '25	Timmy Gee '25 Jondall Norris '25 John Seider '22 Cj Ricci '24
George Washington University	Colonials	Anthony Minder '24 Cameron Feves '22 Matthew Priebe '22 Michael Ehnot '22 Oscar Macgillivray '24	Matthew Priebe '22 Allison Forsyth '22 Genevieve Mumma '24 Abbie Chipps '25 Jack Umina '22
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Connell Phillipps '23 Nicholas Salvesen '22 Ryan Hamilton '23	Caroline James '24 Alex Boni '25 Maddy Saffer '24 Natasha Vallett '25 Sam Thompson '24

Conditions — 04/02/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 40% · Pressure 1013.7 hPa

Temperature

46°F

↑ 51°F ↓ 38°F

Feels like 37°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

11.4 kn

avg · max 13.0 kn

Gusts to 23.9 kn

From WNW (296°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover19% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity40% Pressure1013.7 hPa

What this breeze does at MIT — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at MIT in this breeze: a typical day (−0.02)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled fleet-race days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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