Tabor Academy '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.12 (fleet 3.41) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 46–19 (71%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 22–12 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 20–5 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 4–2 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (65 matches) the record is 46–19 against 39.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+6.6). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-25 | ISSA Team Racing Championship (Baker Trophy) | skipper | 2.28 | 3.33 | 8–6 | 5.8 | +1.05 | 1.3 | 15% |
| 2019-05-18 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 2.30 | 2.20 | 14–6 | 14.3 | −0.10 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2018-05-26 | High School Team Racing Nationals - Baker Trophy | skipper | 2.08 | 2.95 | 3–2 | 2.3 | +0.88 | 0.4 | 40% |
| 2018-05-19 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Fritz Mark Trophy) | skipper | 2.06 | 3.41 | 17–3 | 13.9 | +1.34 | 2.2 | 8% |
| 2017-05-27 | National Invitational Tournament (Founders Trophy) | skipper | 1.71 | 2.55 | 4–2 | 3.1 | +0.84 | 0.4 | 37% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Marion | Skipper | B | 5 | 1.4 | 3.87 |
| NESSA Fleet Racing Champs (O'Day Trophy) - 2019 | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.7 | 1.24 |
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 20 | 70% | — |
| ISSA Team Racing Championship (Baker Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| ISSA Fleet Race Nationals (Mallory Trophy) | Skipper | B | 6 | 15.0 | -0.64 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Fritz Mark Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 20 | 85% | — |
| Mallory Championship 2018 | Skipper | B | 7 | 11.6 | 0.70 |
| High School Team Racing Nationals - Baker Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Lawrence A. White Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.0 | 1.12 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| National Invitational Tournament (Founders Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 13 | 85% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Lawrence A. White Invitational | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.8 | 2.07 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Downeast | Crew | B | 4 | 4.2 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Anthony Minder |  George Washington University |
'24 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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