NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy)

HostSail Maine
Date05/18/2019
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatC420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Tabor Academy	Seawolves	14–6
2	The Hotchkiss School	Bearcats	12–8
3	St. George's School	Dragons	11–9
4	Brunswick School	Bruins	10–10
5	Milton Academy	Mustangs	7–7
6	Greenwich High School	Cardinals	6–8
7	Fairfield Prep	Jesuits	5–9
8	Marblehead High School	Fishwagons	3–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 6,425 team race matches sailed before 2019-05-18, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 41 of 68 matches (60%) with a log-loss of 0.653 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.66 ± 0.32: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 13% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Tabor Academy Seawolves	1	7.11 school +0.41	Jack Howard / Henry Worden 2.24 Anthony Minder / Cat Shakin 2.30 Jack Corbett / Gabe Mccollester 1.88 8–4 Jack Corbett / Harper Mckerrow 2.04 6–2	72%	14–6 (70%)	−0.3
2	The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	4	6.14 school −0.17	Christopher Lukens / Gwyneth Howell 2.35 John Eastman / Nicole Morikawa 1.54 Chapman Petersen / Casey Mason 2.13	53%	12–8 (60%)	+1.5
3	St. George's School Dragons	2	6.82 school +0.57	Hayden Earl / Liam Ballou 8–8 Tbo Antonietti / August Currier 7–5 Oscar Macgillivray / Wyatt Fogg 7–5 Tbo Antonietti / Wyatt Fogg 4–4 Oscar Macgillivray / Amelia Jessop 2–4 Hayden Earl / Colin Macgillivray 3–1 Oscar Macgillivray / Isabel Alex 2–0	66%	11–9 (55%)	−2.2
4	Brunswick School Bruins	3	6.37 school −0.11	Leyton Borcherding / Greer Sconzo William Michels / Alex Ohls William Michels / Angus Manion	57%	10–10 (50%)	−1.4
5	Milton Academy Mustangs	6	4.88 school +0.26	Hunter Zonnenberg / Abi Borggaard 1.79 Jamie Fox / Henry Taylor 2.02 5–3 Orson Gillick-Morris / Sam Barrett 5–3 Jamie Fox / Julia O'Connor 2.25 2–4 Orson Gillick-Morris / Amelia Carlson 2–4	35%	7–7 (50%)	+2.0
6	Greenwich High School Cardinals	5	5.21 school +0.52	Chris Tella / Gray Tella Max Anker / Olivier Geraghty 1.99 2–6 Aidan Iaconis / Thomas Barry 0.90 2–6 Max Anker / Demi Janis 1.99 4–2 Aidan Iaconis / Lily Ornstein 0.90 4–2	41%	6–8 (43%)	+0.2
7	Fairfield Prep Jesuits	8	4.25 school −0.19	Chase Reynolds / Garrett Cutler 1.59 Quinn Sheehan / Will Donovan Jamie Paul / Declan O'Donnell 1.57 4–4 Jamie Paul / Kevin Shanahan 1.58 1–5	24%	5–9 (36%)	+1.6
8	Marblehead High School Fishwagons	7	4.67	Eric O'Connor / Ryan Hamilton 2–8 Grant Adam / Gavin Dowley 2–6 Sam Bradley / Anna O'Connor 2–6 Grant Adam / Magdelaina Putnam 1–5 Eric O'Connor / Anders Kearney 1–3 Sam Bradley / Ryan Hamilton 1–3 Sam Bradley / Anders Kearney 0–2	31%	3–11 (21%)	−1.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
5	Milton Academy	4.88	5.75	7–7	4.9	+0.88	1.0	18%
7	Fairfield Prep	4.25	5.01	5–9	3.4	+0.76	0.7	23%
2	The Hotchkiss School	6.14	6.58	12–8	10.5	+0.44	0.4	32%
6	Greenwich High School	5.21	5.29	6–8	5.8	+0.09	0.0	57%
1	Tabor Academy	7.11	7.00	14–6	14.3	−0.10	0.0	67%
4	Brunswick School	6.37	5.94	10–10	11.4	−0.43	0.3	83%
3	St. George's School	6.82	6.16	11–9	13.2	−0.66	0.8	91%
8	Marblehead High School	4.67	3.94	3–11	4.4	−0.73	0.5	88%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Jamie Fox	Milton Academy	2.02	2.90	7–7	4.9	+0.88	1.0	18%
Orson Gillick-Morris	Milton Academy	0.40	1.27	7–7	4.9	+0.88	1.0	18%
Jamie Paul	Fairfield Prep	1.57	2.33	5–9	3.4	+0.76	0.7	23%
Chris Tella	Greenwich High School	1.50	1.59	6–8	5.8	+0.09	0.0	57%
Aidan Iaconis	Greenwich High School	0.90	0.98	6–8	5.8	+0.09	0.0	57%
Anthony Minder	Tabor Academy	2.30	2.20	14–6	14.3	−0.10	0.0	67%
Tbo Antonietti	St. George's School	2.02	1.37	11–9	13.2	−0.66	0.8	91%
Eric O'Connor	Marblehead High School	1.52	0.79	3–11	4.4	−0.73	0.5	88%
Sam Bradley	Marblehead High School	1.15	0.42	3–11	4.4	−0.73	0.5	88%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Fairfield Prep	St. George's School	13%	upset
1	2	Brunswick School	Milton Academy	76%
1	3	Tabor Academy	Marblehead High School	89%
1	4	Greenwich High School	The Hotchkiss School	32%	upset
1	5	Brunswick School	Fairfield Prep	83%
1	6	Tabor Academy	St. George's School	59%
1	7	Milton Academy	Greenwich High School	42%	upset
1	8	The Hotchkiss School	Marblehead High School	76%
1	9	Tabor Academy	Brunswick School	64%
1	10	Fairfield Prep	Greenwich High School	32%	upset
1	11	St. George's School	Marblehead High School	84%
1	12	Milton Academy	The Hotchkiss School	27%	upset
1	13	Tabor Academy	Greenwich High School	81%
1	14	Brunswick School	Marblehead High School	79%
1	15	Milton Academy	Fairfield Prep	60%
1	16	The Hotchkiss School	St. George's School	37%	upset
1	17	Greenwich High School	Marblehead High School	60%
1	18	Tabor Academy	Milton Academy	83%
1	19	Brunswick School	St. George's School	39%	upset
1	20	The Hotchkiss School	Fairfield Prep	82%
1	21	Milton Academy	Marblehead High School	57%
1	22	St. George's School	Greenwich High School	78%
1	23	Tabor Academy	Fairfield Prep	90%
1	24	Brunswick School	The Hotchkiss School	54%
1	25	St. George's School	Milton Academy	78%
1	26	Fairfield Prep	Marblehead High School	41%	upset
1	27	Brunswick School	Greenwich High School	71%
1	28	The Hotchkiss School	Tabor Academy	33%	upset
2	29	St. George's School	Fairfield Prep	88%
2	30	Milton Academy	Brunswick School	23%	upset
2	31	Tabor Academy	Marblehead High School	87%
2	32	The Hotchkiss School	Greenwich High School	66%
2	33	Fairfield Prep	Brunswick School	17%	upset
2	34	Tabor Academy	St. George's School	56%
2	35	Milton Academy	Greenwich High School	41%	upset
2	36	Marblehead High School	The Hotchkiss School	25%	upset
2	37	Tabor Academy	Brunswick School	63%
2	38	Greenwich High School	Fairfield Prep	68%
2	39	St. George's School	Marblehead High School	83%
2	40	The Hotchkiss School	Milton Academy	73%
2	41	Tabor Academy	Greenwich High School	80%
2	42	Marblehead High School	Brunswick School	22%	upset
2	43	Fairfield Prep	Milton Academy	39%	upset
2	44	St. George's School	The Hotchkiss School	63%
2	45	Greenwich High School	Marblehead High School	59%
2	46	Tabor Academy	Milton Academy	83%
2	47	Brunswick School	St. George's School	40%	upset
2	48	The Hotchkiss School	Fairfield Prep	81%
2	49	Milton Academy	Marblehead High School	55%
2	50	Greenwich High School	St. George's School	23%	upset
2	51	Tabor Academy	Fairfield Prep	90%
2	52	The Hotchkiss School	Brunswick School	45%	upset
2	53	St. George's School	Milton Academy	79%
2	54	Marblehead High School	Fairfield Prep	59%
2	55	Greenwich High School	Brunswick School	30%	upset
2	56	The Hotchkiss School	Tabor Academy	33%	upset
3	57	The Hotchkiss School	Brunswick School	45%	upset
3	58	St. George's School	Tabor Academy	44%	upset
3	59	St. George's School	The Hotchkiss School	63%
3	60	Tabor Academy	Brunswick School	63%
3	61	St. George's School	Brunswick School	60%
3	62	Tabor Academy	The Hotchkiss School	67%
4	63	Brunswick School	The Hotchkiss School	55%
4	64	St. George's School	Tabor Academy	45%	upset
4	65	The Hotchkiss School	St. George's School	37%	upset
4	66	Brunswick School	Tabor Academy	37%	upset
4	67	Brunswick School	St. George's School	40%	upset
4	68	The Hotchkiss School	Tabor Academy	33%	upset

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Jesuits	1-2-6	def.	Dragons	3-4-5
2	Bruins	1-2-3	def.	Mustangs	4-5-6
3	Seawolves	1-2-6	def.	Fishwagons	3-4-5
4	Cardinals	1-2-6	def.	Bearcats	3-4-5
5	Bruins	2-3-4	def.	Jesuits	1-5-6
6	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Dragons	3-4-6
7	Mustangs	1-3-4	def.	Cardinals	2-5-6
8	Bearcats	2-3-4	def.	Fishwagons	1-5-6
9	Seawolves	1-2-6	def.	Bruins	3-4-5
10	Jesuits	1-2-4	def.	Cardinals	3-5-6
11	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Fishwagons	4-5-6
12	Mustangs	1-2-5	def.	Bearcats	3-4-6
13	Seawolves	1-3-5	def.	Cardinals	2-4-6
14	Bruins	1-2-3	def.	Fishwagons	4-5-6
15	Mustangs	1-2-5	def.	Jesuits	3-4-6
16	Bearcats	1-2-4	def.	Dragons	3-5-6
17	Cardinals	1-2-5	def.	Fishwagons	3-4-6
18	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Mustangs	3-4-6
19	Bruins	1-2-6	def.	Dragons	3-4-5
20	Bearcats	1-2-4	def.	Jesuits	3-5-6
21	Mustangs	1-2-6	def.	Fishwagons	3-4-5
22	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Cardinals	3-4-6
23	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Jesuits	3-4-6
24	Bruins	1-3-6	def.	Bearcats	2-4-5
25	Dragons	2-3-4	def.	Mustangs	1-5-6
26	Jesuits	1-2-6	def.	Fishwagons	3-4-5
27	Bruins	1-2-5	def.	Cardinals	3-4-6
28	Bearcats	1-2-4	def.	Seawolves	3-5-6
29	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Jesuits	3-5-6
30	Mustangs	1-3-5	def.	Bruins	2-4-6
31	Seawolves	1-2-4	def.	Fishwagons	3-5-6
32	Bearcats	1-2-4	def.	Cardinals	3-5-6
33	Jesuits	1-4-5	def.	Bruins	2-3-6
34	Seawolves	1-2-6	def.	Dragons	3-4-5
35	Mustangs	1-4-5	def.	Cardinals	2-3-6
36	Fishwagons	1-3-6	def.	Bearcats	2-4-5
37	Seawolves	1-3-5	def.	Bruins	2-4-6
38	Cardinals	2-3-5	def.	Jesuits	1-4-6
39	Dragons	2-3-4	def.	Fishwagons	1-5-6
40	Bearcats	1-2-5	def.	Mustangs	3-4-6
41	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Cardinals	3-4-6
42	Fishwagons	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
43	Jesuits	1-2-6	def.	Mustangs	3-4-5
44	Dragons	1-3-4	def.	Bearcats	2-5-6
45	Cardinals	1-2-6	def.	Fishwagons	3-4-5
46	Seawolves	1-2-4	def.	Mustangs	3-5-6
47	Bruins	2-3-4	def.	Dragons	1-5-6
48	Bearcats	1-2-5	def.	Jesuits	3-4-6
49	Mustangs	1-2-4	def.	Fishwagons	3-5-6
50	Cardinals	2-3-5	def.	Dragons	1-4-6
51	Seawolves	2-3-4	def.	Jesuits	1-5-6
52	Bearcats	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
53	Dragons	2-3-4	def.	Mustangs	1-5-6
54	Fishwagons	1-2-3	def.	Jesuits	4-5-6
55	Cardinals	2-3-5	def.	Bruins	1-4-6 DSQ
56	Bearcats	1-3-5	def.	Seawolves	2-4-6
57	Bearcats	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
58	Dragons	1-3-6	def.	Seawolves	2-4-5
59	Dragons	1-4-5	def.	Bearcats	2-3-6
60	Seawolves	1-2-4	def.	Bruins	3-5-6
61	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
62	Seawolves	1-3-4	def.	Bearcats	2-5-6
63	Bruins	1-2-3	def.	Bearcats	4-5-6
64	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Seawolves	3-5-6
65	Bearcats	1-4-5	def.	Dragons	2-3-6
66	Bruins	1-2-6	def.	Seawolves	3-4-5
67	Bruins	1-2-6	def.	Dragons	3-4-5
68	Bearcats	2-5-6	def.	Seawolves	1-3-4 DSQ

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Tabor Academy	Seawolves	Anthony Minder '19 Jack Corbett '19 Jack Howard '19	Cat Shakin '19 Gabe Mccollester '19 Harper Mckerrow '19 Henry Worden '20
The Hotchkiss School	Bearcats	Chapman Petersen '22 Christopher Lukens '19 John Eastman '20	Casey Mason '19 Gwyneth Howell '20 Nicole Morikawa '21
St. George's School	Dragons	Hayden Earl '21 Oscar Macgillivray '19 Tbo Antonietti '20	Liam Ballou '19 Colin Macgillivray '19 Wyatt Fogg '19 Amelia Jessop '21 Isabel Alex '21 August Currier '20
Brunswick School	Bruins	Leyton Borcherding '21 William Michels '21	Greer Sconzo '23 Alex Ohls '24 Angus Manion '21
Milton Academy	Mustangs	Hunter Zonnenberg '20 Jamie Fox '21 Orson Gillick-Morris '20	Abi Borggaard '20 Henry Taylor '20 Julia O'Connor '20 Sam Barrett '21 Amelia Carlson '20
Greenwich High School	Cardinals	Aidan Iaconis '21 Chris Tella '21 Max Anker '20	Thomas Barry '20 Lily Ornstein '22 Gray Tella '22 Olivier Geraghty '20 Demi Janis '20
Fairfield Prep	Jesuits	Chase Reynolds '20 Jamie Paul '20 Quinn Sheehan '20	Garrett Cutler '20 Declan O'Donnell '20 Kevin Shanahan '23 Will Donovan '21
Marblehead High School	Fishwagons	Eric O'Connor '19 Grant Adam '19 Sam Bradley '19	Ryan Hamilton '19 Anders Kearney '20 Magdelaina Putnam '20 Gavin Dowley '20 Anna O'Connor '20

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →