Tabor Academy '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.04 (fleet 3.28) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 29–18 (62%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 22–12 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 3–6 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 4–0 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (47 matches) the record is 29–18 against 26.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.3). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-25 | ISSA Team Racing Championship (Baker Trophy) | skipper | 1.99 | 3.03 | 8–6 | 5.8 | +1.05 | 1.3 | 15% |
| 2019-05-18 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 1.88 | 1.78 | 14–6 | 14.3 | −0.10 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2018-05-26 | High School Team Racing Nationals - Baker Trophy | skipper | 2.25 | 1.17 | 3–6 | 4.5 | −1.08 | 0.9 | 93% |
| 2017-05-27 | National Invitational Tournament (Founders Trophy) | skipper | 1.74 | 4.74 | 4–0 | 2.1 | ≥+3.00 | 3.3 | 7% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Marion | Skipper | B | 4 | 1.2 | 4.31 |
| NESSA Fleet Racing Champs (O'Day Trophy) - 2019 | Skipper | B | 2 | 6.5 | 1.74 |
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 20 | 70% | — |
| ISSA Team Racing Championship (Baker Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| ISSA Fleet Race Nationals (Mallory Trophy) | Skipper | B | 8 | 15.2 | -0.71 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Mallory Championship 2018 | Skipper | A | 5 | 10.0 | 1.38 |
| High School Team Racing Nationals - Baker Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Lawrence A. White Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 10.0 | 0.74 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| National Invitational Tournament (Founders Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 13 | 85% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Lawrence A. White Invitational | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.9 | 0.53 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Downeast | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.0 | 2.38 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Jack Corbett |  Georgetown University |
'23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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