NESSA Fleet Racing Champs (O'Day Trophy) - 2019

HostThe Hotchkiss School
Date04/14/2019
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatC420/CFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	The Hotchkiss School	Bearcats	20	41	61
2	St. George's School	Dragons	45	19	64
3	Tabor Academy	Seawolves	37	59	96
4	Milton Academy	Mustangs	38	63	101
5	North Kingstown High School	Skippers	63	52	115
6	Brunswick School	Bruins	57	60	117
7	Manchester/Essex RHS	Hornets	56	64	120
8	Barrington High School	Eagles	50	75	125
9	The Prout School	Crusaders	67	69	136
10	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Vineyarders	94	49	143
11	Dover Sherborn RHS	Radiers	53	91	144
12	Greenwich Academy	Gator	102	49	151
13	Cambridge R&L School	Falcons	88	77	165
14	Newton Country Day School	Falcons	86	104	190
15	Boston College High School	Eagles	106	90	196

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
The Hotchkiss School	Bearcats	8	1	3	1	1	1	2	3	20	Christopher Lukens '19 Gwyneth Howell '20
Tabor Academy	Seawolves	2	12	10	3	3	5	1	1	37	Jack Howard '19 Menasha Leport '21
Milton Academy	Mustangs	3	3	4	2	13	2	4	7	38	Hunter Zonnenberg '20 Abigail Borggaard '20
St. George's School	Dragons	5	4	6	13	7	3	3	4	45	Hayden Earl '21 Caroline Benson '19
Barrington High School	Eagles	1	8	1	8	11	4	12	5	50	Charles Kreuzkamp '20 Kaleigh Morgan '19
Dover Sherborn RHS	Radiers	4	10	2	10	6	6	9	6	53	Eli Gleason '20 Hannah Fay '20
Manchester/Essex RHS	Hornets	6	6	7	4	10	10	5	8	56	Hannah Freeman '22 [1-8] Lena Brzezinski '19 [1-6] Ryan Clark '22 [7-8]
Brunswick School	Bruins	DSQ	5	8	9	2	9	6	2	57	William Michels '21 [1-8] Alex Ohls '24 [1-4] William Michels '21 [5-8]
North Kingstown High School	Skippers	11	2	5	5	5	13	13	9	63	Dixon Wixted '21 [1-6] Odey Hariri '20 [7-8] Nora Ong '19 [1-6]
The Prout School	Crusaders	9	7	9	7	4	8	11	12	67	Payton Canavan '19 Isabella De Santis '20
Newton Country Day School	Falcons	13	9	11	DSQ	8	7	7	15	86	Katelyn Mcgauley '20 Jamie Page '19
Cambridge R&L School	Falcons	7	14	12	12	9	15	8	11	88	Max Katz-Christy '23 Julia Rasmussen '23
Marthas Vineyard RHS	Vineyarders	12	13	14	11	12	12	10	10	94	Joe Serpa '20 Caleb Burt '21
Greenwich Academy	Gator	10	11	13	14	15	11	14	14	102	Sofia Debs '24 [1-8] Sofia Debs '24 [1-4] Honour Russell '23 [5-8]
Boston College High School	Eagles	14	15	15	6	14	14	15	13	106	Porter Bell '22 Buckeridge Tyler '19

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
St. George's School	Dragons	1	1	2	1	5	6	2	1	19	Tbo Antonietti '20 Amelia Jessop '21
The Hotchkiss School	Bearcats	2	12	4	3	3	2	3	12	41	Oliver Hurwitz '21 Elizabeth Koobatian '19
Greenwich Academy	Gator	4	5	10	13	4	3	1	9	49	Harned Ellie '22 Pedersen Naomi '21
Marthas Vineyard RHS	Vineyarders	9	2	7	8	1	7	5	10	49	Miles Wolff '22 Ashtyn Watts '21
North Kingstown High School	Skippers	6	6	9	4	2	5	9	11	52	Alex Dicenso '19 [1-8] Marisa Cogswell '19 [1-2] Julia Cotsonas '22 [3-8]
Tabor Academy	Seawolves	5	8	5	14	6	9	8	4	59	Jack Corbett '19 [1-2] Anthony Minder '19 [3-8] Gabe Mccollester '19 [1-2] Cat Shakin '19 [3-8]
Brunswick School	Bruins	3	4	1	DNF	DSQ	1	4	15	60	Leyton Borcherding '21 Greer Sconzo '23
Milton Academy	Mustangs	10	11	6	9	7	11	6	3	63	Jamie Fox '21 [1-6] Luke Monnich '21 [7-8] Julia O'Connor '20 [1-6] Alexandra Barron '20 [7-8]
Manchester/Essex RHS	Hornets	7	7	8	5	8	10	11	8	64	Luke Quine '19 Rowan Schanley '22
The Prout School	Crusaders	13	15	3	2	9	8	13	6	69	Avery Canavan '21 Noah Desantis '22
Barrington High School	Eagles	8	9	14	6	11	13	12	2	75	Josh Dillon '21 [1-8] Drew Dillon '19 [1-4, 7-8] Olin Guck '22 [5-6]
Cambridge R&L School	Falcons	11	3	13	12	13	4	14	7	77	Thomas Craciun '23 Marshall Rhodes '23
Boston College High School	Eagles	15	14	12	10	12	15	7	5	90	Dromey Patrick '20 Creamer Zachary '19
Dover Sherborn RHS	Radiers	14	13	11	7	10	12	10	14	91	Jack Green '20 [1-8] Sierra Devine '22 [1-2] Julia Mangeym '20 [3-8]
Newton Country Day School	Falcons	12	10	15	11	14	14	15	13	104	Jane Mathews '22 Kaitlyn Bradshaw '19

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.070+0.07

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
Barrington High School Eagles	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
Boston College High School Eagles	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
Brunswick School Bruins	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15
Cambridge R&L School Falcons	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16
Dover Sherborn RHS Radiers	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17
Greenwich Academy Gator	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18
Manchester/Essex RHS Hornets	13	13	15	15	17	17	19	19
Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders	14	14	16	16	18	18	20	20
Milton Academy Mustangs	15	15	17	17	19	19	21	21
Newton Country Day School Falcons	16	16	18	18	20	20	7	7
North Kingstown High School Skippers	17	17	19	19	21	21	8	8
St. George's School Dragons	18	18	20	20	7	7	9	9
Tabor Academy Seawolves	19	19	21	21	8	8	10	10
The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	20	20	7	7	9	9	11	11
The Prout School Crusaders	21	21	8	8	10	10	12	12

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
Barrington High School Eagles	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Boston College High School Eagles	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
Brunswick School Bruins	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Cambridge R&L School Falcons	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Dover Sherborn RHS Radiers	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Greenwich Academy Gator	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
Manchester/Essex RHS Hornets	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15
Milton Academy Mustangs	10	10	12	12	14	14	1	1
Newton Country Day School Falcons	11	11	13	13	15	15	2	2
North Kingstown High School Skippers	12	12	14	14	1	1	3	3
St. George's School Dragons	13	13	15	15	2	2	4	4
Tabor Academy Seawolves	14	14	1	1	3	3	5	5
The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	15	15	2	2	4	4	6	6
The Prout School Crusaders	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Barrington High School	Charles Kreuzkamp '20	Kaleigh Morgan '19
Eagles	Josh Dillon '21 [1-8]	Drew Dillon '19 [1-4, 7-8] Olin Guck '22 [5-6]
Boston College High School	Porter Bell '22	Buckeridge Tyler '19
Eagles	Dromey Patrick '20	Creamer Zachary '19
Brunswick School	William Michels '21 [1-8]	Alex Ohls '24 [1-4] William Michels '21 [5-8]
Bruins	Leyton Borcherding '21	Greer Sconzo '23
Cambridge R&L School	Max Katz-Christy '23	Julia Rasmussen '23
Falcons	Thomas Craciun '23	Marshall Rhodes '23
Dover Sherborn RHS	Eli Gleason '20	Hannah Fay '20
Radiers	Jack Green '20 [1-8]	Sierra Devine '22 [1-2] Julia Mangeym '20 [3-8]
Greenwich Academy	Sofia Debs '24 [1-8]	Sofia Debs '24 [1-4] Honour Russell '23 [5-8]
Gator	Harned Ellie '22	Pedersen Naomi '21
Manchester/Essex RHS	Hannah Freeman '22 [1-8]	Lena Brzezinski '19 [1-6] Ryan Clark '22 [7-8]
Hornets	Luke Quine '19	Rowan Schanley '22
Marthas Vineyard RHS	Joe Serpa '20	Caleb Burt '21
Vineyarders	Miles Wolff '22	Ashtyn Watts '21
Milton Academy	Hunter Zonnenberg '20	Abigail Borggaard '20
Mustangs	Jamie Fox '21 [1-6] Luke Monnich '21 [7-8]	Julia O'Connor '20 [1-6] Alexandra Barron '20 [7-8]
Newton Country Day School	Katelyn Mcgauley '20	Jamie Page '19
Falcons	Jane Mathews '22	Kaitlyn Bradshaw '19
North Kingstown High School	Dixon Wixted '21 [1-6] Odey Hariri '20 [7-8]	Nora Ong '19 [1-6]
Skippers	Alex Dicenso '19 [1-8]	Marisa Cogswell '19 [1-2] Julia Cotsonas '22 [3-8]
St. George's School	Hayden Earl '21	Caroline Benson '19
Dragons	Tbo Antonietti '20	Amelia Jessop '21
Tabor Academy	Jack Howard '19	Menasha Leport '21
Seawolves	Jack Corbett '19 [1-2] Anthony Minder '19 [3-8]	Gabe Mccollester '19 [1-2] Cat Shakin '19 [3-8]
The Hotchkiss School	Christopher Lukens '19	Gwyneth Howell '20
Bearcats	Oliver Hurwitz '21	Elizabeth Koobatian '19
The Prout School	Payton Canavan '19	Isabella De Santis '20
Crusaders	Avery Canavan '21	Noah Desantis '22

Conditions — 04/14/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 56% · Pressure 1010.9 hPa

Temperature

62°F

↑ 70°F ↓ 51°F

Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.0 kn

avg · max 10.6 kn

Gusts to 27.4 kn

From ESE (117°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover94% Sunshine5.0 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1010.9 hPa Rain0.03 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at The Hotchkiss School: a typical day (+0.01)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment −0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.00

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.15 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at The Hotchkiss School by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at The Hotchkiss School, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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