Greenwich Academy '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.92 (fleet 3.10) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 10–5 (67%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 10–5 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 10–5 against 8.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-14 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 2.05 | 2.68 | 10–5 | 8.5 | +0.63 | 0.5 | 29% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier @ UConn Avery Point | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.3 | 1.23 |
| NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Connecticut State Championship 2022 | Skipper | A | 7 | 4.7 | 1.58 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Phebe Corckran King Regatta | Skipper | A | 15 | 3.1 | 2.14 |
| NESSA Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.6 | 0.11 |
| Connecticut State Championship | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.5 | 0.40 |
| 2021 CT State Girls Fleet Racing Championship | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.5 | 2.12 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Greenwich | Skipper | B | 9 | 3.9 | 1.42 |
| NESSA Fleet Racing Champs (O'Day Trophy) - 2019 | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.1 | 1.61 |
| Herreshoff Qualifier-Sail Black Rock | Skipper | B | 7 | 2.4 | 2.32 |
| NESSA Girls' Championship (Herreshoff Trophy) | Skipper | B | 15 | 3.4 | 2.52 |
| Connecticut States | Skipper | B | 2 | 3.5 | 2.18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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