2021 CT State Girls Fleet Racing Championship

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Greenwich High School Greenwich High School Cardinals 10 12 22
2 Greenwich Academy Greenwich Academy Varsity 9 14 23
3 The Hotchkiss School The Hotchkiss School Bearcats 20 11 31
4 Darien High School Darien High School Varsity 25 24 49
5 Staples High School Staples High School Varsity 26 30 56
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Greenwich Academy Greenwich Academy Varsity 2 1 1 2 1 2 9 Harned Ellie '22 [1-6]
Atley Dimsey '27 [1-4]
Cordelia Weld '22 [5-6]
Greenwich High School Greenwich High School Cardinals 1 3 2 1 2 1 10 Elle Sykes '23
Lily Ornstein '22
The Hotchkiss School The Hotchkiss School Bearcats 3 2 5 3 4 3 20 Lucy Jervis '23
Sophie Davis '22
Darien High School Darien High School Varsity 5 4 4 5 3 4 25 Elizabeth Haidinger '22
Jillian Giordano '22
Staples High School Staples High School Varsity 4 5 3 4 5 5 26 Erin Durkin '22 [1-6]
Tori Holoubek-Sebok '22 [1-3]
Abbey Baldwin '23 [4-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
The Hotchkiss School The Hotchkiss School Bearcats 1 2 3 1 2 2 11 Helen O'Neill '23
Katie Farrington '22
Greenwich High School Greenwich High School Cardinals 2 1 1 2 3 3 12 Maddie Cook '21
Ellie Cook '22
Greenwich Academy Greenwich Academy Varsity 3 4 2 3 1 1 14 Chang Tatum '23 [1-6]
Cordelia Weld '22 [1-4]
Grayson Stengel '23 [5-6]
Darien High School Darien High School Varsity 4 3 4 5 4 4 24 Alexandra Meyer '24
Liza Mcintire '24
Staples High School Staples High School Varsity 5 5 5 4 5 DNF 30 Alan Becker '23 [1-6]
Abbey Baldwin '23 [1-3]
Tori Holoubek-Sebok '22 [4-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2021 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A
Darien High SchoolDarien High School Varsity1
Greenwich High SchoolGreenwich High School Cardinals3
Greenwich AcademyGreenwich Academy Varsity2
Staples High SchoolStaples High School Varsity4
The Hotchkiss SchoolThe Hotchkiss School Bearcats5

Division B

Team1B
Darien High SchoolDarien High School Varsity6
Greenwich High SchoolGreenwich High School Cardinals8
Greenwich AcademyGreenwich Academy Varsity7
Staples High SchoolStaples High School Varsity10
The Hotchkiss SchoolThe Hotchkiss School Bearcats11

Conditions — 05/23/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 49%  ·  Pressure 1011.7 hPa

Temperature

83°F
↑ 89°F   ↓ 73°F
Feels like 82°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.9 kn
avg  ·  max 12.5 kn
Gusts to 31.5 kn
From NW (312°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover77% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity49% Pressure1011.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Grass Island - Greenwich, CT: a typical day (+0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.12
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.20 ± 0.27)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Grass Island - Greenwich, CT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Grass Island - Greenwich, CT: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →