Greenwich Academy '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.06 (fleet 1.73) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 11–8 (58%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 1–3 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 10–5 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (19 matches) the record is 11–8 against 10.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-06 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 1.47 | 0.43 | 1–3 | 1.7 | −1.04 | 0.4 | 89% |
| 2022-05-14 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.16 | 1.79 | 10–5 | 8.5 | +0.63 | 0.5 | 29% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier @ UConn Avery Point | Skipper | B | 5 | 6.2 | 0.94 |
| NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Herreshoff Qualifier- Grass Island Greenwich | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.3 | -0.52 |
| NESSA Girls Championship (Herreshoff Trophy) | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.9 | 1.97 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Phebe Corckran King Regatta | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.2 | 0.37 |
| NESSA Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | B | 3 | 14.0 | — |
| Connecticut State Championship | Skipper | B | 3 | 6.0 | -1.01 |
| 2021 CT State Girls Fleet Racing Championship | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.3 | 1.67 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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