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Phebe Corckran King Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 47 90 137
2 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 62 82 144
3 Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 62 94 156
4 Greenwich Academy Greenwich Academy Varsity 47 115 162
5 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 89 77 166
6 Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 113 70 183
7 Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 132 65 197
8 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 125 73 198
9 Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen 114 123 237
10 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 103 136 239
11 Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Blue 137 124 261
12 Southwest High School Southwest High School Lakers 140 121 261
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 TOT Sailors
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 1 1 3 2 6 5 3 1 1 1 5 1 8 5 4 47 Steven Hardee '22
Mairead Reitzel '24
Greenwich Academy Greenwich Academy Varsity 3 2 2 5 3 4 1 4 4 3 6 4 3 1 2 47 Harned Ellie '22 [1-15]
Atley Dimsey '27 [1-6]
Honour Russell '23 [7-15]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 5 12 1 1 1 1 6 6 10 4 1 3 2 4 5 62 Ryan Ehnot '22
Mitchell Hnatt '24
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 7 6 5 10 7 3 7 2 2 2 2 5 1 2 1 62 Peter Barnard '23
Stella Potter '22
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 4 4 7 3 5 12 2 3 8 7 10 6 9 3 6 89 Brooke Schmelz '21
Ashley Abboud '22
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 6 7 6 9 9 11 10 10 3 5 3 8 7 6 3 103 Audrey Commerford '21
Makenna Labor '21
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 2 8 12 4 2 2 5 5 12 12 4 10 12 10 OCS 113 Declan Botwinick '21
Evan Harrison '21
Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen 10 5 11 11 8 7 8 9 11 6 7 2 4 7 8 114 Sam Rooks '22 [1-15]
Myles Feuer '25 [1-4]
Aurora Raber '24 [5-15]
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 12 11 10 6 11 8 4 7 9 8 8 7 6 8 10 125 Jacob Zils '23
Carmen Lineer '23
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 8 9 4 8 4 10 9 11 6 10 12 9 11 12 9 132 Gavin Sanborn '21 [1-12, 15]
Neddie Clews '21 [13-14]
Valyn Mogensen '22 [1-3, 9-10]
Fox Fernald '22 [4-8, 11-15]
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Blue 9 3 8 12 12 9 12 12 7 9 11 12 5 9 7 137 Henry Gonzalez '21
Paige Gorman '21
Southwest High School Southwest High School Lakers 11 10 9 7 10 6 11 8 5 11 9 11 10 11 11 140 Calvin Lamosse '21 [1-15]
Sam Fider '22 [1-4, 9-12]
Gints Pelecis '21 [5-8, 13-15]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 TOT Sailors
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 9 4 9 1 6 3 6 9 2 4 2 1 2 3 4 65 Eva Ermlich '22 [1-15]
Alice Thompson '21 [1-4, 9-12]
Neddie Clews '21 [5-8]
Valyn Mogensen '22 [13-15]
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 2 1 4 6 3 2 4 4 9 10 6 11 4 1 3 70 Everett Botwinick '22 [1-15]
Iliana Vasslides '23 [1-12]
Lindsay Walsh '23 [13-15]
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 4 7 2 8 4 5 3 5 8 3 10 4 6 2 2 73 Max Sigel '22
Emma Komis '22
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 7 3 8 2 9 6 2 2 4 8 5 3 5 8 5 77 Alexa Whitman '22 [1-15]
Grace Bray '23 [1-12]
Jack Whitman '23 [13-15]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 6 9 1 7 1 4 5 3 7 11 3 2 1 10 12 82 Colin Guerrera '22
Nicholas Cunha '23
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 1 12 7 4 7 7 1 6 5 6 8 7 7 11 1 90 Lilly Jette '21
Harry Fredericks '22
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 3 10 11 5 11 10 7 1 3 1 7 9 3 4 9 94 Jack Baldwin '22
Olivia Schmitt '22
Greenwich Academy Greenwich Academy Varsity 10 5 6 12 5 8 11 8 10 7 1 5 8 12 7 115 Sofia Debs '24 [1-4, 9-10]
Chang Tatum '23 [5-8, 11-15]
Honour Russell '23 [1-4]
Grayson Stengel '23 [5-15]
Southwest High School Southwest High School Lakers 5 6 10 10 8 9 8 10 1 9 12 6 10 7 10 121 James Jagielski '21 [1-15]
Helene Schroeder '22 [1-4, 9-12]
Mason Pirner '21 [5-8, 13-15]
Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen 11 11 12 11 2 1 10 7 11 5 11 8 9 6 8 123 James Leavitt '22
Ryleigh Raber '23
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Blue 8 8 3 3 10 11 9 11 12 2 9 10 12 5 11 124 Charlie Gonzalez '23
Jack Harman '23
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 12 2 5 9 12 12 12 12 6 12 4 12 11 9 6 136 Tehya Gaines '21 [1]
Sterling Maggard '23 [2-15]
Sterling Maggard '23 [1]
Tehya Gaines '21 [2-8]
Kyle Engel '23 [9-15]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A15A
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts111111111111111
Cranbrook KingswoodCranbrook Kingswood Blue333333333333333
Falmouth High School (ME)Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen555555555555555
Greenwich AcademyGreenwich Academy Varsity777777777777777
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders999999999999999
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers111111111111111111111111111111
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs131313131313131313131313131313
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers151515151515151515151515151515
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Lakers171717171717171717171717171717
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, ILSaint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack191919191919191919191919191919
The Stony Brook SchoolThe Stony Brook School Bears212121212121212121212121212121
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners232323232323232323232323232323

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B15B
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts222222222222222
Cranbrook KingswoodCranbrook Kingswood Blue444444444444444
Falmouth High School (ME)Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen666666666666666
Greenwich AcademyGreenwich Academy Varsity888888888888888
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders101010101010101010101010101010
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers121212121212121212121212121212
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs141414141414141414141414141414
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers161616161616161616161616161616
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Lakers181818181818181818181818181818
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, ILSaint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack202020202020202020202020202020
The Stony Brook SchoolThe Stony Brook School Bears222222222222222222222222222222
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners242424242424242424242424242424
School / Team SkipperCrew
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Ryan Ehnot '22 Mitchell Hnatt '24
Colts Colin Guerrera '22 Nicholas Cunha '23
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Henry Gonzalez '21 Paige Gorman '21
Blue Charlie Gonzalez '23 Jack Harman '23
Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Sam Rooks '22 [1-15] Myles Feuer '25 [1-4]
Aurora Raber '24 [5-15]
Yachtsmen James Leavitt '22 Ryleigh Raber '23
Greenwich Academy Greenwich Academy Harned Ellie '22 [1-15] Atley Dimsey '27 [1-6]
Honour Russell '23 [7-15]
Varsity Sofia Debs '24 [1-4, 9-10]
Chang Tatum '23 [5-8, 11-15]		 Honour Russell '23 [1-4]
Grayson Stengel '23 [5-15]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Audrey Commerford '21 Makenna Labor '21
Raiders Tehya Gaines '21 [1]
Sterling Maggard '23 [2-15]		 Sterling Maggard '23 [1]
Tehya Gaines '21 [2-8]
Kyle Engel '23 [9-15]
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Jacob Zils '23 Carmen Lineer '23
Skippers Max Sigel '22 Emma Komis '22
Portland High School Portland High School Gavin Sanborn '21 [1-12, 15]
Neddie Clews '21 [13-14]		 Valyn Mogensen '22 [1-3, 9-10]
Fox Fernald '22 [4-8, 11-15]
Bulldogs Eva Ermlich '22 [1-15] Alice Thompson '21 [1-4, 9-12]
Neddie Clews '21 [5-8]
Valyn Mogensen '22 [13-15]
Ranney School Ranney School Brooke Schmelz '21 Ashley Abboud '22
Panthers Alexa Whitman '22 [1-15] Grace Bray '23 [1-12]
Jack Whitman '23 [13-15]
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Peter Barnard '23 Stella Potter '22
Wolfpack Jack Baldwin '22 Olivia Schmitt '22
Southwest High School Southwest High School Calvin Lamosse '21 [1-15] Sam Fider '22 [1-4, 9-12]
Gints Pelecis '21 [5-8, 13-15]
Lakers James Jagielski '21 [1-15] Helene Schroeder '22 [1-4, 9-12]
Mason Pirner '21 [5-8, 13-15]
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Steven Hardee '22 Mairead Reitzel '24
Bears Lilly Jette '21 Harry Fredericks '22
Toms River North Toms River North Declan Botwinick '21 Evan Harrison '21
Mariners Everett Botwinick '22 [1-15] Iliana Vasslides '23 [1-12]
Lindsay Walsh '23 [13-15]

Conditions — 06/05/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1016.0 hPa

Temperature

83°F
↑ 88°F   ↓ 72°F
Feels like 87°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.8 kn
avg  ·  max 6.5 kn
Gusts to 14.6 kn
From SW (233°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover22% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1016.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 7 kn · SE 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Annapolis Yacht Club: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.08 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.15
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.27 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Annapolis Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Annapolis Yacht Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →